$MKL

MKL 是一只值得长期持有的标的;当前市净率为 1.2 倍,承保业绩改善与资本配置为其良好表现提供支撑。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Can Markel Really Become the Next Berkshire Hathaway?》
The Acquirers Podcast发布 2026-10-05 · 17 段内容
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17 段内容
0:006:46

这个领域里有两个竞争对手。其中一个,我认为是Markle,我对他做了更仔细的研究,Jonathan。我认为Markle的好日子即将到来。但我不想骗人说它一定会。我知道那样说有利于制造头条新闻之类的,但事实并非如此。

There are two competitors in the arena. One of them, I think, is Markle, whom I took a closer look at, Jonathan. I think great days await Markle. But I don't want to be deceptive and say that it is.

I know that's good for headlines and such, but it's not .

你有一家公司,正以1.2倍账面价值的价格被出售,而它在过去两年里错过了强劲的保险市场。他们不擅长签发保险文件,这对一家保险公司来说是个问题。

You have a company that is being sold for 1.2 times its book value, which has missed out on a strong insurance market over the past two years. They were not skilled at issuing insurance documents, which is a problem for an insurance company.

但看起来他们正在改变方向。不过,他们有一位新的人负责这件事,到目前为止初步结果看起来非常有希望。综合赔付率正在下降。

But it seems they are changing course. However, they have a new person in charge of this, and so far the initial results look very promising. The percentage of combined losses is decreasing.

或者有一位活跃投资者参与其中,Jana Partners,他们提出的建议我认为有些有道理,有些则不太有道理,但他应该……公司由Tom Jenner经营。他在股票回购方面相当吝啬。

我认为未来他会稍微更积极一些。如果他不这样做,我认为Markle……会让他们的日子非常不好过。

Or there is an active investor involved, Jana Partners, who are putting forward proposals that I think make some sense and some are less so, but he should ... The company is run by Tom Jenner.

He was rather stingy with his share buybacks. I think that in the future, he will be a little more aggressive. And if he does n't, I think Markle...will make their lives very unpleasant.

所以,我认为有很多我喜欢的地方。我认为这可能是一家你可以长期持有并获得非常好业绩的公司。它会成为Berkshire Hathaway吗?不会,但它可能是一只不错的股票。

So, I think there are a lot of things I like. I think it could be a company you could keep for a long time and achieve very good performance. Will it be Berkshire Hathaway? No, but it might be a good stock.

他们怎么会错过强劲的保险市场?那里发生了什么?我的意思是,他们没有做出很好的努力来扩大保险保单的签发。他们在增加将要签发的文件数量方面做得不好。他们进入了再保险业务,那是一场灾难。

如你所知,唯一表现良好的部门是国际部门,新来的人就是从那里来的。所以,他们错过了机会,这就是现实。

How did they miss out on the strong insurance market ? What happened there? I mean, they haven't made a good effort to expand the issuance of insurance policies. They did not do well in increasing the volume of documents they were going to issue.

They entered the reinsurance business , which was a disaster. As you know, the only department that performed well was the international department, which is where the new person came from.

So, they missed the opportunity, and that's the reality.

或者,往前看,如果他们能降低那个综合百分比,那本质上就是他们的利润率,或者说那将提高他们的利润率。或者他们可以随着时间推移表现非常好,尤其是如果他们以1.2倍账面价值回购股票的话。

Or, to move forward, if they can reduce that aggregate percentage, which is essentially their profit margin, or which will increase their profit margin. Or they can perform very well over time, especially if they repurchase the shares at 1.2 times their book value.

此外,他们拥有工业企业以及一些金融资产。他们有一个相当不错的股票投资组合,讽刺的是,事实就是如此。或者也许这并不矛盾,因为Berkshire Hathaway是他们最大的投资公司。

In addition, they own industrial companies and some financial assets. They have a fairly good stock portfolio , and ironically, that's how it is. Or perhaps it's not paradoxical, as Berkshire Hathaway is their largest investment firm.

所以,有些东西……这个名字有很多值得钦佩的地方。我认为把几乎任何一家公司拿来比较并说它会是下一个Berkshire Hathaway都是不公平的。但我认为投资者应该更仔细地看一看。

So, there are things...there's a lot to admire about this name. I think it's unfair to compare almost any company and say that it will be the next Berkshire Hathaway. But I think investors should take a closer look.

那正是我的问题。在过去这段时间里,交易价格相对于账面价值表现如何?我认为它们都经历了2020年,并跌到了低于账面价值的水平。远低于账面价值。是的,我相信从历史上看它们处于1.7或1.8倍账面价值。

与Berkshire和Fairfax相比,大多数时候它总是略贵一些。

That was my question. How did trading perform relative to book value during the past period? I think they all went through 2020 and became less than their book value. Much less than the book value.

Yes, and I believe historically they are at 1.7 or 1.8 times book value. It was always slightly more expensive most of the time compared to Berkshire and Fairfax.

但对他们来说,账面价值,我不想说它具有误导性,但他们有所有这些其他类型的业务在那里。因此,很难必然把账面价值当作正确的乘数,但如果你能以1.2倍账面价值买入一家盈利的保险公司,并且它能在未来两年提高保费,我认为你会做得很好。

But the book value for them, I don't want to say it's misleading, but they have all these other types of business there. Therefore, it is difficult to necessarily consider book value as the correct multiplier, but if you can buy a profitable insurance company at 1.2 times book value and it can increase insurance premiums over the next two years, I think you will do well .

你认为我们会看到那里的估值扩张,还是说这就是公允价值,你只是获得了良好的基本面增长?我相信你永远不能仅仅依赖估值倍数的扩张。啊,那会是那样,但我认为你只会获得更好的经营表现,你知道,更好,而且我认为你会获得更好的士气,这将带来更高的评级,但我不认为你可以把这当作唯一因素来依赖。

你必须有一份好工作,能够持续改善或持续表现出色和卓越。

Do you think we will see an expansion in valuation there, or is this the fair value and you are just getting good underlying growth ? I believe you can never rely solely on the expansion of complications.

Ah, that would be the case, but I think you'll simply get better operational performance, you know , and better, and I think you'll get better morale, which will lead to a higher rating, but I do n't think you can rely on that as the sole factor.

You must have a good job that will continue to improve or continue to perform brilliantly and excellently.

他多大了?如果你是长期持有者,而他们在理性地配置资本,你每天醒来都祈祷价格下跌以便更便宜。只要他们在回购股票。啊,你知道,他们做得不够积极,但没错。啊,但如果你有钱可投,那么是的,你希望你的持仓减少,直到你完全投入这家公司。

How old is he? If you are a long-term owner and they are allocating capital rationally, you pray every day when you wake up that the price will go down to be cheaper. As long as they repurchase the shares.

Ah, you know, they weren't doing it aggressively enough, but yes. Ah, but if you have money to invest, then yes, you want your holdings to decrease until you are fully invested in the company.

Tom Gaynor多大了?我认为是在六十多岁,也许我错了,六十多岁后期。这看起来几乎是真的吗?我认为是的,我认为比那要小。我认为可能是这样的,是的。我不想再给他加岁数了。啊,是的,嗯,但是,现在是,他们还把它命名为,哦,有趣的是Markel也不是一家控股公司。

How old is Tom Gaynor? I think it was in the late, perhaps I'm wrong, late sixties. Does this seem almost true? I think it is, I think it is smaller than that. I think it might be something like yes.

I do n't want to add any more years to it. Ah, it is, um, but, it is now, they also named it, oh, what is interesting is that Markel is not a controlled company either.

嗯,Mark,在过去三年里,是63岁。我的意思是,这个,如你所知,是在五年的时间范围内。啊,抱歉Tom,如果你在听的话。我,我,不是那个意思,不是故意要把你说得比实际更大。嗯,这不是一家控股公司。

啊,我认为Steve Markel刚刚离开了董事会,Tom现在是董事长兼首席执行官。我一般不喜欢这类情况,但这就是现实。

Um, Mark, in the last three years, is 63 years old. I mean, this, as you know, is within a five-year timeframe. Ah, sorry Tom, if you're listening. I, I, did not mean, did not mean to make you bigger than you are .

Um, it's not a controlled company . Ah, I think Steve Markel has just left the board, and Tom is now chairman and chief executive. I generally don't like these kinds of situations, but that's the reality.

但有人可能会买下这家公司。嗯,你知道,我不知道是谁,但你知道,据我了解,日本保险公司,在企业集团和保险公司中,对美国保险公司有很大的胃口。

But someone might buy this company. Um, you know, I don't know who, but you know, from what I understand, Japanese insurance companies, in conglomerates and insurance companies, have a big appetite for American insurance companies .

所以,这就是投资论点吗?不是,但如果股票保持低位,你永远不知道。是的,那将会发生,但人们可能会错误地认为这家公司由Markel家族控制。

So, is this the investment thesis? No, but if stocks stay low , you never know. Yes, that's what will happen, but people might mistakenly think that this company is controlled by the Markel family.

这个频道对 $MKL 的历次判断

The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-05看涨本条
这个领域里有两个竞争对手。其中一个,我认为是Markle,我对他做了更仔细的研究,Jonathan。
2026-09-30看涨
Markle是我们非常熟悉的名字。它是下一个Berkshire Hathaway吗?不是。我的意思是,我认为它是一项有吸引力的投资。我相信Berkshire Hathaway只有一个。我认为Markle前途光明,但我不想虚伪地说它是……我知道那样说对头条新闻之类有好处,但它不是。
原话 35:56 ›
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