MGM的自由现金流倍数为5.1倍，估值偏低；日本度假村与股票回购带来的长期增长使其成为强力买入标的。
逐段跳播
这是一家我认为被严重低估的公司。我稍后会谈到增长的部分，因为这是一个长期增长的故事，但增长可能要到下一个十年才会出现。
Now, this is a company that I believe is severely underrated. I'll get to the growth part in a moment because this is a long-term growth story , but that may come in the next decade.
但我想先花一点时间谈谈估值。当前、此时此刻的市价与自由现金流之比是5.1。即便按面向未来的口径来看，也大约在5.3左右。
But, I want to talk about value for just a moment. The current price-to-free cash flow ratio, here and now, is 5.1. Even on a future-oriented basis, you are looking at around 5.3.
因此，那部分自由现金流可能不会增长太多。但看看这只股票在过去两个月里取得了什么。你在这里看到的这波上涨，发生在它们收到People Inc.的收购要约之时，我认为People Inc.就是原来的IAC。
Therefore, that free cash flow probably won't grow much. But look at what the stock has achieved over the past two months. So, this rise you see here happened when they received a takeover offer from People Inc., which I believe is the old IAC.
Barry Dealer Company。他已经是董事会成员了。他对MGM Resorts非常了解。这家公司被认为被低估了。他提出了收购要约。
Ah, Barry Dealer Company. He is already a member of the board of directors. He knows a lot about MGM Resorts. The company is believed to be undervalued. He made a takeover bid.
我一直认为这说不通，因为它只是……它仍然会是一家上市公司。所以，你只是把钱从一个口袋转移到另一个口袋。但市场的反应很明确。这波行情最终在这里被抹去，当时股价从大约40美元跌到我们如今所在的约30美元。
I never thought it made sense, because it was simply...it would still be a publicly traded company. So, you are transferring money from one pocket to another. But the market reacted clearly.
That was eventually pulled out here when the stock crashed from around $40 to around $30 where we are today.
但既然我们已经到了这个价位，这家公司被低估了吗？我认为你首先应该看的是它们的核心业务在哪里，以及它如何随时间增长。这张图是2017年的，金色代表拉斯维加斯大道收入。蓝色代表区域业务的收入。
紫色是MGM China，也就是它们在澳门的权益。绿色则是它们在MGM Digital的部分。
But now that we've reached this price, is the company undervalued? The thing I think you should look at first is where their core business lies and how it grows over time . This chart is from 2017, and you have the Las Vegas Strip revenue in gold.
The color blue represents revenue from regional operations. The purple color is MGM China, i.e., their stake in Macau. Then the color green is what they have at MGM Digital.
这有点复杂，但这不是美国的BetMGM，而是与Entain各占一半的合资企业，所以有现金流从中产生。
It gets a little complicated, but this isn't BetMGM in the US, it's a 50/50 partnership with Entain, so there is a cash flow coming from that.
无论如何，仅从这一点就能看出，这项业务比疫情前大得多，我认为这会让很多人感到震惊。它在过去两年里略有下滑，因为人们大量回流，尤其是回到拉斯维加斯，并在酒店和赌场里花了很多钱。这一数字略有下降。
In any case, just by looking at this, you can see that the business is much bigger than it was before the pandemic, which I think will shock a lot of people. It has declined slightly over the past two years because you have seen a kind of influx of people returning to Las Vegas in particular, and spending a lot of money in hotels and casinos . That has decreased slightly .
但这仍然是一门现金流极好的生意。MGM Resorts的增长将来自日本。该公司正在建造日本唯一会建成的赌场。这是一个比新加坡更大的市场。
But this is still an exceptionally good cash flow business. Growth for MGM Resorts will come from Japan. The company is building the only casino that will be built in Japan. This is a larger market than Singapore.
因此，这里的基准将是新加坡的滨海湾金沙。如果你见过那座赌场，它看起来像一座三层塔楼，顶上有个像滑板一样的东西。那就是那座赌场。它每年产生约30亿美元的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润。
因此，它是这些度假村所产生现金流的一个参照指标。
Therefore, the benchmark here will be Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. If you have ever seen that casino which looks like a three-story tower with something on top that looks like a skateboard.
That's the casino. It generates approximately $3 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization each year. Therefore, it is an indicator of the cash flow coming from these resorts.
他们已经谈到，大阪的这栋建筑开业后可能同样赚钱。它的建设成本约为100亿美元。MGM将在未来两年每年向这个项目投入约10亿美元。之后它们的现金义务就结束了。
They have already started talking about the fact that this building in Osaka could be just as profitable when it opens. Its construction will cost approximately $10 billion . MGM will invest approximately $1 billion annually over the next two years in this project. Their cash obligations will then end .
到2030年，这家公司将变成一台现金流机器。如果我们看它们当前的收入，大约是170亿美元。它们今天的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA），在扣除租金之前，约为50亿美元。租金支出接近20亿美元。
因此，我们可以估算出大约有30亿美元的现金流进入公司的业务。
The company will become a cash-flow machine by 2030. If we look at their current revenue, it is around $17 billion. Their adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), and before deducting rent, are about $5 billion today.
Rent payments amount to nearly two billion dollars. Therefore, we can estimate that there is a cash flow of approximately $3 billion entering the company's business.
他们仍有足够的流动性来回购自己的股票，而且他们有能力这样做。他们也可以略微提高业务的杠杆。
They still have enough liquidity to repurchase their shares, which they can do. They can also slightly increase the leverage of their business.
我认为，这正是那种我们会在5、6年后回过头来看、然后说“这是一个不容错过的买入机会”的公司，因为一旦MGM日本度假村开业，它就真正变成了一只成长股，而且他们在2026年、2027年和2028年开始每年回购15%至20%的流通股。
I think this is one of those companies that we will look back on in 5 or 6 years and say: " This was an unmissable buying opportunity because it really became a growth stock once the MGM Japan Resort opened , and they started repurchasing 15-20% of outstanding shares annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028."
因此，我认为这是一家目前被大大忽视的公司。天哪，我要称赞你提出了这个关于MGM的被低估的成长故事。当然，你以长期投资的心态把投资付诸实践，着眼于未来5到7年，认为这正是增长将会兑现的时候。
但这是一个非常有趣且直截了当的投资逻辑，我真的很支持它。你几乎让我现在就想出去研究一下MGM。
Therefore, I think it is a company that is largely overlooked today. My God, I commend you for bringing up this underappreciated growth story regarding MGM. Of course, you put your investments into practice with a long- term investment mindset, looking 5-7 years into the future to say that this is when growth will materialize .
But it is a very interesting and straightforward thesis, and I can really support it. You almost make me want to go out and look into MGM right now.
从更宏观的角度来看，另一件需要考虑的事情是，我认为随着我们扩大人工智能的使用、增加数字事物的数量，并更加依赖远程办公，这些现实世界的体验将变得越来越重要。
Another thing to consider , from a broader perspective, is that I believe these real-world experiences will become increasingly important as we expand our use of artificial intelligence, increase the number of digital things, and become more reliant on remote work.
我的意思是，我们这次会议是远程录制的。如你所知，我们住在这个国家相隔遥远的地区。等等，如果我们见面，我们的目的地会是哪里？拉斯维加斯。它是这样做的前三、前四或前五个选择之一。如果你在亚洲，情况也是一样；也许你会在澳门见面，或者在这个日本新度假村开门营业时在那里见面。
I mean, we are recording this meeting remotely. We live, as you know, in widely separated areas across the country. Wait, if we meet, what will our destination be? Las Vegas. It's one of the top three, four, or five options for doing that.
The same applies if you are in Asia; perhaps you will meet in Macau, or perhaps at this new resort in Japan when it opens its doors.
我相信这些现实世界的体验将变得更有价值，并将形成一道真正的竞争“护城河”。这道护城河并不局限于他们对这些赌场、度假村以及其中举办的所有娱乐设施的所有权，以及他们的实体存在。事实上，至少在美国和亚洲，这些被视为有组织的垄断。
I believe that those real-world experiences will become more valuable, and will form a real competitive "trench" . This trench is not limited to their ownership of these casinos, resorts, and all the entertainment facilities that take place in them, and their physical presence.
In fact, at least in the United States and Asia, these are considered organized monopolies.
如你所知，拉斯维加斯大道地区并没有新的土地被加入进来。因此，MGM拥有其中大约一半。在未来五十年里，这将是一个非同寻常的局面。
As you know, the Las Vegas Strip area does not have new land being added to it. Therefore, MGM owns about half of it. That will be an exceptional situation for the next fifty years .
澳门只有六个牌照。你能建造的赌场数量是有限的。你能拥有的赌桌数量是有限的，而且政府对此施加了限制。在日本，这将是那里唯一的度假村。
Macau has only six privileges. There is a limited number of casinos that you can build. There is a limited number of tables you can own, and the government places restrictions on that. In Japan, this will be the only resort there.
所以，当你把这一切综合起来看，你会发现，如果现实世界的资产将变得更加重要，那么谁拥有世界上一些最有价值的现实世界地段？是MGM。
So, when you look at all of this, you find that if real-world assets are going to become more important, who owns some of the most valuable real-world locations in the world? It's MGM.
是的，我完全无法反驳这一点。一个非常有力的投资逻辑。
Yes, I can't disagree with that at all . A very strong thesis .
观察点
这个频道对 $MGM 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。