Meta Platforms 拥有最大的短期和长期增长潜力:其 News AI 应用在不到 30 天内下载量达到 700 万次,是最快的,AI 智能体/眼镜可能让它成为下一个 Apple。相对于保守的 900 美元价值,它被低估了 17%;FactSet 的增长数据意味着 2,000 美元。它短期可能下跌,但至少值 900 美元。
逐段跳播
我持仓的第二类股票是超大规模云服务商。超大规模云服务商指的是 Google、Microsoft、Amazon 和 Meta。如果你看这些公司,它们的一部分业务聚焦于 AI 资本支出和数据中心建设,对吧?
但并非全部。它们另一部分业务是通过其他方式赚钱。对 Meta 和 Google 来说,它们靠广告赚钱。当然,现在 Meta 正在进军面向消费者的 AI 智能体,以及像 Meta Glasses 这样的设备。
还有 Amazon,它靠广告、电商和物流赚钱。所以,大公司有很多很多收入来源。那么,当 AI 资本支出增长放缓时,哪些板块会受到最大冲击?最大冲击会在这里,对吧?一旦 AI 热潮放缓,所有这些都会受到更大的冲击。
那么,这部分业务会受到怎样的影响?它们的一部分业务可能会受影响,但另一部分可能表现非常好,因为当人们开始想:“如果它们在资本支出上花得更少,如果 Microsoft、Meta 和 Amazon 花得更少,那么它们的利润就会回升。”
所以,它们实际上可能表现非常好。如果 AI 资本支出增长放缓,它们可能表现非常好。也可能不会。所以,这有点像是五五开的情况,因为它们一只脚在 AI 里,一只脚在 AI 支出之外。
The second category of my stocks is the hyperscalers . Hyperscalers are Google, Microsoft, Amazon , and Meta. Now, if you look at these companies, part of their business is focused on AI capital expenditure and building data centers , right?
But not all of it. Another part of their business is making money in other ways. For Meta and Google, they make money from Advertising. And of course, now Meta is moving into consumer AI agents , and into devices like Meta Glasses, okay?
You have Amazon, which makes money from advertising, e-commerce, and logistics. So, large companies have many, many revenue streams. So, when AI capital expenditure growth slows , which sectors will take the biggest hit?
The biggest hit will be here, right? All of these will take a bigger hit once the AI hype slows, okay? Now, how will that part be affected? Well, part of their business might be affected, but another part might do very well , because when people start thinking, "Well, if they're spending less on capital expenditure, if Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are spending less, then their profits will go back up."
So, they could actually do very well . They could do very well if AI capital expenditure growth slows . Or they might not, okay? So, this is a bit of a 50/50 situation because they have one foot in AI and one foot out of AI spending, okay?
给你大致看一下这个投资组合,就像我说的,我最大的赢家是 Fortnite。你可以看到上面 Fortnite 涨了212%。我有 Palo Alto 涨了148%,CrowdStrike 涨了217%,当然,那些大公司贡献也不错。
Amazon 涨了119%,Alphabet(Google)涨了221%,Nvidia 涨了209%,MetaTrader 涨了114%,Microsoft 涨了67%,还有一些我持有的抗泡沫股票,比如医疗保健类的 United Health,涨了26%,曾经更高,但之后略有回落。
我可以再加仓 UnitedHealth,HCA Healthcare 涨了32%,GlobalX Defense 涨了17%。
To give you a glimpse of the portfolio, like I said, my biggest winners are Fortnite. You can see Fortnite up there, 212%. I have Palo Alto up 148%, CrowdStrike up 217%, and of course, the big companies are contributing well.
Amazon up 119%, Alphabet ( Google) up 221%, Nvidia up 209%, MetaTrader up 114%, Microsoft up 67%, and some of my other anti-bubble stocks like healthcare, United Health, up 26%, was even higher but has since dipped slightly.
I could add more to UnitedHealth, HCA Healthcare up 32%, and GlobalX Defense up 17%,
另一方面,我认为短期内、当然长期也一样,增长潜力最大的云计算公司实际上是 Meta Platforms,它旗下拥有 Facebook 和 WhatsApp。
On the other hand, I believe that the cloud computing company with the greatest potential for growth in the short term, and of course in the long term as well, is actually Meta Platforms. Which owns Facebook and WhatsApp.
原因是,首先,他们推出了自己的新闻应用,现在它是美国下载量最高的应用。它在美国以外无法使用。事实上,它在 Google Play Store 上排名第一,在 Apple App Store 上也排名第一。
事实上,这相当令人印象深刻。你可以看到,这个“News”应用在不到30天内就实现了700万次下载。
The reason is, firstly, that they launched their own news app which is now the most downloaded app in the United States . It is not available outside the United States . In fact, it is number one on the Google Play Store, and also number one on the Apple App Store.
In fact, it was quite impressive . You can see that the "News" app achieved 7 million downloads in less than 30 days.
现在,如果你把它和 ChatGPT 比较,ChatGPT 在仅仅75天后就达到了700万次下载。Grok 大约用了165天,而 Gemini 这个独立应用用了180天才达到300万次下载。
但这个“News”应用仍然是用得最快的应用,不是吗?
Now, if you compare it to ChatGPT, ChatGPT reached 7 million downloads after only 75 days. Grok took about 165 days, while Gemini, the standalone app, took 180 days to reach 3 million downloads.
But the "News" app is still the fastest- used app, isn't it?
那么,这个“News”应用是什么?“News”是一个由 AI 驱动的面向消费者的代理应用,人们现在可以用它来购物、订酒店、订机票、代自己发邮件等等。因此,它正获得极高的人气,我真的很期待它登陆新加坡和世界其他地区。
So, what is the "News" app? "News" is an AI-powered consumer proxy application that people can now use to shop, book hotels, book flights, send emails on their behalf, and things like that .
Therefore, it is gaining immense popularity and I am really looking forward to its arrival in Singapore and the rest of the world.
当然,Meta 还推出了一整系列新设备,就是 Meta 眼镜。如果你问我的看法,Meta 似乎正在变成下一个 Apple。而且我认为,他们很有可能真的成功做到这一点。
And of course, Meta launched a whole series of new devices. Those are Meta glasses. It seems that Meta is turning into the next Apple, if you ask me for my opinion. And I think it is very possible that they will actually succeed in achieving that.
而现在,就在 Meta 推出 Muse 之后不久,ChatGPT 推出了 Dots,这是他们自己版本的面向消费者的 AI 智能体。你可以看到,在不久的将来,我们都会拥有自己的 AI 智能体,帮我们出去买东西、比价、订酒店和机票、买书、发邮件。它会为我们做一切事情。
And now, very soon after Meta launched Muse, ChatGPT has launched Dots , their own version of an AI agent for consumers . You can see that in the near future, we will all have our own AI agents helping us go out and buy things, compare prices, book hotels and flights, buy books, and send emails . He'll do everything for us, okay?
问题是,这对其他公司意味着什么?以前是人自己去 Amazon 或 Agoda,现在智能体会代我们完成这些购买。这意味着什么?当然,对某些股票可能会有一些负面影响,也会有一些正面影响。
所以,这里快速概览一下这场新消费级 AI 智能体革命中的赢家和输家,我认为这场革命正是 Meta 刚刚开启的。
The question is, what are the implications for other companies where, instead of a person going to Amazon or Agoda, agents will now make these purchases on our behalf? What are the implications?
Of course, there may be some negative repercussions for certain stocks and some positive repercussions. So, here's a quick overview of the winners and losers in the new consumer AI agent revolution , which I think Meta has just launched , okay?
但另一方面,这些是在面向消费者的 AI 智能体世界里可能受到正面影响的股票。比如你自己的智能体平台和模型。Meta、Microsoft 和 Alphabet。
But on the other hand, these are the stocks that could be positively impacted in the world of consumer-oriented AI agents. For example, your own agent platforms and models. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
哦,我忘了提 Mita。抱歉,让我们再回到 Meta。我聊得太投入,跑题跑过了 Meta。所以,就像我说的,我认为 Meta 拥有最大的上行潜力之一,因为首先,它被低估了。
Oh , I forgot to mention Mita. Let's go back to Meta again , sorry. I got caught up in the conversation and went beyond Meta. So, as I said, I think Meta has one of the greatest upside potentials, because firstly, it is undervalued .
如果你看 Meta 的内在价值,你可以看到……让我在这里登录一下。是的。目前,基于900美元的内在价值,Meta 仍被低估了17%。因此,它仍然被低估。
If you look at Meta's intrinsic value, you can see that... Let me log in here. Yes. Currently, Meta is still undervalued by 17% based on an intrinsic value of $900. Therefore, it is still undervalued .
但请再次记住,这个由 Oracle Value 得出的900美元内在价值,是一个非常保守的估计。非常保守,不是吗?
But bear in mind again that this intrinsic value of $900, derived from Oracle Value, is a very conservative estimate . Very reserved, isn't it?
但如果你采用基于 FactSet 一致预期、分析师预期的实际贴现现金流,也就是未来五年18%的增长,以及20%的长期增长……抱歉。3到5年18%的增长,以及24%的长期增长,那么 Meta 股票的内在价值就是2000美元。
2000美元,对吧?这是当前价格的两倍,或者基于最终贴现自由现金流,是1300美元。所以,如果你原样采用 FactSet 的这些增长率,这就是评估结果。
But if you take the actual discounted cash flow based on FactSet consensus estimates, analyst estimates, which is 18% growth in the next five years, and long-term growth of 20%... sorry.
With 18% growth over 3 to 5 years, and 24% long-term growth, you're looking at an intrinsic value of $2,000 for Meta stock. $2000, right? That is double the price today, or based on a final discounted free cash flow, $1300.
So , this is the assessment if you take these growth rates from FactSet as they are.
但由于 Oracle Value 是保守的,它把增长率上限设为15%,不会更高。这使估值降至900美元,而按此计算仍被低估了17%。
But because Oracle Value is conservative, it caps its growth rate at 15%, no more. This reduces the valuation to $900, which is still undervalued by 17%.
话虽如此,这并不意味着 Meta 短期内不会下跌,因为短期价格是由操纵和情绪驱动的。但我要说的是,它至少值900美元。这就是我要说的。它会涨到那里的。我不知道什么时候。也许下周,也许明年,也许年底。我不知道,对吧?但它值900美元。
Now, having said that, it does not mean that Meta cannot fall in the short term, because short-term prices are driven by manipulation and emotions. But what I 'm saying is that it's worth at least $900.
That's what I'm saying, okay? He will get there. Um, I don't know when. Maybe next week, maybe next year, or maybe the end of the year. I don't know, do I ? But it's worth $900.
如果你看价格走势,你可以看到它在这里盘整。不是吗?这主要是由于社交媒体成瘾问题,那给系统带来了压力。但现在一切都已解决,而且他们刚刚推出了一款突破性的新 AI 模型,我们可能会看到突破,我们可能会见证 Meta Platforms 的大幅上涨。这也是我的一个主要投资重心。
If you look at the price movement, you can see that it is consolidating here. Isn't that so? This is mainly due to the issue of social media addiction, which was putting a strain on the system.
But now that everything has been resolved, and they have just launched a groundbreaking new AI model, we may see a breakthrough, and we may witness a massive rise for Meta Platforms.
Well , this is one of my major investment centers as well.
第二个篮子将是我提到的大型云计算公司,Microsoft、Google 和 Meta,我认为它们目前上涨的机会最大,因为它们的 Muse 智能体以及几款领先的新 AI 模型的推出。
The second basket will be the big cloud computing companies I mentioned, Microsoft, Google and Meta, which I think have the biggest chance of rising right now because of their Muse agent and the launch of several of their new leading AI models.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Adam Khoo 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。