META第三季度表现喜忧参半：营收和广告营收超预期，但约100亿美元法律费用扭曲了业绩，导致营业利润不及预期；Reality Labs营收不及预期。第四季度指引中值高于市场共识，2026年资本开支符合预期，其非稀释性股份类别被视为在不增加债务的情况下为AI融资的明智方式。
逐段跳播
好，那我们来看看 Meta 以及目前看到的走势。这一走势是净正向的，涨幅不算大，但我们来拆解一下这些数字。每股收益为 3.83 美元。这次的预期区间非常宽，大约从 345 到 650，因为第三季度的那些法律费用很难权衡。但最终结果是超出预期。
All right, so let's take a look at at Meta here and the move that we're seeing right now. The move is net positive, not by a lot, but let's break these numbers down. EPS is coming in at $3.83.
The range was very wide here, anywhere from about 345 up to 650 in terms of what that EPS number might have been because it was hard to weigh those legal expenses here for the third quarter. But it is coming in as a beat here.
看整个第三季度，营收为 646 亿美元。这好于此前预期的 633 亿美元。广告收入为 630.6 亿美元，也好于此前预期的 618.5 亿美元。
Their revenue as we look over the entire quarter of the third quarter 64.6 billion. It's better than the 60 63.3 billion that was expected. Their ad revenue coming in at 63.06 billion also better than the 61.85 that was expected.
营业利润为 129 亿美元，而此前的预期是 208.5 亿美元。
Operating income 12.9 billion 20.85 was the expectation there.
Reality Labs，这一块的亏损会是多少，始终是个问号。我们来看看 Reality Labs 的情况。应用家族的营收为 641.6 亿美元。这好于 627.5 亿美元。
Reality Labs, this one always has a question mark around what its loss is going to be. as we look at the reality labs here. Uh the family of apps revenue 64.16. That is better than the 62.75.
再看应用家族，其营业利润为 171.2 亿美元，而预期是 233 亿美元。所以，综合来看，盈利是超出预期的。应用家族的营收也好于预期。
And there's that family of apps. Their operating income at 17.12 billion estimate was looking for 23 uh.3 there. So I mean as we look over this, you've got a beat on the earnings.
Their family apps revenue coming in better than expected.
Reality Labs 的营收则未达预期，为 4.43 亿美元，而他们此前预期的是 5.177 亿美元。
Reality Labs revenue did miss the mark coming in at 443 million that they were looking for 517.7.
营业利润低于预期，无论是第三季度整体还是应用家族，都未达预期。不过他们确实收窄了 Reality Labs 的亏损。亏损收窄至 41.3 亿美元。这好于此前预期的亏损 51.3 亿美元。
Operating income coming in below the estimates both overall for the third quarter and for the family of apps that missed as well. Uh they did narrow their loss though on the reality labs.
It narrowed to 4.13. That was better than the estimate looking uh for a loss of 5.13.
至于未来的指引，他们给出的第四季度营收指引为 730 亿至 760 亿美元，而预期是 735.7 亿美元。所以这好于区间中点。中点更高。
And as far as their guidance going forward, they're guiding for Q4 revenue between 73 and $76 billion versus the 73.57 billion estimate. So that's better than the midpoints here. The midpoint is higher.
他们还把 2026 年的资本支出指引定在 1350 亿至 1450 亿美元，这正好与预期完全一致。我们现在上涨了近 4%。主要驱动因素是什么？是因为资本支出没有上升？是因为营收和利润都超出预期？你觉得最积极的地方在哪里？
They're also setting their 2026 capital expenditure guidance at 135 to 145 billion, which is right exactly dead on the money where it was expected to be. We're up almost 4% right now.
What's the big driver behind it? Is it that we don't have an uptick in capex? Is it that we beat on the top and the bottom? Where are you seeing the most positivity here?
是的，他们今天实际上刚刚发布了一堆信息。所以，从资本支出的角度看，这要看你参考的是哪些预期。看起来这大致符合华尔街的预期。
Yeah, they actually just released a bunch of information today. So, I would say from a capex standpoint, kind of depending on the estimates that you're looking at here. It seems like that was kind of in line with the street's expectations.
看起来他们实际上还将宣布一次性股票股息，每持有一股流通在外的 A 类普通股和 B 类普通股，就派发一股 C 类普通股。
It does appear that they're actually also going to declare a one-time stock dividend for one share of class C common stock for each outstanding class share class A share common stock and class B common stock.
我们来看看这实际上意味着什么。再说一次，我们只是在读新闻标题，但这会不会类似 Google 那样的结构——A 类股有投票权，同时还有 C 类股？Meta 是不是也要走同样的路？
从新闻标题来看，听起来确实会是这样。也许这是为了能够筹集一点资金。
Let's see what that actually entails. Once again, we're just reading the headlines here, but is this going to look similar to a structure like Google where they have a voting rights for the class A and then they also have the C shares.
Is Meta going down that same path? From the headline standpoint, it does sound like that is going to be the case. Maybe that's an effort to be able to raise a little bit of capital here.
这份财报还有一点很有意思，看起来他们不会提供 2027 财年的营收展望。这通常是我们会在电话会议上得到的。他们的指引大部分通常是在电话会议上给出的。看起来他们不会发布这份营收指引。
What's also very interesting with this report, it does not appear that they are going to provide a fiscal year 2027 revenue outlook. That's something that we would receive on the conference call.
Usually the guidance that they have is on the conference call for the most part. It doesn't look like they're going to issue that revenue guidance.
看起来华尔街对此有些不以为意，股价继续走高，而且他们在人工智能方面继续加大投入。
It seems like the street is kind of shrugging that off and it continues to power higher here. uh and they continue to double down when it comes to artificial intelligence.
所以，我会说这算是一份好坏参半的财报。有一项一次性项目也在很大程度上扭曲了你刚才提到的很多数字，但如果你看日活跃用户以及类似指标，似乎并没有让市场感到太大意外。
So, I would say this is kind of a mixed report. You have a one-off item that is also distorting a lot of the uh the numbers that you kind of went over, but if you're looking at the daily active users and things of that nature, it seems like it wasn't a big shock to the street.
我认为，这其实就是因为我们看到了股票股息。看看这一切会如何发展吧。今天下午关于那项公告，我们会得到更多细节。是的，Sam，那个拖累其中一些数字的一次性问题，是他们的法律费用约为100亿美元，与他们的和解有关，涉及那些，我想，最后到底是多少来着？我相信和解公布时涉及的是52位总检察长。
I think it's just the fact that we are seeing the stock dividend here. Let's see how that all pans out. We'll get more details uh throughout the uh afternoon here when it comes to that announcement.
Yeah, and Sam, I mean, that that oneoff issue that's weighing on uh some of these numbers here is their legal expenses were about $10 billion uh related to their settlement with those I think uh what did it end up being?
52 attorneys generals I believe is how many were involved by the end when that settlement came out.
而且，取决于你用的是哪个来源、看的是谁的指标，它在其中一些指标上是超预期的，但由于那些高额费用，很难与去年同期做比较。
I mean, and depending on which which source you were using and whose metrics you were looking at, it is a beat across some of them, but it was hard to make uh a comparison against the year ago because of those heavy expenses.
当你通读这些内容，以及我们之前关于 Meta 的所有讨论，最让你突出注意到的是什么？
As you look through this and all the conversations that we had about Meta coming forward, what is sticking out to you the most
就那笔费用而言？我听到过一些讨论，说在进入这次财报前，有人预期由于最近的多州情绪和解，利润底线会有很多噪音。所以我认为，其中一些已经被定价了。
>> just on that charge? I mean I had heard some conversations that going into that there was some expectations that the bottom line was going to have a lot of noise around it because of the recent multi-state sentiment uh settlement.
So I think you know some of that had been priced in.
之前有一些讨论认为，这可能成为未来的一个压制因素。不只是这次和解，因为那现在似乎已经某种程度上过去了，还有其他一些在背景中发生的事情，但有些人一直说，这些已经在很大程度上被股价消化了。
Uh there had been some conversations around maybe this could be an overhang moving forward. Not just this settlement because that seems to be somewhat behind it now but the other things sort of going in but going on in the background but uh some have been saying that they had been largely priced into the stock.
我听到的主要是围绕资本开支。显然，就在3个月前，人们还在质疑这笔支出。现在你看到了新闻的成功。我们今天早上了解到，根据数据，40天内下载量达到1000万次。我们知道，广告，或者至少对广告的预期，预计会相当不错。
Um what I'd been hearing is mostly around the capex. I mean obviously just 3 months ago there were questions about the spend. Now you've had the success of news. We learned this morning we're looking at 10 million downloads in 40 days according to the data.
We know that the advertising or at least the expectations around the advertising is expected to be pretty good around that.
但现在对更广泛的市场来说有一个大问题：这是否会成为AI交易的出清事件，显然因为这是该领域的大支出者之一，而许多人正在寻找变现的证明。
But um you know there is a big question now for the broader market as to whether this would be a clearing event for the AI trade just obviously given this is one of the big spenders in the space and many are looking for that proof of monetization.
在我结束前还有一件事，一位分析师今天早上告诉我，就今晚电话会上的措辞而言，他们希望听到扎克伯格采取和埃隆·马斯克在 SpaceX 时类似的方式，围绕 Grockbot 的那种对话，谈论这在他眼中将是他一生中见过增长最快的产品。
如果 Meta 能给出这样的评论，那对股价未来走势肯定非常有利。
One thing just before I uh finish up here that an analyst told me this morning was that as far as the language tonight on that call, they would like to hear uh Zuckerberg kind of take the same approach as Elon Musk did with the SpaceX type of um conversation around Grockbot talking about how this in his eyes would be the fastest growing product he's ever seen in his life.
If they get comments like that coming from Meta, uh then that could be certainly very positive for the stock moving forward.
再回头看一下 Meta。我们仍上涨4%。
Just to check back in with Meta. We're up 4% still.
好的。KG，我知道你给我发了条消息，让我回到 Meta 谈你注意到的事情。我在想是不是刚弹出的新闻提醒，但我让你来说。如果不是那个，我来分享。
All right. And and KG, I know I got a message here from you to go back to Meta for something that you've noticed. And I'm wondering if it's the news alert that just came across, but I'll let you get to it. If it's not that, I'll share it.
不是那个。我也刚看到。所以你大概有比我更酷的标题。但我只是想强调，这里将发行的新一类股票。听起来这次新发行中，如果有的话，20%将由所有者内部持有，80%将随时间向市场开放。这实际上非常独特，因为这不会稀释现有股东。
我认为这也是你看到相当强劲买盘的另一个原因。而且从机制上看，A类股和C类股在价格走势上不应脱节太多。所以这实际上是一种非常非常聪明且独特的方式，既能筹集资金为AI领域提供资金，又不会在资产负债表上增加更多债务，同时也不会在价值和投票权方面稀释股东。
所以，在这样一个对债务融资非常关键的环境中，Meta 采用这一策略值得称赞。
It is not that. And I just saw that too. So you actually have probably the cooler headline than I do. But I just wanted to highlight the fact that this uh new class of shares that are going to be released here.
It sounds like 20% of this uh new issuance, if you will, will be held inhouse to the owners. 80% will be available for uh the market over time. And this is actually very unique because this does not dilute current shareholders.
And I think that's another reason why you are seeing a pretty strong bid here. And if mechanically the A shares and the C shares should not disconnect too much uh when it comes to price action.
So this is actually a very very smart and unique way to actually raise capital to fund the AI space without putting more debt on your balance sheet as well as not diluting your shareholders when it comes to value as well as voting rights.
So you know kudos to Meta for looking at this strategy in an environment that's really critical on the the debt raises.
好的。然后我来说说那个不是的另一个标题。那个标题是马克·扎克伯格出来说，如果 Prop 40 通过，他可能会搬离加州。Prop 40，当然，就是亿万富翁税，将对资产超过10亿美元的某些纳税人征收至少5%的税。
那么这对 Meta 未来意味着什么，我们不知道。当然，这还没有通过。但这是一个相当鲜明的立场，因为我们看到加州有很多反对这项潜在亿万富翁税的声浪。
All right. And then I'll get to that other headline that it wasn't. Uh, and the headline is Mark Zuckerberg coming out and saying he may relocate from California if Prop 40 passes.
Prop 40, of course, the billionaire tax that's going to impose at least a 5% tax on certain taxpayers with assets over a billion dollars. So, what that would mean uh for Meta going forward, we don't know.
Of course, this hasn't passed yet. Uh but quite a stance as we're seeing a lot of uh opposition against that potential billionaires tax in California.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 26 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。