META 是强力买入，12个月目标价900美元，对应约15倍的2028年预估盈利；这一上行空间需要广告业务保持强劲、宏观环境持续有利，并需要真正的交易手续费收入和企业业务收入，而 Muse 的1000万用户目前还不等于企业收入，且仍存在安全与隐私方面的担忧。
逐段跳播
想了解更多关于 Meta 的财报以及 AI 市场状况的信息我们的营收超出了预期。广告展示次数和定价数据增长了10%，而我认为定价增长了14%。
For more information on Meta's earnings and the state of the AI market We have exceeded revenue expectations. Ad impressions and pricing figures increased by 10%, and I think 14% in pricing.
我们目前在多大程度上已经看到人工智能如何提升 Meta 的广告收入？我认为你已经指出了最重要的指标，也就是第三季度的关键数据——增长超过了25%，以及第四季度的预测。我认为这也适用于我们的看法：我们预计在2027年和2028年期间，增长至少达到15%，甚至可能达到20%出头。
To what extent are we already seeing how artificial intelligence improves Meta's advertising revenue? I believe you have pointed out the most important indicators, which are the key figures for the third quarter, where growth exceeded 25%, and the forecasts for the fourth quarter.
I think this also applies to our view, where we expect growth of at least 15%, and perhaps even into the early twenties, during 2027 and 2028.
我想说，人工智能方面的投资正在为其核心业务带来巨大的收益，尤其是在广告方面。事实上，这个板块的增长速度是我们所看到的整个数字广告行业增速的两倍以上。因此，从额外增长的角度来看，收益是显而易见的。
I would say that investments in artificial intelligence are yielding tremendous benefits for their core business, specifically in advertising. In fact, this sector is growing at more than twice the rate of what we see in the digital advertising industry in general.
Therefore, the benefits are clear in terms of additional growth.
我们认为这种增长不会停止，未来两年他们将有明确的机会实现收入多元化，并从人工智能中创造新的收入来源。Yaqoub，我们看到公司营收超出预期，并上调了第四季度的预测，但股价今早却下跌了超过5%。
你如何看待这些业绩？市场是不是在说：“是的，你的核心广告业务很强，但赢得 AI 的代价已经太高了？”你已经明确表达过这一点。
We believe this growth will not stop , and they will have clear opportunities to diversify their revenues and generate new sources of income from artificial intelligence over the next two years.
Yaqoub, we saw the company exceed revenue expectations and raise its forecast for the fourth quarter, but the stock fell by more than 5% this morning. How do you view these results?
Is the market saying, "Yes, your core advertising business is strong, but the price of winning in AI has become too high?" You have stated that explicitly.
投资者最初很热情，但后来注意到存在许多挑战。我们看到了很多新闻更新，无论是来自 Apple、Amazon 还是其他公司。令投资者兴奋的人工智能影响尚未体现在实际业绩中，因为相关消息是在第三季度末才公布的。
但我们也看到了人工智能在管控方面的影响所带来的挑战，以及这在财务上可能意味着什么。
Investors were initially enthusiastic , but later noticed that there were many challenges. We have seen many news updates, whether from Apple, Amazon or others. The impact of artificial intelligence, which excites investors, has not yet appeared in actual earnings, as it was announced late in the third quarter.
But we also see the challenges of the impact of artificial intelligence on control , and what that could translate to financially.
Angelo，你给 Meta 股票设定了900美元的目标价，并给出了强烈买入的评级。未来12个月要达到这个价格需要什么条件？是 Muse 吗？
Angelo, you have a $900 price target and a strong buy recommendation for Meta stock. What will it take to reach this price over the next 12 months? Is it Muse ?
我认为 Muse 将在这一切中发挥关键作用。在我们看来，我们今年早些时候将其评级上调至“强烈买入”的原因在于估值方面。股价从高点回落后仍在交易，按2028年估算的市盈率约为15%。
I think Muse will play a pivotal role in all of this. In our opinion, the reason we raised our recommendation for it earlier this year to "strong buy" is the valuation aspect. The stock price is still trading after retreating from its highs , with the price-to-earnings ratio estimated at around 15% based on 2028.
所以，只要我们相信它们会继续表现良好，我们就需要积极的宏观经济前景延续下去，广告板块继续繁荣。如果这种情况持续，并且它们开始展现出非广告收入真正实现盈利的迹象，正如我提到的，那么最重要的是在这一侧产生一些基于交易的费用，同时还要在企业侧展现出一些成功。
这对它们来说是一个全新的领域。那么，再加上它们在模型侧所做的工作，据我们所知，随着未来几年规模的扩大，这也会带来可观的收入。在过去几周和几个月里，它们已经提供了非常有力的证据，证明了自己的成果，无论是 Muse Wonder 还是过去六个月里的一些早期原型。
So, as long as we believe they will continue to perform well, we need the positive macroeconomic outlook to continue, and the advertising sector to continue to thrive . If this situation continues, and they begin to show real signs of profitability from their non-advertising revenues, as I mentioned, then the most important thing is to generate some transaction-based fees on this side, in addition to showing some success on the enterprise side.
This is a completely new field for them. Well, then we add to that what they are doing on the model side, and that will also generate significant revenue, as far as we know, over the next couple of years as it expands.
They have provided very strong evidence over the past weeks and months of what they have accomplished, both with the Muse Wonder and some of their previous prototypes over the past six months .
他们说，一旦具备可扩展性，它将成为主要的收入驱动力，但我们需要讨论安全问题以及如何衡量这些问题。我已经提到了经济层面以及欺诈和错误的可能性。你如何看待 Muse 的未来，以及除了我们正以出色的数据看到的这种广泛采用之外，它们可能面临哪些潜在障碍？
They said that once it becomes scalable, it will become a major revenue driver, but we need to discuss security concerns and how to measure them. I have mentioned the economic aspects and the potential for fraud and errors.
How do you view the future of Muse and what potential obstacles they might face, in addition to this widespread adoption we are witnessing with excellent numbers?
从我们的角度来看，Muse 面临诸多挑战，因为 Meta 以犯过许多错误而闻名，并且在某种程度上忽视了与安全和隐私相关的挑战。我个人预计 Muse 会从机构层面面临这些挑战。确实，我们会看到消费者有很高的需求，我们已经看到了大约1000万用户。
但在消费级市场有1000万用户，并不一定意味着在企业级市场能带来100亿美元的收入。它们还有很多东西需要检查和评估，特别是智能体能否控制自己的行为。这并不一定意味着该智能体有能力做到这一点，或者它的能力究竟如何。
它们仍然需要投入时间和资源，在未来验证这些能力。Meta 的股价今天下跌了5%。
From our point of view , Muse faces a number of challenges, as Meta is known for its many errors , and has somewhat overlooked the challenges related to security and privacy. I personally expect Muse to face these challenges from an institutional perspective.
It is true that we will see a high demand from consumers, and we have already seen around 10 million users. But 10 million users in the consumer world does not necessarily mean $10 billion in revenue in the enterprise world.
They still have a lot to check and evaluate, specifically whether the agent can control what he does. This does not necessarily mean that the agent is capable of doing that or what his capabilities are.
They still need to invest time and resources to verify these capabilities in the future. Meta's stock fell by 5% today.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 30 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。