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$META

$META · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-06

AI 摘要 · The Motley Fool

看多 META:约 20 倍预期市盈率非常有吸引力,财报后的下跌是礼物。广告业务利润丰厚,拥有 30 亿以上用户,下季度收入可能超过 Google;AI 改善定向投放。市场误解 META,因为它没有云业务来抵消庞大的 AI/数据中心支出;自由现金流预计还将为负两个季度,在重大投入完成后一年内可能转正。

看涨他说的是几个月内
《4 AI Stocks Down Big — Time to Buy or Time to Run?》
The Motley Fool发布 2026-11-06 · 16 段内容
04:40/ —打开原视频

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16 段内容
4:4022:35

而现在我们又回到了我认为估值非常低的水平,这就是 Meta 的股票。我认为 Meta 的股价仍比大约两个月前略高一些,在500美元或550美元左右,但它的市盈率约为预期盈利的20倍,有时还略低一些。

And now we're back to what I consider a very low valuation, and that's Meta stock. Well, I think Meta's stock price is still a little higher than it was about two months ago, at around $500 or $550, but it's trading at about 20 times its projected earnings, sometimes a little less.

所以,我们现在又回到了那些水平,而 Meta 本季度的表现非常惊人。我相信到下一季度,其广告业务的收入将超过 Google,这非常了不起。

So , we're back to those levels now, and Meta has performed amazingly this quarter. I believe that advertising business will surpass Google's revenue by the next quarter, which is amazing.

但 Meta 是一家盈利能力很强的公司,其核心业务尤其如此,特别是广告业务。该公司的广告展示量正在增长,并持续吸引更多用户使用其应用系列,目前用户数已超过30亿。

But Meta is a highly profitable company at the core of its business, especially its advertising business. The company is experiencing an increase in ad impressions and continues to attract more users to its suite of apps, which currently exceeds 3 billion users.

因此,这是一家优秀的公司,并且正在快速增长。很明显,人工智能极大地改善了其核心业务,使其盈利能力更强。它现在在新闻传播方面也展现出巨大成功,而这项新闻业务在早期就取得了很大成功。

Therefore, it is an excellent company and is growing rapidly. It is clear that artificial intelligence greatly improves its core business , making it more profitable. It is also now showing great success in news dissemination, and the news achieved great success in its early days.

当然,这项服务并非全球可用。它在美国可用,我相信在加拿大也可用。它最近在日本上线,可能很快也会在其他地方推出。但外界对这项新闻业务的反应非常积极。

Of course, this service is not available globally. Available in the United States, and I believe in Canada as well. It was recently launched in Japan, and may be launched elsewhere soon.

But the reactions to the news were very positive.

运营它是否花费了他们大量资金?是的,这很可能是目前自由现金流偏低的主要原因之一,而预计未来两个季度自由现金流仍将为负,也就是建设数据中心、购买图形处理器等支出。

Does it cost them a lot of money to run it? Yes, and this is probably one of the main reasons for the current low free cash flow, which is expected to remain negative over the next two quarters, namely the construction of data centers, the purchase of graphics processing units, and the like.

不过,我仍然认为市场误解了 Meta 的业务,因为与 Microsoft、Amazon 或 Google Alphabet 不同,它没有云业务,无法说“看,我们花了多少钱,并通过云业务产生了收入”。

However , I still think the market misunderstands Meta's business because, unlike Microsoft, Amazon, or Google Alphabet, it doesn't have a cloud business that allows it to say, "Look, we're spending a certain amount and generating revenue through our cloud business."

但他们可以说:“看,我们正在大力投资核心业务。我们的核心业务在定向投放方面不断改进,一直在改进。我们的推荐系统也在改进,现在我们正在投资新闻等新产品,我们将逐步从中产生利润。”

But they can say: "Look, we are investing heavily in our core business. Our core business is constantly improving in targeting, it's constantly improving. Our recommendation systems are also improving, and now we are investing in new products like news , from which we will gradually generate profits."

但他们也提到,从新闻业务中赚钱会比 Meta 通常的做法早得多,因为他们认为机会已经成熟,但他们也意识到需要以某种方式开始赚钱。

But they also mentioned that making money from the news will start much earlier than usual in Meta, because they will see the opportunity as ripe, but they also realize the need to start making money one way or another.

所以,Meta 公布财报后,其股价在盘后交易中上涨了7%,随后又回落。

So, Meta's stock rose 7% after trading hours when they announced their earnings, then fell again.

我认为这是市场送的一份礼物,因为我真心相信这是一个非常赚钱的项目,在重大投资完成后,自由现金流将转为正值,也许就在从现在起一年之内。

I consider this a gift from the market, because I truly believe this is a very profitable project, and the free cash flow will turn positive, perhaps within a year from now, after the major investments are completed.

并非全部都会完成,但重大投资已经做出,你现在将开始看到核心业务发展,并在可预见的未来产生可观的现金流。所以,我需要知道。过去几周谈到 Meta 时我已经重复了很多次,但它就是那种公司——就像明年的 Google 一样(也许我们会在本期视频里聊聊 Google,谁知道呢)——是一家非常优秀的公司,目前对我来说交易价格非常有吸引力。

Not all of it will be completed, but the major investments have been made, and you will now begin to see the core business develop and generate significant cash flow in the foreseeable future.

So, I need to know. I've repeated myself a lot when talking about Meta over the past couple of weeks, but it's one of those companies that, just like Google next year (and maybe we'll talk about Google in this video, who knows), is a very good company that's trading at very attractive prices for me.

是的,我认为 Meta 和许多大型科技公司一样,仍处于建设和投入阶段。这项新闻业务的有趣之处在于,甚至直到 Muse 上线,而且目前仍不清楚这是否会给公司带来长期提振,Meta 获得的大部分人工智能专长都来自内部。他们未能将其有效地投入到可市场化的产品中。

Yes, I think Meta, like many large technology companies, is still in the build and spend phase. What's interesting about the news, even up to the launch of Muse, and it's still unclear whether that will give the company a long-term boost, is that most of the AI expertise Meta gained was internal, you know .

They were unable to invest it effectively in a marketable product.

这对核心广告业务来说是一种增长助力,这很好,但正如我们所见,收入确实增长了,成本却也在大幅上升。如你所知,上一季度的收入同比增长了约30%,但成本增长了约70%。所以,正如你所看到的,营业收入下降了。

This has been a growth boost for the core advertising business, which is great, but as we have seen, there has been revenue growth, but costs are also rising sharply. As you know, revenues for the last quarter rose by approximately 30% year-over-year, but costs increased by approximately 70%.

So , as you can see, operating income has decreased.

显然,现金流面临压力。如你所知,Meta 的乐观派会说,这对他们长期增长的能力至关重要。我认为这或许确实如此,但正是这种差距让一些投资者感到担忧,他们在想:这是短期趋势,还是这种增长和这些成本会随着时间推移而放缓?

Clearly, there is pressure on cash flows. As you know, Meta optimists will say that this is crucial to their ability to grow in the long term. I think this may indeed be true, but this discrepancy is what worries some investors, who are wondering: Is this a short-term trend, or will this growth and these costs slow down over time?

正如我们今天提到的,我们看到一些被认为是全球最强财务公司之一的企业发布了喜忧参半的财报,比如 Meta 和 Alphabet。

As we mentioned today, we have seen mixed reports from companies considered among the strongest financial companies in the world, such as Meta and Alphabet.

观察点

季度报告中的自由现金流
自由现金流再保持两个季度为负,并在一年内转正
两个季度到一年META的季度财报
支持看涨观点

这个频道对 $META 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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