$META · Financial Education · 2026-10-26
说话者短期看空 Meta，预计其将维持区间震荡，令近期创历史新高的期望落空，该股两周内已下跌约 17.5%。五到十年维度他非常有信心，理由是 Meta 的业务很有价值，且扎克伯格有能力调整方向；他认为盈利的 Meta 比亏损的 Anthropic 更便宜，不过 Meta 会把赚到的钱全部花掉，还可能借债或增发股票。
逐段跳播
与此同时，Meta 的股价持续下跌。仅在过去两周里就下跌了约17.5%。这正是我一直就 Meta 发出警告的事情。尽管我长期看好这家公司。如果你今年听过我谈论它，我对短期非常悲观。
我已经无数次说过这只股票短期内会区间震荡，不是吗？
Meanwhile, Meta's stock keeps falling. It's down about 17.5 percent in just the last two weeks. This is something I've been warning about regarding Meta. Although I'm optimistic about this company in the long term.
If you've ever heard me talk about it this year, I'm very pessimistic about the short term. I've talked countless times about this stock being range-bound in the short term, haven't I?
所以，虽然我是长期投资者，对这家公司未来五到十年非常有信心，但我不是短期的信徒，从来都不是。这恰恰证明，每次你以为这家公司要创历史新高时，你总是会失望。至少就这家公司的短期而言是这样，对吧？
So, while I'm a long-term investor and very confident in the company for the next five to ten years, I'm not a short-term believer, and I never have been. This just proves that every time you think this company is going to hit an all-time high, you're always disappointed.
At least in the short term with regard to this company, right?
Meta 的总市值是1.6万亿美元。所以，我们说的是比 Anthropic 上市时的估值少5000亿美元，甚至可能少超过5000亿美元，对吧？
Meta's total market capitalization is $1.6 trillion. So, we're talking about half a trillion dollars less than what Anthropic will go public at, or maybe even more than half a trillion dollars less, right?
那 Meta 给你带来了什么？你得到 Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、Threads 和 Muse AI，长期来看这个 AI 机会有多大，我们拭目以待，对吧？
它起步相当不错，但还要再看看。也许它是下一个大热门，也许不是，我不知道。但这里的寓意是，你得到的是世界上一些最有价值的业务。这太不可思议了。Facebook 是一项非凡的业务，代表了一个时代。
Instagram 是一项代表一个时代的业务，不是吗？WhatsApp，我是说，你谈的是数十亿用户用它来在全球建立联系。而 Threads，据我了解，现在用户数已经超过了 X。
他们在那里的成就令人难以置信，不是吗？然后是 Muse，这家 AI 公司，起步不错，我们看看它最终是否会成为大业务。但你得到的是整个公司，还有扎克伯格，他已经证明了自己有能力改变公司的航向，因为如果你长期经营企业，最重要的事情就是证明你有能力改变航向。
仅仅创造一项业务是不够的。你必须在多年里不断进入新的产品和服务，才能让你的业务保持相关性和持续发展。
What do you get for Meta? You get Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads, and Muse AI, and we'll see how big that opportunity is in the long run, right? It's started off pretty well, but we'll see.
Maybe it's the next big thing, maybe No, I don't know. But the moral of the story here is that you get some of the most valuable businesses the world has ever seen. It's incredible.
Facebook is an extraordinary business that represents a generation. Instagram is a business that represents a generation, isn't it? WhatsApp, I mean, you're talking about billions of users who use it to connect around the world.
And Threads, now, as I understand it, has surpassed X in terms of users. It's incredible what they've achieved there, isn't it? Then there's Muse, the AI company, which has started off well, and we'll see if it eventually becomes something big.
But you get that whole company, and you get Zuckerberg, who has proven his ability to change the course of the company, because the most important thing if you're in business for a long time is proving your ability to change course.
Just creating one business isn't enough. You have to be able to go into new products and services over the years to keep your business relevant and keep it going.
你为 Anthropic 付的钱比 Meta 还多，这合理吗？用简单的逻辑，如果我们把数字放在一起看，你肯定会说：“这说不通，因为 Meta 在赚大钱，而 Anthropic 在亏大钱。”
Does it make sense that you're paying more for Anthropic than you're paying for Meta? With simple logic, and if we look at the numbers together, you'd definitely say: "That doesn't make sense, because Meta is making a fortune, while Anthropic is losing a fortune,"
Meta，我们知道他们拿到每一分钱都会花掉，这是一大笔钱。而且他们会为此借钱或发行股票。这一点我们知道。
Meta, we know they spend every penny they get, which is a lot of money. And they'll borrow or issue shares for it. We know that.
Meta，我在2022年以每股不到100美元的价格买入 Meta 股票。当时没人想要 Meta。
Meta, I was buying Meta stock for less than $100 a share in 2022. Nobody wanted Meta.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。