$META · Meet Kevin · 2026-11-09
说话者持有 Meta 并看好它,持仓远多于他买入的另一只股票。他认为 Meta 加大在前置部署销售团队上的支出、以把客户锁定到经常性收入中是明智之举,并预计大幅收入增长将来自这里。他认为 Meta 的信用违约互换稳定且已脱离高点,但尚未明确见顶。
逐段跳播
Meta计划组建销售团队、咨询合作,以争取大公司。是啊,当然。嗯,这其实很聪明,因为这是一套非常Cloudflare式的策略。
Meta plants sales team consulting partnership to win over big companies. Yeah, sure. Well, that's actually smart because this is a very cloudflare strategy.
呃,是Facebook面向内部使用的职场版本。
Uh, workplace version of Facebook designed for internal.
呃,我看看。所以这不太理想。呃,这里写着2020年以来最高的失业预期。好,所以这说明Worsh担心劳动力,想要放慢节奏。好,然后失去工作的感知概率上升了,但仍低于12个月趋势。
这没问题。通胀预期、劳动力市场、找到工作的预期。人口统计。我们去看看这个是在哪里。教育。如果你失业了,未来3个月内找到工作的概率。是啊,你能看到这个趋势在往下走。我们按收入来看看。
不,在所有分组上它都在走弱。尤其是如果你年纪更大。年纪较大者的预期,不过这一直都低于其他所有人。不过这是一张很好的平均图表。这是一个相当有用的数据集。好,让我把它放进去。我们在那上面加个箭头。
然后我们从市场获取通胀预期,因为那也会帮到我们。看看情况如何。这个趋势一直在走。这就像是你的AI时代。AI时代让人们对找到替代工作没那么有信心了。好。好,就是这张图,哎呀,这张图,我们去拿一些其他数据。
我们总是喜欢数据。好,那我们进入这里的数据。呃,我们有CDS信用、五年期、五年期盈亏平衡。让我从那里开始。所以五年期盈亏平衡,因为上周市场大跌时它暴跌了。所以它应该会再涨一点。
哦,它没有。那太好了。那太棒了。那真的很好。好,很好。然后我们看看五年期CDS,或者我们去看,对,Meta的信用违约互换稳定,见顶了。不,我不会说,我不会称之为见顶。
Uh let's see. So that's un ideal. Uh this right here it says highest unemployment expectations since 2020. Okay, so this leans into Worsh being worried about labor and wanting to go slower.
Okay, then perceived probability of losing a job increased but still under 12 month trend. That's fine. Inflation expectations, labor market, job finding expectations. Demos. Let's go see where this was.
Education. Probability of finding a job in the next 3 months if you lost a job. Yeah, you could see that this trend kind of coming down. Let's look at it based on income. No, on all of them it's weakening.
Especially if you're older. The expectations for older well that's always been under everybody else though. This is a good good little average chart though. This is quite a useful data set.
Okay, let me throw that in. Let's throw an arrow on that. And then let's get inflation expectations from the market because that's also going to help us. See what's going on. This trend has really been going.
This is like your AI era. AI era has made people less confident in finding a replacement job. All right. Okay, that is this particular oops chart that let's go get some of the other data.
We always like data. All right, so let's go into the data here. Uh we have CDS credit fiveyear break even fiveyear. Let me start there. So the fiveyear break even because last week it plummeted when the market tanked.
So it should be going up again a little bit. Oh it's not. That's great. That's fantastic. That's really good. Okay, good. And so then let's look at fiveyear CDS or let's go to yeah Meta's credit default swaps stable peaked out.
No, I wouldn't say I wouldn't call it peaked out.
Meta这是多么明显的回落。我这里正好有一条金属线,大约在6:44附近。看起来我们基本就是在那附近被压回来的。
What a rejection on Meta. I've got a metal line right here at 6:44ish. Looks like that's basically where we just got rejected.
然后最终买入了Meta。这两家公司我都喜欢。我持有的Meta多得多。
and then ended up buying Meta. I like both of those companies. I got a lot more Meta.
在我们看好的AI推动者当中,我就是不喜欢Google、Amazon、Meta、Microsoft、SpaceX,完全同意;虽然Nvidia不是超大规模云厂商,但它扮演着关键角色,完全同意。
among the AI enablers we favor I just don't like Google Amazon Meta Microsoft SpaceX totally agree while Nvidia isn't a hyperscaler it plays a key role totally agree
像Oracle、Meta和Core这些公司的信用违约互换并未处于高位。
Credit default swaps are not at their highs for companies like Oracle or Meta and Core.
Meta的CDS也下降了一点。
Meta CDS's have come down a little bit as well.
他们说他们超配Amazon、Meta、Microsoft、SpaceX和Nvidia。就我个人而言,这些名字我每一个都喜欢。
They say they're overweight Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, SpaceX, and Nvidia. Me personally, I like every single one of those names.
Amazon,我持有MA,持有Amazon,持有Meta,持有Microsoft,持有Nvidia,持有SpaceX。这些我都非常看好。
Amazon, I own MA, Amazon, own Meta, own Microsoft, own Nvidia, own SpaceX. Big fan of all of these.
但Meta也在做这件事。Meta计划在销售团队上投入更多资金,基本上就是组建销售团队,就像Palanteer的前置部署工程师那样,进去帮人把系统搭好,把他们锚定到ARR上。真正的大幅收入增长将从那里来。
But Meta is also doing this. Meta is planning to spend more money on sales teams to basically get sales teams just like Palanteer forward deployed engineers to go in set people up and get them anchored into ARR.
That's where the big revenue growth is going to come from.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 28 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。