Meta 每股价值 1800 美元，未来至少有 2.7 倍增长空间，按接近 1 的 PEG 计算约可达 1890 美元；他持乐观态度并持有该股，尽管 26% 的营收增长伴随着 45% 的成本上升、利润率收窄和约 12 亿美元负现金流，他也可能过于乐观。

Mark Zuckerberg is back at work again. This time, to make matters worse . They are splitting the stock at a rate of two to one. Meta's two-for-one stock split is designed to give you shares without voting rights.

Basically, dividends are distributed to everyone who currently owns voting shares in Meta.

The benefit you receive is negligible, because the value of the stock will simply be determined on that day. The benefit for Mark Zuckerberg is that he retains more voting shares, and if they want to issue more non-voting shares, they can do so without weakening their control to help raise money for their business, which spends a lot of money on chips.

However, I will say that there is a lot to be excited about in this earnings report, so we will review it line by line here.

First, the price of advertising increased by 14 % as engagement on Instagram and Reels reached its highest level ever. The interaction per user has doubled from the first quarter to the second quarter, and they have just surpassed "Threads".

A blow to Elon, or sorry, they just bypassed "X" via "Threads". A blow aimed at Elon.

So somehow, Threads now has more use for X than X, which I personally find hard to believe. But I don't really know how they do cross-promotion; Because if you post on Facebook or Instagram, it will automatically be posted to Threads, and they have about 3 billion active users.

I have the exact number here; it will appear soon. They have approximately 3 billion active users on Facebook and their family of apps. Here it is. Look at this. 3.64 billion users every day.

This is a great goldmine for advertising revenue, and they make a lot of money from it.

500 million companies use some of the products in the family of apps, whether it's WhatsApp, Instagram, or others. This is truly impressive . I mean, these are just too many numbers.

It is difficult not to control "X" when "X" has perhaps 500 million monthly active users. Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg have 500 million active businesses per month. They have 3.6 billion daily active users.

This is equivalent to 7 times the user base of "X". That's crazy.

Anyway, how do they make profits from this? Well, certainly through advertisements, but also hopefully in the future through news. Now, not at the moment . Currently, they make it clear that they are spending a lot of money on News, and they hope to significantly reduce their spending on it in the future.

They have avoided specifying the cost of providing "News" to each customer at the present time. They believe that future models will be much cheaper, and therefore they will be able to serve News customers at a lower cost in the future.

But there is no real evidence about the size of the profits they will be able to make in the future.

As a News user, I would say that they did make an offer eventually, and you might want to check it out; perhaps you have the offer too. Perhaps it's just a clever way to get you to subscribe, and you know I'm not backed by Meta, so I wanted to make that clear.

But they did , you know, send a subscription to the "News" Ultimate plan as a free gift for a year. So , yes, you've got the ultimate plan. Your free subscription ends on October 10, 2027 .

This is rather cool , but I think they are trying to attract people, because there were rumors that many people had downloaded News but not many used it regularly.

To counter some of those rumors, Meta released some statistics . They say that 25% of users who have set up proxies use it daily. They actually claim that this is much better than the starting point, and is twice the starting point they got with Threads , where people might create an account there and then not use it.

With "Muse", they are seeing double the activity compared to what they started with with "Threads", which is very encouraging.

They said that Blade and Stripe had to make adjustments to their systems because the volumes were huge , and they did not expect it to flow like this with Muse, which is impressive.

Returning to "Meta", they ended up achieving lower-than-expected results in their operating income; Because they have incurred fees of nearly $10 billion related to settling lawsuits about the effects and harms of social media, and as you know, there are clear ways to get compensation from these cases, so a lot of people are saying, " Hey, the money is available to everyone."

You might want to sign up to get it , otherwise it will go to someone else , right? If you or your child have spent years growing up on social media and have experienced serious mental health problems, you should hear this.

Recently, a jury ordered Meta and YouTube to pay millions for their role in designing and promoting addictive platforms. They knew their apps could contribute to anxiety, depression, and body image problems, but they didn't share those risks and preferred profits.

The recent landmark ruling confirms the consequences of those decisions.

However, they say that running Muse currently requires extremely intensive computing capabilities. This seems very logical. I expect, and they do too, that this cost will decrease over time.

However, Zuckerberg notes that people will likely demand better models in the future, so they are not entirely sure of the final cost , and that is why they are not offering any guidance.

They say that "Muse" is expected to arrive on Meta glasses next month. I made a note that this is a big deal because the current AI in glasses is very bad. So, if they bring that to glasses, it actually means you could get something that's pretty much like a very good "Siri" assistant , so to speak.

It's a really functional thing that you can use as a wearable device, so to speak.

In any case, Meta offered some insights into having 15 million subscribers, which is truly impressive for a Meta One subscription.

Zuckerberg spoke about the goal being to get your smart agent to work with other agents, as if they were playing in " multiplayer" mode instead of " single player" with their agents.

I think this would be really great. We've used Muse to make phone calls and schedule appointments before, and then companies say, "Hi, we've scheduled an appointment with your AI agent, but we just wanted to check that you've set this up."

And we say to them: "Yes". But this somewhat defeats the purpose of the order , because I now have to make a phone call to check with the agents here . So, if one agent can talk to another agent, maybe that will bypass all this nonsense, right ? This is the hope in theory.

However, their staffing levels have already decreased by 15% year-on-year. This is truly unbelievable. So, this is a company that is growing at approximately 20 percent annually, while its number of employees has decreased by 15 percent year-on-year.

The fact that Meta is able to lay off 15% of its employees year after year. The fact that eBay is laying off employees, and Netflix is laying off employees too. All these companies have begun to realize that they can do a lot using artificial intelligence.

They do not need the same number of employees , and the ultimate beneficiaries of artificial intelligence will not be people. Rather, they will be the companies that use artificial intelligence to be more productive and replace humans.

This has been my opinion since 2023, and I still stand by this prediction.

Anyway. They stated that their forecast is between 73 and 76 billion in the next quarter, which is truly impressive . This represents a quarterly trend of 15.3% compared to this quarter at the midpoint, and that means about 24.4% year-on-year.

So, a growth of 15.3% compared to this quarter. And 24.4% on an annual basis. I think they achieved growth of about 26% this quarter. We'll see in a moment.

Oh, yes, I want to mention that they are now running advertising partnership platforms. This amounts to 15 billion in annual recurring revenue. This is primarily for influencers to get creator sponsorship deals with Meta.

Basically, it can be said : "Hey, if you promote our product, we'll pay you for this, and Meta will take its share." So, Meta kind of wants to be the control panel for this . I really don't know if anyone watching this cares about this at all .

But from the creator's point of view, it's rather interesting . I think this could be an interesting place, because if you are interested in Meta, you are probably a business owner and want to promote something .

The registration date and the dividend payment date will be determined later, so we do not know when the split will be; it has not yet been decided. If we look at the company's financial data here, we can see that revenues have increased by 26%.

However, the profit margin is shrinking. 98% of revenue still comes from advertising, but their costs have increased by 45%. So, costs have increased by 45%. Revenues increased by only 26%.

This means a decrease in the margin. To be honest, they need less marketing, probably because they distribute " Muse" for free, and this does the marketing for them. So, this has a positive effect on profit, but it increases their costs , which is a negative effect.

They are also increasing spending on research and development, which is exactly what is happening at Tesla as well. Their administrative and general expenses also increased by 39%, reducing profits.

The headline was that Mark Zuckerberg was considering leaving California because of the 5% wealth tax if Proposition 40 is passed. It would be retroactive to January 1, 2026. So, a retroactive wealth tax .

Don't worry, your friend "Mit Kevin" has nothing to worry about.

But thank you for your interest in me. Good. So, we have $82.4 billion in cash and tradable securities . They have another 22 billion in accounts receivable. $63 billion in invoices, meaning they have about $82 billion in free cash if accounts receivable are applied to the invoices.

Or excuse me. Wait a moment. Wait a moment. Let's calculate this correctly here. So, that comes to about $104 billion if we add accounts receivable . $104, $105 billion . This discount gives us approximately 40 billion in free cash.

So , let's clarify that. You have $40 of free cash. This, as you know, is compared to Tesla's approximately $14 billion. They have more money here in free cash, but they spend a lot of it on leases.

I was reviewing some of my research notes, and Meta had practically doubled the size of its off- balance-sheet leases. These are called leases that have not yet commenced. Their liabilities amount to $279 billion of leases that have not yet commenced as of the second quarter of 2026.

This is not part of this balance sheet . Therefore, there are more off-budget commitments here. So, long- term debt is just speculation because it is not very transparent, which is not good in bubble economics.

We have already shifted to negative cash flow here. For the past nine months, we have been positive, and in the last quarter we have been positive. We have just shifted to a negative cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion.

Now, if we look at the financial projections for this company, which we haven't done yet, we will do it together. I still believe this stock is worth $1800. I am very optimistic about the stock, but I also have exposure to the stock.

Although I don't think I'm saying that just because I have it, you know . I believe I possess it because I believe in it . As you know, I don't think it's, you know, a chicken-and- egg situation. In this case, I think it is indeed important .

But anyway, if you look at the stock, let's say it's a stock priced at $720 divided by 32.48, I'm looking at a price-to- earnings ratio of 22 times to the end of 2026. And the growth forecast according to Wall Street, which is a slightly higher growth rate , is only 17.8% divided by

So if you put them at a price-to-earnings-to- growth (PEG) ratio of around one, and based on the margins I think we'll reach, we have at least 2.7x growth ahead of us. A multiplier of 2.7 would bring us to a share price of approximately $1890 .

Again, I may be overly optimistic about this, but that's my opinion of Meta.