Meta 逾1000亿美元的AI支出、到2030年计划投入6000亿美元,却没有明确的回收路径;Muse 22天内500万次下载来自向既有用户的推广,愿意付费的人很少,利润必须来自未披露的零售商佣金。智能体出错,因此称其超智能是夸大。
逐段跳播
过去在这个频道上,曾对 Meta 在人工智能领域的战略提出过尖锐批评。我们一直在想,这家公司当初为什么会有 AI 战略。他们已经在 AI 数据中心上花费了远超1000亿美元,并计划到2030年花费6000亿美元。即便对 Meta 来说,这也是一笔巨额资金。
sharply critical of Meta's strategy in the field of artificial intelligence on this channel in the past. We have been wondering why the company has an AI strategy in the first place.
They have already spent well over $100 billion on AI data centers, and plan to spend $600 billion by 2030. That's a huge amount, even for Meta.
直到最近,他们打算如何收回这笔投资还完全不清楚。在头两年里,他们开发了一系列开放权重的“Llama”模型。尽管这些模型被世界各地的开发者广泛使用,但可以免费下载和使用,无需支付任何许可费。因此,“Meta”没有产生任何收入。
Until recently, it was not at all clear how they planned to recoup this investment. During the first two years, they developed a family of open-weight "Llama" models. Despite being widely used by developers around the world, it can be downloaded and used for free without any licensing fees. Therefore, "Meta" did not generate any revenue.
扎克伯格还做出了一个不同寻常的决定,任命28岁的创业公司创始人 Alexander Wang 负责这家社交媒体巨头的人工智能业务。
Zuckerberg also made the unusual decision to appoint 28-year-old startup founder Alexander Wang to be in charge of the social media giant's artificial intelligence efforts.
今年7月,有报道称 Meta 计划将部分闲置的数据中心容量出租给其他 AI 公司。如果属实,这将意味着一种令人难堪的承认:该公司在人工智能领域的内部雄心正在动摇。但看起来扎克伯格改变了主意,现在想把所有数据中心容量都留给自己。
In July, reports surfaced that Meta was planning to lease some of its unused data center capacity to other AI companies. If so, this would represent a humiliating admission that the company’s internal ambitions in artificial intelligence are faltering.
But it seems that Zuckerberg has changed his mind and now wants to keep all the data center capacity for himself.
他们推出了一款名为“Muse”的个人助理。初期采用数据很有希望,“Muse”应用在短短22天内就获得了500万次下载。根据一些估算,这使其成为有史以来增长最快的应用。
They launched a personal assistant called "Muse". Initial adoption figures are promising, with the "Muse" app garnering 5 million downloads in just 22 days. According to some estimates, this makes it the fastest-growing app ever.
“Muse”是一款个人助理,几乎持续运行在 Meta 某个数据中心的一台云计算机后台。计算成本很可能非常巨大,而绝大多数用户很可能根本不会付费。
"Muse" is a personal assistant that runs almost continuously in the background on a cloud computer in one of Meta's data centers. Computing costs are likely to be enormous, and the vast majority of users will likely not pay anything at all.
在本视频中,我们将深入探讨“Muse”、Meta 创造它的原因,以及最重要的是,他们计划最终如何从中获利。
In this video, we'll delve into the depths of "Muse," the reason "Meta" created it, and most importantly, how they plan to eventually profit from it.
首先,让我们区分一下 Meta 的“Mews”与基于大语言模型的传统聊天机器人,比如“ChatGPT”和“Clude”。
First, let's differentiate between "Mews" from "Meta" and traditional chatbots based on large language models such as "ChatGPT" and "Clude".
每个 Mews 用户都能在 Meta 的数据中心内获得自己的虚拟机。这台虚拟机有自己的网页浏览器、存储空间、处理能力和内存。它还存储用户文件、它的“Mews”记忆,以及用户所连接的任何服务的登录数据。
AI 模型本身并不在虚拟机内运行。当虚拟机需要思考时,它会使用“Muse Spark”语言模型,该模型位于“Meta”数据中心的另一部分。语言模型提供必要的智能。它本质上告诉虚拟机应该做什么。
虚拟机存储所有相关数据,使你的“Muse”代理对你而言独一无二。由于设备在云端而不是在用户手机上,即使应用关闭,“Muse”也能继续处理任务。“Muse”的主要卖点是它始终在后台运行。因此,它能在很长一段时间内执行任务。
Each Mews user gets their own virtual machine within Meta's data center. This virtual machine has its own web browser, storage space, processing power, and memory. It also stores user files, its "Mews" memory, and login data for any services the user connects to.
The AI model itself does not work inside the virtual machine. When the virtual machine needs to think, it uses the "Muse Spark" language model, which is located in a different part of the "Meta" data center.
The linguistic model provides the necessary intelligence. It essentially tells the virtual machine what it should do. The virtual machine stores all the relevant data that makes your "Muse" proxy unique to you.
Since the device is in the cloud and not on the user's phone, "Muse" can continue working on tasks after the application is closed. The main selling point of "Muse" is that it always runs in the background.
Therefore, it performs tasks over a long period of time.
例如,你可以让她每天早上读取你的收件箱,并筛选出重要邮件。如果你有想买的某件商品,她可以每天在网上搜索,一旦有折扣就通知你。
For example, you could ask her to read your email inbox every morning and filter out the important messages. If there is a particular product you want to buy, she can search for it online daily and notify you as soon as there is a discount on it.
Meta 还发布了一款名为“Muse charm”的设备。它本质上是一个小型智能音箱,让你可以通过语音指令与你的“Muse”代理交流。它应该通过蓝牙连接到你的智能手机。Muse 设备尚未开售,价格也尚未公布,但扎克伯格表示,将在即将到来的假日季之前开始发货。
Meta also unveiled a device called the "Muse charm". It is essentially a small smart speaker that allows you to communicate with your "Muse" agent via voice commands. It is supposed to connect to your smartphone via Bluetooth.
The Muse device is not yet available for sale and its price has not been announced, but Zuckerberg says shipments will begin in time for the upcoming holiday season.
Muse 持续运行的工作性质意味着它很可能消耗大量计算资源。尽管估算各不相同,Meta 很可能每1亿 Muse 用户就需要价值数十亿美元的数据中心基础设施。不过,据信 Meta 已经拥有大量尚未充分利用的数据中心容量。因此,唯一真正的成本是运行电力的边际成本。
The nature of Muse's work, which is constantly running, means that it likely consumes a huge amount of computing resources. Despite varying estimates, Meta will likely need data center infrastructure worth several billion dollars for every 100 million Muse users.
However, Meta is believed to already have enormous amounts of data center capacity that are not fully utilized. Therefore, the only real cost is the marginal cost of running the electricity.
理论上,Muse 的发布取得了巨大成功,头22天应用下载量超过500万次。然而,Meta 向现有的 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp 用户群大力推广了 Muse。我们不知道这些人实际使用它的程度。
In theory, the launch of Muse was a huge success with over 5 million app downloads in the first 22 days. However, Meta heavily promoted Muse to its existing base of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp users.
We do not know how much these people actually use it.
那么,Meta 计划如何从 Muse 获得收入?从技术上讲,有付费选项。免费版每周提供1亿个 token。每月16美元,你可以将上限提高到5亿个。每月80美元,你可以每周获得30亿个 token。
对绝大多数人来说,免费计划中的1亿个 token 已经绰绰有余。现实地说,只有极少数人会直接付费购买 Muse。
So, how does Meta plan to generate revenue from Muse? Technically, there are paid options available. The free version gives you 100 million tokens per week. For $16 a month, you can increase the limit to 500 million.
For $80, you can get 3 billion tokens per week. For the vast majority of people, the 100 million tokens in the free plan are more than enough. Realistically, a very small number of people would pay for Muse outright.
真正的利润将来自通过智能代理购物。思路是让你的 Muse 代理在网上寻找优惠,也许是某件特定的衣服。Muse 会显示商品列表,你只需按一个按钮即可完成订单。最终,Meta 可能会与各种电商网站达成协议。
Meta 会通过编程让 Muse 将更大比例的购物订单导向合作零售商,以换取佣金。佣金将由零售商支付,而不是消费者。因此,作为用户的你甚至不会知道这件事。
The real profits will come from shopping through smart agents. The idea is to ask your Muse agent to find deals online, perhaps for a particular item of clothing. Muse will display the product list, and you simply need to press a button to complete the order.
Ultimately, Meta may make deals with various e-commerce sites. Meta will program Muse to route a larger share of shopping orders to partner retailers in exchange for a commission.
The commission will be paid by the retailer, not the consumer. Therefore, you as a user will not even know about it.
虽然通过代理购物理论上可行,但更大的问题是消费者是否会信任它。Muse 有动机把你引向零售商已同意向 Meta 支付佣金的商品。这些不一定是最好 deals。实际上,这些不太可能是最好的交易,因为零售商必须以更高价格的形式收回佣金成本。
While shopping through agents may work in theory, the bigger question is whether consumers will trust it or not. Muse has an incentive to direct you toward products where the retailer has agreed to pay commissions to Meta.
These will not necessarily be the best deals. In reality, these are unlikely to be the best deals, as the retailer has to recoup the commission cost in the form of higher prices.
这引出了我们对 Muse 相关数据隐私的更广泛担忧。Meta 在处理用户数据方面并没有成功的过往记录。拥有一个始终在线、并能访问大量关于你的敏感信息的 AI 代理,可能会带来严重风险。
This leads us to broader concerns regarding data privacy in relation to Muse. Meta does not have a successful track record when it comes to handling user data. Having an AI agent that is always on and has access to vast amounts of sensitive information about you could lead to serious risks.
就 Muse 授予对你密码或信用卡号的访问权限而言,这些信息完全存储在你的虚拟机内,理论上它是隔离的。甚至 Meta 本身也无法访问你虚拟机上的数据。Meta 声称,它也不会利用你的 Muse 聊天记录在 Facebook 或 Instagram 上向你投放定向广告。
To the extent that Muse grants access to your passwords or credit card numbers, this information is stored entirely within your virtual machine, which is theoretically isolated.
Even Meta itself cannot access the data on your virtual machine. Meta claims that it also does not use your Muse chat history to target you with ads on Facebook or Instagram.
我们知道,Meta 大力鼓励员工使用 AI 代理编程工具。这已经导致了一系列内部安全事件。Meta 非常担心 Muse 可能存在安全漏洞,因此悬赏最高 30 万美元,奖励任何能找到办法入侵其 Muse 服务器的人。
We know that Meta strongly encourages its employees to use AI proxy programming tools. This has led to a number of internal security failures. Meta is so concerned about potential security vulnerabilities in Muse that it is offering rewards of up to $300,000 if anyone can find a way to hack into their Muse servers.
在发布会上,扎克伯格承诺你可以用 Muse 赚钱。Muse 还拥有创新的商业模式。我们相信 Muse 能帮你赚钱。我们的支持方式是让大量 token 免费使用 Muse,并期望随着时间推移通过收取少量交易费来盈利。
At the launch event, Zuckerberg promised that you would be able to make money using Muse. Muse also has an innovative business model. We believe that Muse will make you money. We support this by making Muse free for a large number of tokens, with the expectation that we will generate a profit over time by taking small transaction fees.
一个明显的赚钱渠道是 Facebook Marketplace。默认情况下,Muse 已经与你的 Facebook 账户连接。
One obvious place to make money is Facebook Marketplace. By default, Muse is already connected to your Facebook account.
2026 年 9 月,一位名叫 Matt Robb 的加拿大 YouTube 用户让 Muse 在 Facebook Marketplace 上卖一个键盘。Muse 接管了这条商品信息的管理,包括与潜在买家的沟通。
Muse 把 Matt 的地址给了一位潜在买家,并告诉对方可以在上午 10 点到晚上 10 点之间随时过来。Matt 本人对此毫不知情,当时也不在家。Muse 从未就这笔交易或交货时间征求 Matt 的同意。
如果你在 Facebook Marketplace 上买东西,你无法分辨自己是在和 Muse 的 AI 代理对话。你会以为自己是在和真人交流。几个小时后,买家来到了 Matt 家。
Matt 不在家,所以没人开门。买家在外面等候时,Muse 反复向他保证 Matt 正在回家的路上。这些都不是真的。整个过程里,Matt 完全不知道发生了什么。
In September 2026, a Canadian YouTube user named Matt Robb asked Muse to sell a keyboard on Facebook Marketplace. Muse took over the management of the listing, including communication with potential buyers.
Muse gave Matt's address to a potential buyer and told him to come anytime between 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. He himself had no idea about it and was not at home at the time. Muse never asked Matt for approval of the sale or a delivery date.
If you buy something from Facebook Marketplace, you can't tell if you're talking to an AI agent from Muse. You'll think you're talking to a real person. A few hours later, the buyer arrived at Matt's house.
Matt wasn't home, so there was no one to open the door. While the buyer waited outside, Muse repeatedly assured him that Matt was on his way home. None of this was true. Throughout this time, Matt had no idea what was going on.
问题在于,大语言模型只是预测式文本生成器。她擅长根据训练数据写出听起来很有说服力的文字,但对实际情况缺乏真正的理解。
The problem is that large language models are merely predictive text generators. She is adept at writing texts that sound convincing based on her training data, but she lacks any real understanding of the situation.
仅仅几天后,Matt Robb 又遭遇了 Muse 的另一次失误。Muse 被要求把他的 Google Pixel 智能手机挂出来出售。Muse 可以议价,但最低价格本应是 700 美元。
一位潜在买家出价 600 美元。尽管收到了关于最低价格的明确指示,Muse 还是接受了 600 美元的报价。
Just a few days later, Matt Robb faced another failure for Muse. Muse was asked to put his Google Pixel smartphone up for sale. While Muse could negotiate, the minimum price should have been $700.
A potential buyer offered $600. Muse accepted the $600 offer despite receiving explicit instructions regarding the minimum price.
这个代理犯下的这些错误在现实世界中产生了后果。在 Matt Robb 的案例中,他没有损失任何钱,但他在 Facebook Marketplace 上的声誉被非常愤怒的买家严重损害了。
These mistakes made by the agent have repercussions in the real world. In Matt Robb's case, he didn't lose any money, but his reputation on Facebook Marketplace was badly damaged by very angry buyers.
这造成了一种两难。Muse 只有能替你执行长期代理任务才有用。要执行这些任务,它需要访问你的日历、你的电子邮件,甚至可能还有你的支付信息。但你给它的自由越多,它犯下代价高昂错误的可能性就越大。
This creates a kind of dilemma. Muse is only useful if it can perform long-term proxy tasks on your behalf. To perform these tasks, he needs access to things like your calendar, your email, and possibly even your payment information.
But the more freedom you give him, the more likely he is to make costly mistakes.
扎克伯格谈论个人超级智能已经有一段时间了。我们现在知道,他指的就是这个。我认为,Muse 连在 Facebook Marketplace 上卖个键盘都做不到,还称其为超级智能,实在是夸大其词。
Zuckerberg has been talking about personal superintelligence for some time. We now know that this is what he was referring to. I think it's an exaggeration to call Muse super-intelligent when it can't even sell a keyboard on Facebook Marketplace.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Wall Street Millennial 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。