$META · Everything Money · 2026-10-31
暂无中文摘要,仅英文原句可核对。
逐段跳播
接下来,我们将用三家股价已经下跌的大公司来真正检验一下“逢低买入”策略。这三家是Google、Meta和Dell。
Then we will put the “buy the dip” strategy to a real test with three big names whose shares have declined. Google, Meta, and Dell.
那么,现在就把它付诸实践。我们拿这三家因人工智能支出不断累积而股价下跌的公司——Google、Meta和Dell——来发掘它们的真实价值。
So, let's put that into practice now. Let's take these three companies that have declined as spending on artificial intelligence has piled up – Google, Meta, and Dell – and discover their true value.
现在,我们来看第二个,Meta。各位,以下是看好Meta股票的理由。其主要广告引擎增长强劲。在10月21日发布的报告中,Meta宣布营收同比增长26%。广告展示次数,也就是向用户展示的广告数量,增长了10%,平均广告价格上涨了14%。这真是难以置信。
Now, let's move on to Meta, arrow number two. Okay guys, here are the reasons to be optimistic about Meta's stock. The primary advertising engine is growing strongly. In its report issued on October 21, Meta announced a 26% year-on-year increase in revenue .
Ad impressions, i.e., the number of ads shown to users, increased by 10%, and the average ad price increased by 14%. This is unbelievable.
第二,人工智能可以改进广告并创造新的商业产品。Meta已面向小企业推出其AI代理“Muse”,并集成了Shopify、QuickBooks、Stripe和Canva。这些产品可能帮助Meta在传统广告之外实现销售。
Secondly, artificial intelligence can improve advertising and create new commercial products. Meta has launched its AI agent " Muse" for small businesses with integrations including Shopify, QuickBooks, Stripe, and Canva.
These offers may help Meta sell outside of traditional advertising.
第三,第三个乐观理由是,公司正在增加更多由AI引导的方法,以维持其平台的实用性。Facebook推出了相关工具,让用户可以指定自己的兴趣,并修改“Feed”和“Reels”中的推荐内容。
各位,这些公司是靠人们留在其平台上赚钱的。因此,它们的目标是确保向我们提供我们想看的那类内容。
Third, the third reason for optimism is that the company is adding more AI-guided methods to maintain the usefulness of its platform. Facebook has introduced tools that allow users to specify their interests and modify recommendations in the "Feed" and "Reels".
Guys , these companies make money when people stay on their platforms. Therefore, their goal is to ensure that we are provided with the type of content we want to see .
现在,我们来看悲观的理由。人工智能的扩张正在给成本带来压力,并提高了所需回报的门槛。Meta第三季度的成本和费用同比增长68%。各位,营业利润下降了37%。
Now, let's move on to the reasons for pessimism. The expansion of artificial intelligence is putting pressure on costs and raising the bar for required returns. Meta's costs and expenses rose by 68% year-on-year in the third quarter . Guys, operating income fell by 37%.
第二,Meta正寻求筹集巨额资金,为其人工智能基础设施提供资金。所以,各位,他们发行了总价值1000亿美元的股票。这样做可能会稀释股东的持股比例。这不是好事。
Secondly, Meta is seeking to raise a huge amount of capital to fund its artificial intelligence infrastructure. So, guys, they're offering shares worth a total of $100 billion.
In doing so, you may cause shareholders' stakes to be inflated. This is not a good thing.
第三,在人工智能中使用内容的商业条款已引起大量审查。路透社报道称,数字出版商和广告商向欧盟和英国当局投诉了相关条款,他们称这些条款可能赋予Meta广泛使用其内容的权利。因此,这件事接下来可能会引发一些法律纠纷。
Third, the commercial terms for using content in artificial intelligence have attracted a lot of scrutiny. Reuters reported that digital publishers and advertisers complained to EU and UK authorities about terms they said could grant Meta broad rights to use their content.
Therefore, there may be some upcoming legal battles regarding this matter.
随着我们进入技术的新阶段,人们总会担心市场会发生什么,以及各国和监管机构会怎么做。这种情况会持续下去。现在,我们来看看Meta的数据。Meta的估值为1.6万亿,企业估值为1.73,债务为1200亿美元。
目前,Meta的现金流已大幅下降。公司去年产生了300亿美元的自由现金流,尽管其净利润为750亿美元。过去五年,它产生了380亿美元的自由现金流,尽管这五年的净利润为500亿美元。
尽管现金流减少,我仍然不担心他们的债务,因为资金正被投入到人工智能中。
As we enter a new phase of technology, concerns always arise regarding what happens in the markets and what happens with countries and regulatory agencies. This will continue. Now, let's take a look at Meta's figures.
Meta is valued at 1.6 trillion, and the enterprise is valued at 1.73, with debts of $120 billion . Currently, Meta's cash flow has decreased significantly. The company generated $30 billion in free cash flow last year, even though its net income was $75 billion.
It generated $38 billion in free cash flow over the past five years, although its net income for the five years was $50 billion. I am still not worried about their debt, despite the reduced cash flow, because the money is being invested in artificial intelligence.
接下来,是像Google一样的高资本回报率。他们的利润率略为稳定一些。总体基本在30%到31%,不过毛利率要高得多,为81%,而你可能还记得,Google是60%。所以,我对此有些意外,但我希望它能稍微稳定下来。我希望它会随着时间推移开始小幅上升。
Next, high returns on capital, just like Google. Their profit margin is slightly more stable. Essentially 30 to 31% overall, although the gross profit is much higher at 81% compared to 60% for Google, as you may recall.
So, I'm somewhat surprised by that , but I hope it settles down a bit. I hope it will start to rise a little over time.
各位,现在的区别在于,Meta的售价仅为利润的21倍。如果你还记得,2022年11月它的股价是每股88美元,按此计算今天的市盈率大约是3到4倍?如果它现在还卖88美元,那就能看出市场有多疯狂了。
Now, the difference, guys, is that Meta is only selling for 21 times the profits. If you recall, in November 2022, it was trading at $88 per share, which makes today's price-to-earnings ratio approximately three or four?
If it were still selling for $88, that would show how crazy the markets are.
好,现在这是我们的八项支柱。你猜怎么着?和Google完全一样。五年市盈率和五年自由现金流率的数据更好,但过去五年现金流也下降了。
Okay, now here are our eight pillars . Guess what? Exactly the same as Google. Better figures in the five-year price-to-earnings ratio and five-year free cash flow rate, but cash flow has also declined over the past five years.
我们来看看分析师的预期。分析师预计,未来四年每股收益将从31增长到52,增长率分别为38%、7%、15.5%、24%和9%。这有点令人困惑,但大概落在这个区间内。营收增长分别为27%、20%、18%、18%和8%。营收从2540亿美元增长到4600亿美元。
Let's take a look at the analysts' estimates. Analysts expect earnings per share to grow from 31 to 52 in the next four years, with growth rates of 38%, 7%, 15.5%, 24%, and 9%.
It's a little confusing, but it probably falls within that range. Revenue growth was 27%, 20%, 18%, 18%, and 8%. Revenue growth from $254 billion to $460 billion .
各位,这是一个股票分析工具。营收增长数据。我输入了7%、11%和15%。这可能偏保守,因为营收同比增速约为26%。我敢说我在这里非常保守。我会把数字略微上调到7%、12%和17%。
Okay guys, here's a stock analysis tool . Revenue growth figures. I put in 7%, 11 %, and 15%. That may be conservative because year-on-year revenue growth was around 26%. I bet I'm being very reserved here.
I will raise the numbers slightly to 7%, 12%, and 17%.
接下来是利润率和自由现金流。我输入了28%、30%和32%,只是因为它们尚未证明有能力在营收增长的同时提高利润率,但话说回来,我在这里可能也偏保守。
Next, profit margin and free cash flow. I put 28%, 30%, and 32%, just because they haven't proven their ability to increase profit margins as revenues grow, but again, I might be being conservative here.
接下来是盈利倍数(EPS)。18、22和26。再说一次,我的回报率是9.5%,没有安全边际。
Next, the earnings multiple (EPS). 18, 22, and 26. And again, my return is 9.5 percent with no safety margin.
于是,你按下分析按钮,股票目前是625。看看这个。我得到的低价是586,高价是1900,平均价是1060。真是难以置信。
So, you pressed the analyze button, and the stock is currently at 625. Look at this. I have a low price of 586, a high price of 1900, and an average price of 1060. It's truly unbelievable.
观察点
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。