META本季度表现强劲:营收超预期,每股收益未达预期仅因一次性成本,剔除该成本后每股收益高于预期,且指引更佳;自由现金流为负,因资本开支超过经营现金流,同时资本开支指引上调。扎克伯格将Muse视为长期收入驱动力,尽管目前97%的收入来自广告。
逐段跳播
Kevin,在我们聊 Meta 和 Tesla 这类公司之前,先谈谈整体大局。
Okay Kevin, before we get into companies like Meta and Tesla, let's talk about the big picture.
接下来看看一些已经公布财报的公司。关于 Meta,我知道在数据首次发布时,你是第一个报道这条消息的。我当时在观察盘后市场的反应,看起来是正面反应。现在,我们面临一些压力。看起来问题并不出在 Meta 这家公司本身,不过我们还是来回顾一下你的一些结论。
Let's move on to some of the companies that have announced their earnings. Regarding "Meta", I know that you were the first to report the news when the numbers were first released.
When I was observing the market's reaction after working hours, it appeared to be a positive reaction. Now, we are facing some pressure. It seems that this is not about the "Meta" company, but let's review some of your conclusions.
是的,我同意这一点。我认为这是一种“买传闻、卖事实”的行情。我们看到公司公布营收为646亿美元,超过了市场预期的633.7亿美元。再看调整后每股收益,出现了下滑。这部分利润为3.83美元,市场预期是5.46美元。
但下滑的原因是本季度有一笔98.9亿美元的成本。这笔成本全部完成后可能达到186亿美元。因此,如果剔除这笔季度成本,每股收益大约为7.40美元,远高于市场预期。这就是为什么我们看到了这点小幅波动。
现在,自由现金流为负,为21.2亿美元,因为资本支出超过了其日常业务产生的经营现金流。至于未来指引,在某些方面也再次好于市场预期。第四季度营收平均为750亿美元,市场预期约为737亿美元。
随后,资本支出指引被上调。目前这一区间的下限是1350亿至1450亿美元。他们实际上把最低门槛上调了50亿美元。再看消息面,这也显然吸引了大量关注。他们会把这一点整合进 Meta 眼镜。
过去六周里,在美国和加拿大有超过1000万用户,可以说,已经设置了代理。但对我来说最重要的消息,而且我相信这也是最初上涨的原因,是他们将为每一股 A 类股或 B 类股发行一些 C 类股。
这一举措将从2027年1月起生效。因此,这实际上将形成一比二的拆股。但这保留了 Mark Zuckerberg 对公司投票控制权的权利,并且不会再次稀释 A 类股的价值。这是他们为 AI 支出融资的另一种方式,与我们看到的其他公司大量发债来为 AI 资本支出融资的做法相比,这很独特。
所以,股价最初向上走。但我们目前正在经历下跌。这再次是一种“买传闻、卖事实”的行情,但这个季度确实很好,而且不仅财报里,电话会议里也包含了很多信息。
Yes, I agree with that. I think it's a kind of "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. We saw the company announce revenues of $64.6 billion. It exceeded market expectations of $63.37 billion.
When you look at the adjusted earnings per share, there has been a decline. These profits reached $3.83. The market expectation was $5.46. But the reason for this decline is due to a cost of $9.89 billion during the quarter.
This cost could reach $18.6 billion after everything is completed. Therefore, if you exclude this quarterly cost, earnings per share would be around $7.40, which is much higher than market expectations.
That's why we saw this slight variation. Now, free cash flow came in negative, at $2.12 billion, because we see capital spending exceeding the operating cash flows generated from its day-to-day business.
As for future guidance, it is again better than market expectations in some aspects. Fourth quarter revenues, averaging $75 billion. Market expectations were around $73.7 billion.
Subsequently, the capital expenditure guidelines were revised upwards. The lower end of this range is now $135 billion to $145 billion. They have effectively raised the minimum threshold by $5 billion upwards.
Looking at the news, it has also clearly attracted a great deal of attention. They will incorporate that into "Meta" glasses. They had more than 10 million users in the United States and Canada who had set up proxies, so to speak, during the past six weeks.
But the most important news for me, and I believe it is the reason for the initial rise, is the fact that they will issue some Class C shares for every Class A or Class B share.
This action will be effective from January 2027. Therefore, this will effectively result in a two-for-one stock split. But this preserves Mark Zuckerberg's rights regarding voting control of the company, and will not again dilute the value of Class A shares.
This is another way they will raise capital to fund AI expenses, and it is unique compared to what we have seen from other companies that have issued a lot of debt to fund AI capital spending.
So, the arrow initially moved upwards. But we are currently experiencing a decline. Once again, it was a "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" kind of event, but this quarter was really good, and it included a lot of information not only in the earnings report, but also in the conference call.
Mark Zuckerberg 看起来非常高兴。是的,我的意思是,真正让我注意到的一点是,他相信 Muse 最终可能带来比他们应用家族更高的单用户收入,而后者目前每年已经能从每个用户身上赚到数百美元。
所以,他把 Muse 和 AI 故事视为主要的长期收入驱动力,我认为至少可以说,这是一个很大的表态,因为我们已经知道,他们目前97%的收入来自广告和传统业务。因此,他们正在扩张,并试图调整自己的业务组合。
他对此非常乐观,我认为这可能是最受关注的头条。我们知道“Muse Charm”很快就会发布,他们也会推出一些更小、更便于携带的模型。但总体而言,这是一个强劲的季度,他们似乎有清晰的愿景,提供的业务前景信息比我们过去看到的更多。
这正是 Meta 在群体电话会议中面临的挑战之一。
Mark Zuckerberg seemed very happy. Yes, I mean, one of the things that really caught my attention was his belief that Muse might eventually generate more revenue per user than their family of apps, which already earns hundreds of dollars per user annually.
So, he's looking at Muse and the AI story as a major long-term revenue driver, and I think that's a big statement, to say the least, because we already know that 97% of their revenue right now is advertising and traditional.
So, they are expanding and trying to adjust their portfolio. He is very optimistic about this, and I think this was probably the biggest headline to emerge. We know that the "Muse Charm" will be released soon, and they will also have some smaller models to be more portable.
But overall, this is a strong quarter, and they seem to have a vision, providing more information about their business outlook than we have seen in the past. That was one of the challenges Meta faced in their group calls.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 29 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。