META 从 520 美元大幅上涨后显得估值偏高，尽管在 681 支撑位反弹，下行可能性更大。735-738 的下降趋势线和 740 的高点已多次压制价格，上周也不例外；他预计该区间将压制 META，并正为财报前后的下跌布局。
逐段跳播
我们不会覆盖特斯拉。我们会看看 Meta 的走势结构。
We will not cover Tesla. We will take a look at the setup in Meta.
那么，现在我们来深入看看图表。到了。大家看 Meta。我正在看 Meta。目前，这里的 680 水平，681，是一个重要支撑位。这是价格上涨时的阻力位。如你所见，我们多次触及这个水平，然后最终突破向上。
现在，Meta 开始遭到抛售，如我们所见，价格跌到 681，然后明显反弹。长下影线显示出显著的购买力。现在，价格再次向上推进。所以，今天盘中，Meta 股票已经上涨了 2.5%，而且我们仍在继续上涨。此外，我们还有盘后发布的财报。
So, now we will delve into the graphs. Here we are. Look at Meta. you guys. I am looking at Meta. Currently , the 680 level here, 681, is a major support level. This was a resistance level when the price was rising.
As you can see, we touched this level several times and then finally broke through to the top. Now, Meta has started selling and as we can see, we've dropped to 681 and the price has clearly bounced back.
A long wick demonstrates significant purchasing power. Now, with this, the price is pushing up again. So, during the day, we have already risen by two and a half percent in Meta stock and we are still continuing to rise.
Furthermore , we have an earnings announcement after the market closes.
目前，主流情绪是 Meta 在上涨，并且已经从支撑位明显反弹。所以，大家都认为 SpaceX 是看涨的，因此大家都应该对 Meta 持乐观态度，对吧？
Currently, the prevailing sentiment is that Meta is rising and has made a clear bounce off the support level . So, everyone thinks that SpaceX was bullish, and therefore everyone should be optimistic about Meta, right?
也许吧，但你猜怎么着？今天我要从相反的角度来看。我要逆势而为。我想在这只股票上建立看跌期权头寸。也许……我其实对财报本身不太感兴趣，也不关心营收或每股收益。我只关注价格走势，好吗？
我仍然认为这只股票自夏天以来一直被高估。看看这个。从 520 美元的低位一路涨上来。我现在不确定具体百分比，但看看这波急剧上涨，然后这里的小幅回调。我仍然相信这让下跌走势更有可能发生。
Maybe , but guess what? I'm going to look at it from the opposite angle today. I will go against the grain . I want to set up a put option position on this stock. Perhaps... I'm not really interested in the report itself, nor in the revenue or earnings per share.
I'm only focusing on price movement, okay ? I still think the stock has been overvalued since the summer . Look at this. All the way from the low levels of $520. I'm not sure of the exact percentage at this moment, but look at this sharp upward move and then the slight pullback here.
I still believe this makes a downward move more likely .
那么，话虽如此，让我列出一些阻力位。目前，Meta 的交易价格是 711 美元。因此，我在这个关键峰值处有一个重要阻力。这个阻力位于 740。这就是顶部这条蓝线。如我们所见，价格冲向这个水平，然后被反转。
这里也一样，被回应了。我们有几个极端情况，价格超过了这个水平，但这就是这条趋势线发挥作用的地方。现在，我想让你看看这条白色趋势线。它从 2025 年 8 月 15 日的峰值开始。
它向下倾斜，价格在 11 月在这里被拒绝。然后它现在打断了价格走势。是的，价格穿过了这条线，但如我们所见，它回落，回来试图上涨，并继续回到这个水平。当价格从那个水平被拒绝时，所有这些朝那个水平延伸的影线也出现了。
所以，我们现在有了对这条趋势线的最后一次测试，你可以在这里看到。为什么它不显示给我？这发生在上周，这条趋势线两次阻止了价格。现在它又在尝试向上攀升。因此，这个水平现在大约达到 735 到 738。
So, with that said, let me outline some resistance levels. Currently, Meta is trading at $711. Therefore, I have significant resistance at a pivotal peak here. This resistance is located at 740.
This is the blue line here at the top. As we can see , the price surges towards this level, then is reversed. Here too, it was answered. We have a few extreme cases where the price exceeds this level, but this is where this trend line comes in.
Now, I want you to take a look at this white trend line . This starts from the peak of August 15, 2025. It is descending, and the price is rejecting here in November. Then it now interrupts the price movement.
Yes, the price crosses this line , but as we can see, it retreats, returns to try to rise, and continues to return to this level. And when the price is rejected from that level, all these wicks extending towards that level also appear.
So, we now have this final test of this trend line, which you can see here. Why isn't it showing up for me? This happened last week, where this trend line stopped the price twice.
And now he is making another attempt to climb up. So, with this, the level now reaches approximately 735 to 738.
好吗？我在这里考虑的是在财报前买入看跌期权，我押注的是这个支撑区、关键的 740 峰值，以及上周拒绝价格的下降趋势线。我认为这里的组合有可能阻止价格。所以，我打算在 730-740 区间买入看跌期权。
Okay? What I'm thinking about here is buying a put option before earnings, and I'm betting on this support zone, the pivotal 740 peak, and the downtrend line that rejected the price last week.
I think this combination here has the potential to stop the price. So, I'm looking to buy a put option here in the 730-740 range.
正如我所说，这不是我们通常做的典型交易结构，但这是我们今天想要交易的。一定要明确你在 Meta 上的价位。
As I said, this isn't a typical setup we usually do, but it's one we're looking to trade today. Make sure you specify your levels with Meta.
执行价格，比如说 Meta，会在 711 吗？
Will the execution price, let's say meta, be at 711?
好了，各位。我现在在看期权链。我们面前有一个“Meta”，我看的是卖出合约这一边，不是买入合约那一边。我不着急，我也没有错失恐惧症（FOMO）。我在这里要逆预期而行。现在，我们只看一个到期周期，是的，我会依赖更快的时间框架。
我在这里看的是 30 天的期权链。我们通常寻找 30 到 45 天让我们的论点变得清晰，但价格今晚稳定下来了。所以，有时候你必须承担风险。是的。我们需要先扩大列表。我们在寻找高于 735 到 740 的执行价格。
嗯。让我看看能不能添加更多执行价格。有很多。好了，到了。好。下面这里，不。我在看 735 到 740 区间。有一些不错的期权。是的。现在，我知道这份合约的价格大约在 5000。
所以，买价是 5170，卖价是 5225。哎哟。如果我们买入这个，将是一笔价值约 5100 美元的交易。哦。考虑到 740 和 735，740 的期权很贵。我知道，我的意思是我们已经支付了高价，嗯。
作为这一天的交换。因此，我会选择执行价格 735 的更便宜的期权。现在，这样我们有一个 0.5 的“delta”。漂亮。大约 666。Tabi 觉得漂亮。为什么这个 delta 是负的，Tabi？
因为它是卖出合约。我们希望它下跌。是的。是的，我们希望它下跌，这就是 Delta 为负的原因。现在，Tabi，如果我们这里有一个买入合约呢？Delta 会是什么样？正的。会是 0.5。
好。所以，我在看这个卖出合约 735。嗯。今天有一些交易量进来。我们在 725 的价格这里有很多交易量。是的。是的，也有未平仓合约。但我们会坚持我们的论点。好。现在，正如我所说，情况是我们逆势而为，今天买入和卖出合约的交易量比是 0.49。
嗯。Tabi，这个交易量是旧消息还是新消息？交易量是新消息。这是正确的。这是新资金进入市场。所以，这是一个上升的读数。我们知道财报将在今晚公布。因此，那个溢价会很高。好。因为不确定性。
是的。所以，我们会为这笔交易支付更高的价格。我们处于隐含波动率的第 90 百分位，但这正是盈利交易中有趣的地方。所以，这就是今天的交易。我在看执行价格 735 的卖出合约，30 天后到期。
Okay, guys. I'm looking at the series now . We have a "meta" in front of us and I am looking at the side of sales contracts, not the side of purchase contracts. I don't rush things, and I don't suffer from FOMO (fear of missing out ).
I will defy expectations here. Now, we'll just look at one decade, and yes, I would rely on a faster timeframe. I'm looking at the 30-day series here. We usually look for 30 to 45 days for our thesis to become clear, but the price stabilized tonight.
So, sometimes you have to take risks. Yes. We need to expand our list first. We are looking for execution prices higher than 735 to 740. mmm. Let me see if I can add more execution prices.
There are many of them. Okay, here we are. Good. Here below, no. I'm looking at the 735 to 740 range. There are some good options. Yes. Now, I know that this contract is priced at around 5000.
So, the bid price is at 5170, and the ask price is at 5225. Oof. If we bought this, it would be a deal worth approximately $5100. Oh. Considering the 740 and 735, the 740 option is expensive.
I know, I mean we're already paying a high price, mmm. In exchange for this day. Therefore, I will choose a cheaper option at an execution price of 735. Now , with this, we have a "delta" of 0.5.
Beautiful. Approximately 666. Tabi thinks it's beautiful. And why is this delta negative, Tabi? Because it is a sales contract. We want it to go down. Yes. Yes, we want it to go down, and that's why Delta is negative.
Now, Tabi, what if we had a purchase agreement here? What will the delta look like? Positive. It will be 0.5. good. So, I'm looking at this sales contract 735. Hmm. There is some trading volume coming in today.
We have a lot of trading volume here at the price of 725 . Yes. Yes, there is open interest as well. But we will stick to our thesis . Okay . Now, the picture, as I said, is that we are going against the grain , with the trading volume of buy and sell contracts today at 0.49.
Hmm. Tabi, is this trading volume old news or new? Trading volume is news. This is correct. It's new money entering the market. So, it's an upward reading . We know that the earnings will be announced tonight.
Therefore, that bonus will be high. Okay . Because of the uncertainty. Yes. So, we will pay a higher price for this trade. We are at the 90th percentile of implied volatility, but that's what's fun in profit trading .
So, this is today's deal. I am looking at an execution price of 735 for a sell contract that expires in 30 days.
太棒了。太棒了。让我们看最后一张图来总结今天。这笔交易是在 Meta 上做卖出合约，执行价 735 美元，这意味着我们预期下跌。到期日是 2026 年 11 月 20 日。所以，相当近了。
越来越近了。我们的“delta”值是 0.571，在我们的范围内。哦，负的。是的，在这个问题上，正如我们已经解释过的。负的 0.571 必须在范围内。我们的方法是在今晚财报前逆当前趋势交易。
隐含波动率的百分比是 88，这意味着权利金很贵。我们支付了高价，但我们押注支撑位被拒绝、价格下跌。所以，如果那发生的话，会非常令人兴奋。它会发生的。当然。
amazing. amazing. Let's look at the final graph to summarize the day. The deal was on Meta for a sell contract at $735, which means we expect a drop. The expiry date is November 20, 2026.
So, it's fairly close . It's getting closer. Our "delta" value is 0.571, which is within our range. Oh, negative. Yes, in this matter, as we have explained. The negative 0.571 must be within the range.
Our approach is to trade against the current trend, ahead of tonight's profits. The percentage for implied volatility is 88, which means the premium is expensive. We are paying a high price, but we are betting on the support level being rejected and the price going down.
So , it would be really exciting if that happened. It will happen. certainly.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 18 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。