$META · Meet Kevin · 2026-10-26
META 今日看涨，因为它守住了 702 并维持在该水平之上，正从这些位置向上走，因此在该位置买入的机会看起来已经错过。900 亿美元的储架发行和稀释是财报后的逢低机会——财报已使 META 跌近 100 美元；若 200 日均线失守，607 是软支撑，约 540 是主要支撑；CDS 上升预示违约风险。
逐段跳播
然后今天早上，我们听说 Meta 发行了一笔储架发行，结果是为900亿美元。而说实话，Meta 今天几乎没怎么跌，这一点很值得注意。哇，1.8。看看这个。它没有跌得更多，这有点令人惊讶。
Then this morning, we heard that Meta issued a shelf, which it turns out is for $90 billion. And the fact that honestly Meta is barely down on the day. Wow. 1.8. Look at this. The fact that it's not down more kind of remarkable.
不过，公平地说，如果把视角拉远到他们的财报来看，他们跌得要多得多，对吧？他们跌了接近100美元。所以，这个看法是，其中很大一部分融资以及大致这个规模可能早已被市场充分预期，而稀释正是现在 Meta 出现逢低买入机会的原因。
Now, in fairness, if you zoom out from their earnings, they're down quite a bit more, right? They're down closer to 100 bucks. So, the suggestion is that a lot of that funding and the sort of amount may have already been closely expected and that dilution is the reason there's now a dip opportunity in Meta.
不过，它相比 Meta Muse 那个时刻仍然涨了不少。如果看 Meta Muse 那个时刻，我们当时在下方这条橙色支撑线这里。现在，我们在200日移动均线。现在，我们在5，呃，或者说540是那里的长期支撑线。
如果跌破这条200日线，是的，607会成为另一个潜在的软支撑线，但540左右才是真正的大举加仓的价位。
Though, it's still up quite a bit from the Meta Muse moment. If we look at the Meta Muse moment, we were down here at the orange support line. Right now, we're at the 200 day moving average.
Now, we're at five uh or 540 is the uh the longerterm support line there. If we lose this 200 day, yeah, 607 becomes another potential soft line, but 540ish is really your big like back up the truck level.
你其实会注意到，在盘前，我们在这里一度距离607这条线只差两三个美元。当那笔储架发行公告出来时，这有点疯狂。但今天想看到更近或更好的线吗？就在这里。看看那个7:15。我们今天走的是线到线。
我是说，那个7:15非常完美。它在7:15处有四次拒绝。
You'll actually notice in pre-market, we got within two, three bucks over here of the 607 line. kind of crazy when that shelf offering announcement came out. But want to see closer or better lines today?
Right here. Look at that 7:15. We went lineto line today. I mean that 7:15 that was perfect. It was at four rejections of the 7:15.
顺便说一句，你可能在想，Kevin，为什么，为什么你今天看涨？原因是我们在702处守住了，并且一直保持在它上方。
By the way, you might be wondering, Kevin, why why did you go bullish today? The reason is because of the holds that we've had at 702 and how we've stayed over.
我刚移动了我的线。好了。这就是为什么按下锁定非常重要。幸运的是，按下 control-z，线就会回到原来的位置。但这条线，70287，并不是100%完美，但我们基本上一直在这条下方线附近来回弹，来回弹的幅度足够让我觉得，哦不，今天这是看涨的一天。
我们正从这些水平往上走。在这些水平附近买入的机会正在流失。
I just moved my line. There we go. This is why it's very important that you hit lock. Fortunately, you hit control-z, the line will go back to position. But this line right here, 70287, hasn't been 100% perfect, but we've been essentially rubber banding around that lower line right here enough to where I'm thinking, oh no, today this is a bullish day.
We're moving up off of these levels. The opportunity is is getting lost to buy around those levels.
Meta 的 CDS 今天又暴涨了。记住，信用违约互换的交易方式就像一只迷因股。所以我有点觉得，你得到的，呃，我之前提到过，我不想，你知道，该怎么说呢？我不想在这里老调重弹，但我有点觉得这就像完美的迷因交易，你进去，基本上就是买 CDS，因为它们就是一直涨。
呃，这就像最疯狂的的对冲。呃，但不管怎样，你知道，Meta 的 CDS。盯着这些。它几乎和这张图完美吻合。
Meta CDS has skyrocketed again today. Now, remember credit default swaps, they trade like a meme stock. So, I kind of think that what you're getting uh and I've mentioned this, I don't want to, you know, how should I say it?
I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but I kind of think it's like the perfect meme trade where you go in and you basically just buy CDS's because they just keep going up. Uh it's like the craziest hedge.
Uh but anyway, you know, meta CDS's. Watch these. It almost perfectly aligns with this chart.
那么，我们把它调出来。来了。这些是 Meta 今天的走势，直接垂直拉升，这说得通，因为显然如果公司要再融资900亿美元，违约的潜在风险就更大。
So, let's pull this up. Here we go. These are metas today, which just went vertical, which makes sense because obviously if the company's going to raise another $90 billion, there's the greater potential risk of a default.
股价只跌了1.88，88，这确实表明债券市场今天只是有点受到惊吓，开始意识到，糟糕，还有多得多的融资要来了。
The stock only being down 1.88 88 does suggest that the bond market really just took a little bit of a rattling today on starting to realize a dang there is a lot more fundraising coming.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 28 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。