META 尽管利润率强劲、盈利能力达A+级、现金流足以覆盖利息，但仍处于公允价值，不过估值让他有些担忧。图表可能是看跌双顶，股价可能回落至约590的成交密集区（point of control），但不会跌至539-557的低点；财报暗示约40美元的波动，即650-730区间。
逐段跳播
David 在问 Meta 的财报交易。是的，当然可以。我们会聊这个，当然财报交易是非常具体的。财报前后会发生两件事。第一件事是波动率崩塌。所以我们有很高的隐含波动率。它之所以高，是因为存在未知因素。
所以股票可能会非常波动。第二件事是方向性走势。这两者是不相关的。所以当我们看隐含波动率时，我们知道它会崩塌，因为事件是未知的，然后它会变成已知，因此财报事件前很高的隐含波动率在财报事件后会变低。
我们知道这会发生，但还有第二个因素，就是方向。如果股票在财报后上涨，那会把隐含波动率压得更低，因为股票上涨时，它们的潜在波动空间就更小。就像，哦，我们财报不错，股票在涨。这很好。
大家都很兴奋。没有太多担忧。隐含波动率通常会下降。所以我们有两件事可以推动隐含波动率下降。我们有财报事件本身，还有股票潜在的上行。不过，有东西可以制造更多内在的，不是内在，是有东西可以促成更高的隐含波动率，那就是股票下跌。
所以有些时候，有些事件里隐含波动率不会崩塌那么多。它仍然很高，也仍然会降下来。只是可能降得没那么多。但总的来说，当我做财报交易时，我是在寻找高波动率的交易。其次，我在寻找价格走势。所以，我们会看一看。我们会深入聊这个。
David is asking about meta earnings play. Yeah, absolutely. So we we'll talk about that and of course earnings plays are very specific. We have we have two things that happen over earnings.
The first thing that happens is that we have a volatility collapse. So we have a a high implied volatility. The reason that it's high is because we have an unknown factor. So we have uh it the stock could be very volatile.
The second thing that happens is that we have a directional move. These are uncorrelated. So when when we look at the implied volatility we know it will collapse because the event is unknown and then it will become known and therefore the implied volatility which is high prior to the earnings event will be low post earnings event.
We know that that occurs, but there's a that second factor which is the direction. And if the stock moves up after earnings, then that drives the implied volatility even lower because as stocks move up, there's less potential movement for them.
There's like, oh, we had a good earnings, the stock is moving up. This is good. Everybody's euphoric. There's not a lot of worry. Implied volatility typically drops. So we have two things that can drive implied volatility to decrease.
We have the earnings event itself and we have the potential stock movement to the upside. Now there is something that can create more intrinsic uh not intrinsic but there's something that can uh there's something that can contribute to higher implied volatility and that is a down move in the stock.
So there is occasions, there are events when the implied volatility doesn't collapse as much. It's still high and it still comes down. It just may not come down as much. But in general, when I'm playing earnings, I am looking for high volatility trades.
Secondarily, I'm looking for the price movement. So, we'll we'll take a look. We're going to get into that.
我们来看看 Meta。我们可以看到这里是一张完全不同的图。这些都是大公司。这些都是大市值公司。我们看到了一些走势。现在，这一张不太清晰，但我们可以看到这个控制点，它出现在我们看到价格走势在其附近交易的时候。
我们可以看到价格朝一个方向或另一个方向移动。当它在这里的时候，当它在控制点附近积累的时候，我们看到了这个向上的跳空。现在，这可能是一个小双顶，这预示着看跌走势。我对这个的看法是，我们通常会跌到更接近正常的控制点，因为这是很多人买入的地方。
所以卖方在上方获利了结，买方在价格跌到200日移动均线下方或控制点附近时买入。
Let's look at Meta. And we can see a totally different chart here. You know, these are these are big companies. These are big market caps. And we saw some some action. Now, this one is not so clear, but we we can see this point of control that occurred when we when we saw the price action trading around.
We can see that there's a move one way or the other. And this when it was here, when it was kind of loading up around this point of control, we saw this gap to the upside. Now, this could be a little double top, which is in indicates a a bearish move.
And my thinking on this is that we would typically be trading down closer to the the normal the point of control because this is where a lot of people were buying. So sellers are taking profits above and buyers are buying when we get down below the 200 day moving average or around this point of control.
当然，Meta 即将发布这份财报。我们可以在 Trading View 底部这里看到。是10月21日周三晚上。所以那就是明天，收盘后我们会有一份财报发布。从这张图来看，我会做两件事。
第一件我会看200日移动均线在哪里。这非常非常重要。它大约在632这个水平。第二件我会看这个控制点在哪里。它大约在590。然后我会去一些服务上看看 Meta 在财报前的潜在价值或公允价值是多少。
我们不知道财报后会是多少。但如果我们现在看 Meta，我们可以看到公允价值是689。股票在689交易。所以它就像，就在那里。它正好在公允价值。这很好。当我们看高于公允价值的股票时，这是一件好事。
如果我们看，我们在 seeking alpha 上看 Meta 的估值显示为 F。所以这显示它略微高估。investing.com 显示它处于公允价值。盈利能力是 A+。在高利率环境下，这是非常重要的一点。
所以我们需要知道他们在赚很多钱，而且他们是盈利的。不是他们闲着不赚钱。
And Meta of course has this earnings coming up. So, we can see that here on Trading View right down at the bottom. We've got uh Wednesday, October 21st in the evening. So that is tomorrow uh after the close we have a we have a earnings report coming out.
What I would do from looking at this chart is I would do two things. First thing I would look at is where the 200 day moving average is. This is very very important. It's around that 632 level.
Second thing I would look at is where this point of control is. It's around 590. And then I would go to some services and I would take a look at what what the potential or the what the fair market value is of Meta going into the earnings.
We don't know what it will be after. But if we were to look at Meta right now, we can see fair value being 689. Stocks trading at 689. So it's like right it's right there. It's right at at fair value.
This is good. This is a good thing when we look at stocks that are above uh fair value. If we were to look at um so we look at uh meta here on seeking alpha uh valuation showing as an F.
So this is showing it's slightly overvalued. This that investing.com showing that it's at fair value. Profitability is an A+. This is something very important in high interest rate environments.
So we need to know that they are making lots of money and that they are profitable. It's not they're not sitting around u not making money.
所以在这种情况下，当我们看 Meta，令人印象深刻的毛利率，互动媒体服务行业的重要参与者，当然大家都知道 Meta 做什么，他们有 Meta 眼镜，他们有 Facebook，他们有 Instagram，他们绝对是现金流强者，可以大幅覆盖利息支出。
Meta 正在做的一件事是他们在 AI 上投入大量资金，但他们有很多钱，他们赚很多钱，所以谁在乎呢，我觉得我们就是这样看这个的。估值确实让我有点担心。所以这取决于我想怎么操作。
另外，如果我看这张一年期图表，我喜欢 seeking Alpha，因为它就显示这里是一年回报，5.84%。这是一个相对低波动的交易。如果我看这样的东西，我会看两件我喜欢 Meta 的地方，我会知道市值巨大。
当然，他们有潜在上行空间。这些股票的备兑看涨期权 ETF 是什么样子？因为大多数人不能卖出 Meta 的备兑看涨期权。比如他们买入价值68,000美元的股票。所以要让这只股票占你投资组合不到3%，你必须有200万美元的投资组合。
我知道外面有很多人会说，“哇，我没有200万美元的期权交易组合。”你知道，我会有5万美元的期权交易组合。好吧，那就是这些备兑看涨期权 ETF 派上用场的时候。所以对于这样的股票，这些是值得考虑的，因为即使在一只下跌5.86%的年份里，表现也可以很棒。
So in in this case when we look at Meta u impress impressive gross profit margins a prominent player in the interactive media services industry of course everybody knows what Meta does you know they got their Meta glasses they've got Facebook they've got Instagram they're absolute powerhouse cash flows can significantly cover interest payments one of the things that Meta is doing is they're putting a lot of money into AI but they have a lot of money they make a lot of money so who cares you know that I think that's how we we look at this valuation does concern me a little bit.
So, it depends on how I want to play it. Also, if I look at this one-term one-year chart, so I like seeking Alpha because it just shows here's a one-year return, 5.84%. This is a relatively low uh low moving trade.
If I was looking at something like this, and I would look at two things that I I would like about Meta is I would know that the market cap is huge. Of course, they have potential upside.
What do the covered call ETFs look like on these? because I can't most people can't sell a a meta covered call. Like they're buying $68,000 worth of stock. So in order to have this less than 3% of your portfolio, you have to have a $2 million portfolio.
And I know there's a lot of people out there that are like, "Wow, I don't have a $2 million options trading portfolio." You know, I'd have a $50,000 option trading portfolio. Well, that's when those covered call ETFs come into play.
So those are something to consider with stocks like this because the performance can be great even on a year where it's down 5.86%.
好，这段说得有点长。那么 Meta，我们来看看。我在看图表。543 是这里的低点。我们还有 539、557 的低点。天哪，这些算是极低的低点了，对吧？那么，如果出现大幅下跌会怎样？
公允价值已经很高了。我不认为我们会跌到那么低，但还是来看一看。我们能做什么？我切到 Mumu。用 Mumu 的原因是它的图表功能很好。我打开 Meta。看这里的 Meta。689。
我在上面标了一些区间。这是之前一笔交易留下的，我们可以把这些挪一挪。这是个不错的小办法。这就是我喜欢做的。这些就像我的球门柱，也就是我可能在哪里赚钱。所以在下行方向，那个 590，我们看过 590 这个位置。
它接近成交密集区（point of control）的下沿。所以我们知道，如果跌到 590 这个位置，买方可能会进场。所以我想做的是，看看随着这次财报发布，有没有机会做一笔能赚到钱的交易，比如在 590 附近？
赚不了多少。但如果是价差呢？如果我看这个卖出看跌期权，如果我在模拟器里看，最大亏损是 $58,000，最大盈利是 $117。95% 的赚钱概率。这是一笔非常糟糕的交易，因为即使我赚钱，我也只赚 $117，却有 $58,000 被占用。
我看到很多人这样交易。我不认为这是个好的交易方式。我认为如果要做交易，就选一个风险更小的仓位。那么，我们如何界定这个风险？首先，我们给它设一个上限。我用一个例子，试着为一个 $100,000 的投资组合设置一下。
听起来可以吗？100,000。如果我想在一个 $100,000 的投资组合里做一笔交易，我可能愿意在单笔交易上冒账户 2% 的风险，甚至更少。现在，在这个情况下，如果我卖出 590 并买入 570，我会收到大约 $60。
我买入的总成本大约 $2,000。那么现在看模拟器，这笔交易的最大亏损大约是 $1,938，也就是 1.9%。最大盈利是 $62，不算多，但几天内就是 6%。单就这一点来说，这就是更强的交易方式。
现在，我们还可以看预期波动，我认为这会给我们一个更好的例子，说明我们可能想在哪里交易。我们打开期权链，看看跨式期权的价格。我要往右找到平值，也就是 $6.990 这个位置。我们看这一边看涨期权是 $25。
所以是 $25，然后另一边看跌期权是 $24。看起来差不多，定价大致相等。这意味着市场定价了大约 $50 的波动。我们把它乘以 0.8。不用计算器，我心算。好。那么 $50 乘以 0.8 是 $40。
这就是预期波动。从现在到 10 月 23 日（含财报），预期波动是 $40。这意味着我们要么在——我们一起算一下。690 加 40 是 730，或者 690 减 40 是 650。
我算对了吗？如果我算错了，在评论区告诉我。我很确定是对的。所以我们得到一个 650 到 730 的区间。回到那张图，把这些线标上去。730 大概在这里。然后那个 650 大概在这里。
这里有一个尚未回补的缺口。人们总在谈论这类东西。他们说，“哦，有个缺口，会被回补的。这个缺口回补了。有个缺口。有个缺口。这个缺口，这个缺口马上就回补了。有个小缺口，回补了。这里有个小缺口还没回补。
这个缺口还没回补。然后我们往上走。”有意思的观察点。我们那里有两个缺口。那么期权。我们来做更激进的。看这个 630。我们卖出 630 看跌期权。现在，我可以用几种方式做。我在模拟器里演示，这样稍微容易些，因为我只需要把它拖过来。
我可以直接把这个拖过来。好。现在，我冒 $5,500 的风险赚 $450。这几乎是 10% 的回报，但我可能没有那么大的账户。那么这里是 $350，冒 $2,800 的风险。我说过我在为一个 $100,000 的账户调整仓位。
我需要把最大亏损降到 $2,000 以下。最大盈利 $279。84% 的盈利概率。这是一笔强得多的交易。这是那种我愿意做的交易。我们在预期波动之外 $20。从风险回报比来看，我可以赚 284 美元。
即使我在很下面的位置交易，只能赚大概——刚才是多少来着，117 美元？不，60 美元。这笔交易如果做对了，利润相当可观。280 除以 60。要赚到 $280，我得赢多少笔交易？
这是一种看法。另一种做法是，能不能把它变成蝶式？有没有可能？值不值得？因为我现在收到 280 美元。如果我把其中一部分利润还回去，在这里搭一个帐篷（tent）呢？我们试试。我能不能在这里加一些看跌期权？
我买入 650 看跌期权，然后卖出一个 655 看跌期权。把这两个反过来。我买这个六。好了。那么现在我的到期盈亏是 $200。我这里的盈利是 $459。考虑到我之前比较的 $200 或 $60，这相当可观。
这些就是我喜欢做的交易。我也许还能把它稍微挪一点。这就是我可以微调的地方。我想收到足够多。164。开仓权利金是 129。这仍然是那个 590 交易亏损的两倍。看这个最大亏损。现在是 1371。
那么现在我能做什么？因为它是 1371。现在我可以挪动别的东西。我可以挪动这些看跌期权，通过更激进或更保守来增加盈利帐篷。这又是我喜欢在 Mumu 里设置的地方。我们之前谈过。
我在哪里交易，在哪里设置？这笔收到 $148。这笔交易的盈利帐篷最高到 $400。盈亏平衡点是 621。记住，预期波动是 650。所以预期波动就在这里。如果我们看到下跌走势，我们
Okay, that is long-winded. So Meta, we're looking at this. I'm looking at the chart. You know, 543 being the low over here. We've got a low 539, 557. Boy, those are like the low lows, right?
So, what happens if we have a big drop? Fair market value is already high. I don't expect that we're going to drop that low, but let's take a look at it anyways. What can we do?
So, I'm going to go over to to Mumu. And the reason we're using Mumu is because they've great charting. So, I'm going to go to Meta. Look at Meta here. So, 689. got some ranges marked on here.
Uh this was from a a previous trade and we can, you know, we can move those around. It's nice little way. This is what I like to do. These are like my goalposts, you know, like where am I going to where am I going to potentially make money?
So on the downside, that that 590, we looked at that 590 level. That's near the the lower end of the of the point of control. So, we know that buyers are going to potentially stop step in if we get down to that 590 level.
So, what I want to do is I want to see with these earnings coming out, is there a chance that we can get into a trade where we can make any money down at like 59012? Not very much.
But what about a spread? If I look at this short put, if I was to look at the simulator here, I've got max loss of $58,000 for a max profit of $117. 95% chance of uh making money.
This is a terrible, terrible play because in the event that I make money, I make $117, but I have $58,000 tied up. I see a lot of people trade like this. I don't think this is a good good way to trade.
I think if we are going to trade, let's take a a position that has uh less risk on it. So, how do we define that risk? Well, the first thing we do is we put a a cap on it. So, I'm going to use an example that we'll we'll try to set something up for a $100,000 portfolio.
Does that sound good? 100,000. Um, if I wanted to take a trade in a $100,000 portfolio, I might want to risk 2%. Or even less of my account on a single trade. Now, in this case, if I was to sell the 590 and if I was to buy the 570, I would be collecting around $60.
My total cost to buy out would be around $2,000. So, if we look at the simulator now, my max loss on this is going to be about $1,938, which is 1.9%. And the max profit is $62, which is not very much uh but it's it's 6% in a couple days.
This by itself would be a stronger way to play it. Now, we can also look at expected move, and I think that is going to give us a a better example of where we might want to play.
So, let's go to the chain here, and let's look at the the straddle price. So, I want to go to the right to at the money, which is going to be that $6.990 level. And we're going to look at $25 for the for the call on this side.
So, it's $25 and then $24 for the put on the on the opposite side. So, we're looking it's about equal. There's about equal pricing. That means we're pricing in about a $50 move.
We're going to times that by 08. Not going to use my calculator. I'm going to use my head in this one. Okay. Okay, so $50 time8 going to be $40. So that's the expected move. The expected move is $40 between now and October 23rd inclusive of the earnings.
So that would mean that we're either going to be trading at but let's do this math together. 690 + 40 is going to be 730 or 690 minus 40 is going to be 650. Did I do that math right?
Let me know if I screwed it up then let me know in the comments. Pretty sure that's right. So, we got a range between 650 7:30. Let's go back to that chart and let's mark those lines on there.
So, we got 730 is going to be right around here. And then that uh 650 is going to be right around here. There is a gap there that has not been filled. You know, there's people talk about this kind of stuff all the time.
They're like, "Oh, there's a gap. It's going to get filled. This gap got filled. There's a gap. There's a gap. This gap, this gap got filled right away. There's a little gap. It got filled.
There's a little gap here which has not been filled. This this gap has not been filled. And then we and then we move up. Interesting thing things to look at. We have two gaps there.
So options. So let's go way more aggressive here. Let's get to this three 630. We're gonna sell the 630 put. Now, I can do this in a couple ways. I'm going to show you in the simulator.
It's a little bit easier because all I have to do is just drag it over. I can just drag this over. Okay. Now, I'm risking $5,500 to make $450. That's almost a 10% return, but I may not have that big of account.
So, here is $350, risking 2,800. Now, I said I was trying to size for a um a $100,000 account. I need to get this max loss to below $2,000. Max profit $279. 84% chance of profit.
This is a much stronger trade. This is the type of trade I'm I would be willing to take. We're $20 outside of the expected move. And from a risk return ratio, um I can make 284 bucks.
Even if I was playing way down here and I could only make likeund what was 117 bucks? No, 60 bucks. This is like if if I'm right on this trade, this trade uh the profits on it are considerable. 280 divided by 60.
How many trades would I have to win to in order to make $280? So, that's one way to look at it. The other thing to do is to say, can we turn this into a butterfly? Is there a chance?
Is it worth it? Because I'm now collecting 280 bucks. What if I was to give back some of that profit and build a tent here? So, let's try to do that. Can I can I just uh add some puts in here?
I'm going to buy a 650 put and then I'm going to uh sell a 655 put. Uh let's reverse those. I'm going to buy the six. There we go. So now I have a expiration P&L of $200. I have a profit 10 down here of $459.
This is considerable considering the the the $200 or the $60 that I was comparing to originally. These are the type of trades I like. I may be able to just squeeze this over just a little bit, too.
And this is where I get to just kind of micromanage. I want to collect enough. 164. This is 129 credit to open. That's still double what that that 590 uh trans um loss is. Look at this max loss.
It's now 1371. So, what can I do now? Because it's 1371. Well, now I get to slide over something else. I get to to maybe slide over the the um and increase the profit tent by being more aggressive with these these puts or less aggressive.
And this is again where I like to set up in Mumu. We talked about that before. Where where do I trade and where do I set up? This collects $148. This trade has a profit tent up to $400.
Break even is 621. Remember, expected move is 650. So, expected move is right here. If we see a down move, we're we're
刚好在那个缺口边缘之外。没有上行风险。所以 Meta 可能一路上涨。如果我想，我可以很容易地加上上行风险。
Just over the edge of that gap. no upside risk. So, Meta could go up and up and up. I could add upside risk easily if I wanted to.
和 Meta 这样的股票相比。我们看 Meta。人们想买它，他们说，“对，我要买 Meta 赚点钱。”从量化的角度看，Meta 已经处于公允价值。
You know, compared to like Meta. We look at Meta. People are trying to buy that and they're like, "Yeah, I'm going to buy Meta and make some money." From a quantitative st standpoint. Um, Meta is at fair value already.