META 拥有的是变现能力,而不只是定价能力:广告价格同比上涨 12%、展示量同比上涨 14%,推动广告收入增长 27%,且各地区均实现增长。本季度应会表现强劲,但若再次上调资本开支指引,可能令投资者不安;在资本开支周期中,META 仍值得持有。
逐段跳播
例如,我们有 SpaceX、Netflix、Meta 和 Tesla 这样的公司,它们都将在接下来几天内发布财报,还有很多其他公司也是。
For example, we have companies like SpaceX and Netflix and Meta and Tesla all reporting over the next couple of days, plus a lot of other ones.
接下来,我们来到周三盘后,轮到 Meta 和 Tesla。我们先来看看 Meta。Meta 是一家有趣的公司,因为你把它看作一家拍卖公司,但他们拥有真正的定价权。
Next, we move on to Wednesday aftermarket close and we get into Meta and Tesla. Let's go ahead and take a look at Meta. Meta is an interesting company because you view it as more of an auction company, but they have real pricing power.
Meta 产品上的广告价格每个季度都在持续攀升。这是过去四个季度的平均广告价格同比变化。从 2025 年第二季度的增长 9%,然后是增长 10%、增长 6%、增长 12%,上个季度是增长 12%。
The prices of advertising on Meta's products continually climb every single quarter. Here's the average ad price year-over-year in the past four quarters. It went from Q2 2025 plus 9%.
Then plus 10% plus 6% plus 12% last quarter it was plus 12%.
所以 Meta 从他们的服务中每条广告赚到更多的钱。这并不是因为他们展示的广告更少了。事实上恰恰相反。他们展示的广告更多了。所以,Meta 在展示更多广告的同时,每条广告赚到更多的钱。
So Meta is getting more money per ad on their service. Now this is not because they're showing fewer ads. In fact, the opposite is true. They're showing more ads. So, Meta is getting more money per ad while showing more ads.
广告展示量同比增长 14%。平均广告价格增长 12%。广告总收入增长 27%。当你有一个价格越来越高、而且每个季度都卖出越来越多的产品时,这是一个非常强大的组合。
Ad impressions are up 14% year-over-year. The average ad price is up 12%. Total advertising revenue is up 27%. It's a very powerful mix when you have a product that the price is getting higher and you're selling more and more of them every single quarter.
现在,我会把这称为定价权,但这会给人一种印象,好像 Meta 在提价。好像他们是像软件公司那样,由他们来决定广告主付多少钱。其实只是广告主在互相竞价。所以与其说是定价权,我更愿意把这称为变现能力。
Now, I would call this pricing power, but that gives you the impression that Meta is like raising prices. Like they're the ones deciding as if they're a software company what advertisers will pay.
It's just advertisers bidding against themselves. So instead of pricing power, I would refer to this as monetization power.
尽管他们没有直接提价,但 Meta 正在创造一个环境,让他们从更多客户那里赚到更多的钱,同时卖出更多的广告库存。而且他们是有意为之。他们通过让广告获得更高的回报、让在他們的产品上投放广告变得更容易、提供更多智能代理工具来制作更有针对性的广告来实现这一点。
他们让自己的服务更有娱乐性,这样人们会停留更久,在这个过程中看到更多广告,而这些广告的转化效果也更好。
Even though they're not directly raising prices, Meta is creating an environment where they get more money from more of their customers while selling more inventory at the same time.
And they are doing that intentionally. They are doing it by making higher returns on their advertising, making it easier to advertise on their product, more agentic tools to create more targeted ads.
They're making their service more entertaining, so people stay on them longer, watch more ads in the process, and those ads convert better.
而我认为在这种情况下,变现能力比定价权更好,因为这不是 Meta 拥有一个被动受众、然后一个季度又一个季度地小幅提价的局面。不是的,他们是在让整个环境变得更好、产品更好、服务更好,他们展示更多广告,而人们愿意为此支付更多的钱。
And I think in this case, monetization power is better than pricing power because this isn't a situation where Meta has a captive audience and they are just edging the price up quarter after quarter.
No, they are making the entire environment better, their products better, their services better, they're showing more ads, and people are willingly paying more money for it.
Meta 的数据简直惊人。他们的日活跃用户数持续增长。他们的广告展示量每个季度都在持续增长。你甚至可以看到它在 2025 年开始重新加速。
The meta numbers are insane. in their daily active people growth continues to grow. Their advertising impression growth continues to grow every single quarter. You can even see it start to speed back up in 2025.
这些是各个不同的地区。按地区划分的收入也是多元化的。所以,这家公司在全球每一个角落都在增长。凡是有互联网连接的地方,他们都在赚钱。Meta 的各种产品在全球被广泛采用。这一切看起来都非常棒。
These are all the different regions. The revenue by geography is also diversified. So, this company's growing in every quadrant of planet earth. They're making money everywhere where people have internet connections.
Met is widely adopted with different products across the globe. All of this looks amazing.
但在这个季度,我认为投资者会说:“好吧,业务很棒。Muse 很棒。这一切看起来都不错,但你们在资本开支上花了多少钱?”我认为他们会再次上调资本开支指引。我认为这可能会让投资者感到不安。这是我这个季度做出的重大判断。
But with this quarter, I think investors are going to go, "All right, the business is amazing. Muse is amazing. All of this looks good, but how much money are you spending on capex?
I think they're going to raise their capex guidance again. I think it's going to potentially spook investors. That's the big calculation I make this quarter.
进入这个季度,Meta 显然会有一个非常强劲的季度,但投资者会挠头思考 Mark Zuckerberg 是否真的在资本开支上花得太多了。而对我来说,我认为这只股票非常值得在整个资本开支周期中持有。
Going into it, Meta is clearly going to have a super strong quarter, but investors will be scratching their heads of whether or not Mark Zuckerberg is really spending too much on capex.
And for me, I think this one is well worth holding through the capex cycle.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 8 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。