$META · Daniel Pronk · 2026-10-28
Meta 正在数字广告领域胜出：第三季度广告收入增加130亿美元，而 Google 为78亿美元；Meta 增长超过25%，而 Google 的广告业务放缓；自2021年第二季度以来，Meta 上涨131%，Google 上涨100%。说话者预计 Meta 将在两个季度内、很快超过 Google，成为全球最大的数字广告商，并因 Meta 更便宜而更倾向于加仓 Meta 而非 Google。
逐段跳播
而且，就像 Meta 本季度的现金流量表里有很多噪音一样。
And also just as there was a lot of noise in Meta's cash flow statement this quarter.
因此，Google 与 Meta 和 Amazon 类似，为了建设 AI 基础设施，它的自由现金流已经转为负值。
Therefore, Google is similar to Meta and Amazon, as it has become negative free cash flow in order to build AI infrastructure.
这也很有意思，因为 Meta 的业务继续实现超过 20% 的增长率，并保持在 25% 左右的增长。所以在我看来，Google 的广告业务正在放缓，而 Meta 继续增长超过 25%，这使得 Meta 的盈利相比之下显得好得多。
which is also interesting because Meta's business continues to achieve growth rates exceeding 20% and maintains growth of around 25%. So, to me, the fact that Google's advertising activities are slowing down while Meta continues to grow by more than 25% makes Meta's earnings look much better by comparison.
我每个季度还会做另一件事，就是跟踪 Google、Meta 和 Amazon 广告收入的增长情况。不过，第一张图是各季度广告收入的净增量。可以看到 Meta 是赢家。Meta 第三季度广告收入增加了 130 亿美元，而 Google 为 78 亿美元。
这意味着 Meta 吸引的广告资金比 Google 更多，而且现在增长更快。
Another thing I do every quarter is track the growth of advertising revenue for Google, Meta, and Amazon. However, this first graph is the net additions in advertising revenue for each quarter .
You can see that Meta is the victor. Meta added $13 billion in advertising revenue in the third quarter compared to $7.8 billion for Google. This means that Meta is attracting more advertising dollars than Google and is growing faster now.
我也对过去 12 个月的数据做了同样的处理。这里可以看到，Meta 正在追赶 Google 的广告业务。按这个速度，Meta 有望在未来两个季度超越 Google。这将正式使 Meta 成为全球最大的数字广告公司。而且我再次认为，这很快就会发生。
I also do the same thing with the figures for the past 12 months . Here you can see that Meta is following Google's advertising activity. At this rate, Meta is on track to overtake Google in the next two quarters.
This will officially make Meta the world's largest digital advertising company. And again, I think this will happen very soon.
下一张幻灯片展示了这些公司自 2021 年第二季度开始跟踪这些指标以来广告收入的总增长。这里我们可以看到 Meta 继续强劲增长，而你可以注意到 Google 的广告业务正在放缓。
自 2021 年第二季度以来，Meta 实现了 131% 的整体增长，而 Google 为 100%。
The next slide shows the total growth in advertising revenue for these companies since the second quarter of 2021 when they began tracking these metrics. Here we can see that Meta continues to grow strongly, while you can notice that Google's advertising activity is slowing down.
Meta has achieved overall growth of 131% compared to 100% for Google since the second quarter of 2021.
再一次，所有这些都表明 Meta 的广告业务表现非常好。Google 的财报让 Meta 的数据相比之下显得好得多。
Once again, all of this indicates that Meta's advertising business is doing very well. Google's report makes Meta's numbers look much better than that.
他们维持了 2026 年资本支出指引在区间内，但表示 2027 年的支出将大幅增加，正如 Meta 也指出的那样。
They kept their 2026 capital expenditure guidance within range, but said 2027 spending would increase significantly, just as Meta also indicated.
同样清楚的是，Meta 正在数字广告领域取胜，并吸引更多广告收入。
It is also clear that Meta is winning in the field of digital advertising and attracting more advertising revenue.
但总体而言，我仍然认为 Meta 和 Amazon 更便宜，我的重点将是在我的投资组合中买入更多 Amazon 和 Meta 的股票，而不是在这里加仓 Google，原因很简单：我认为那两家公司仍然提供大得多的价值。
But overall, I still think Meta and Amazon are cheaper, and my focus will be on buying more Amazon and Meta shares in my portfolio rather than adding more Google here, simply because I think those companies still offer much greater value.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。