$META · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-26
Meta 的 AI 投入正在显现成果(自 4 月以来每人 Meta AI 互动量翻倍,Meta Muse 下载量突破 1000 万),其接近成本的眼镜加上毛利率约 70% 的订阅策略可能非常赚钱,Reality Labs 的亏损已过峰值;但今年至少 1350 亿美元的资本开支,到 2027 年可能升至 1500-1750 亿美元,只有在这一成功持续的情况下才合理。
逐段跳播
Meta Platforms 正在开发多种方式来利用其在大型语言模型上的投资。我们已经看到其用户群体的参与度有所提升,因为他们的平台变得更有吸引力,也更能展示人们觉得更有趣的内容。
Meta Platforms is developing several ways to leverage its investments in its large language models. We have already seen an increase in engagement among their user base, as their platforms have become more attractive and capable of displaying content that people find more interesting.
最近,我们看到了 Meta Muse 个人智能体的成功,它在短短一个半月多的时间里下载量就突破了1000万次。
Recently, we saw the success of Meta Muse's personal agent, which surpassed 10 million downloads in just over a month and a half.
因此,这些对 Meta 的股票投资者来说是重要进展,因为该公司正为其 AI 数据中心和能力投入数千亿美元的资本支出。
Therefore, these are important developments for Meta's stock investors, as the company is spending hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditures on its AI data centers and capabilities.
这里有一个来自 Meta 的证据:他们表示,自4月开始推出新模型以来,每个人与 Meta AI 的互动次数已经翻倍。
Here is a point of evidence from Meta stating that they have seen a doubling of interaction per person with Meta AI since April, when they began rolling out their new models.
但我认为可穿戴设备在这里存在机会,尤其是 Meta 是从眼镜起步的。这个品类里还没有像 Apple 那样的主导者,而且它是人们可以佩戴的东西,很多人已经在佩戴,它能提升人们的日常生活,因为眼镜结合个人 MetaMuse 智能体可以帮助你更高效地度过一天。
But I think there is an opportunity here for wearable devices, especially since Meta started with glasses. There is no dominant player like Apple in that category, and it is something that people can wear, and many already wear, and it can enhance their daily lives as the glasses combined with a personal MetaMuse agent can help you get through your day more effectively.
策略是把这些产品的定价定在接近成本的水平,以扩大使用范围,然后通过这些设备的重复销售来获利。假设 Meta Muse 作为个人智能体在帮助人们方面变得极其高效,而且你可以销售内置在眼镜中的 Meta Muse 订阅服务,每月9.99美元。
那将极其有利可图,据我估计,提供这类产品的毛利率接近70%,属于高利润率收入。
The strategy is to price these products at a price close to cost in order to expand the scope of use, and then profit from repeat sales through those devices. Let's say Meta Muse has become incredibly effective at helping people as a personal agent, and that you can sell Meta Muse subscriptions built into the glasses for $9.99 a month.
That would be extremely profitable, with high-margin revenues approaching 70% as a gross margin, in my estimation, on offering such a product.
我认为,包括我在内的许多 Meta 投资者都很高兴看到他们在虚拟现实和元宇宙上的投资之间取得平衡,并把投资重点放在人工智能上,而且他们现在预计 Reality Labs 部门的盈亏状况将从这里开始改善。
I think many Meta investors, including myself, were pleased to see that they were balancing their investments in virtual reality and Metaverse, and focusing their investments on artificial intelligence, and they now expect the profit and loss for the Reality Labs sector to improve from here.
因此,他们的“Reality Labs”部门已经达到了亏损峰值,并预计从那时起情况会有所改善。我们仍在等待看到像 Meta 这样的公司何时会就其资本支出宣布类似的消息。他们什么时候会说:“好,今年将是我们 AI 资本支出的峰值,从今往后将会下降。”
是不是这样?不是2026年。根据我在这里看到的管理团队的情况,2027年也不太可能。
Therefore, they have reached the peak of losses in their "Reality Labs" sector and expect things to improve from that point onwards. We are still waiting to see when companies like Meta will announce something similar about their capital expenditures.
When will they say, "Okay, this year will be the peak of our AI capital expenditure, and from this point onward it will decline." Isn't that so? Not in 2026. It's unlikely to be in 2027 based on what I've seen from the management team here.
尽管他们没有提供2027年的具体指引,但他们确实谈到了正在对其人工智能业务进行大规模且快速的投入。因此,在我看来,他们似乎不会达到峰值,支出也不会减少。在我看来,他们明年的资本支出将会增加。
Although they did not provide specific guidance for 2027, they did talk about how they are making large and rapid investments in their artificial intelligence business. Therefore, it doesn't seem to me that they will reach a peak or that spending will decrease.
It seems to me that their spending on capital expenditures will increase next year.
根据他们修订后的资本支出估算,今年他们将至少支出1350亿。因此,如果明年,也就是2027年,这个数字从1350亿上升到1500亿,甚至可能达到1750亿,我不会感到意外,这就是 Meta 2027年的资本支出。
This year they will spend at least 135 billion according to their revised capital expenditure estimates. So I wouldn't be surprised if the figure rose next year, 2027, from 135 to 150, and perhaps even 175 billion in Meta's capital expenditures in 2027.
现在,为了让投资者欣然接受这一点,Meta 需要展现出像它最近那样的持续成功。Meta Muse 在头一个半月就有1000万次下载。这种类型的成功。Facebook、Meta 平台和 Instagram 上的参与度提升,从而通过广告带来更多收入。
这种类型的成功可以为人工智能上的巨额支出计划提供理由。
Now, in order for investors to accept that with open arms, Meta needs to demonstrate continued success like it has recently done. 10 million downloads for Meta Muse in the first month and a half.
This type of success. Increased engagement on Facebook, Meta platforms, and Instagram, in order to generate more revenue through advertising. This type of success could justify massive spending plans on artificial intelligence.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 17 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。