MMM 股票目前略微高估（股价 163 美元，而合理价值为 143 美元）；暂不宜买入，应等待更低的价格或重组效益的进一步证明。
逐段跳播
3M 是一家以便利贴最为人熟知的工业公司，近年来经历了多次重大重组。鉴于贸易壁垒不断增加、伊朗战争、油价上涨以及供应短缺，公司需要这样做。但公司已经开始看到从这些变化中受益的迹象。
3M, the industrial company best known for its sticky notes, has undergone several major restructuring efforts in recent years. Given the increasing trade barriers, the war in Iran, rising oil prices, and supply shortages, the company needed it.
But the company has already begun to see signs of benefiting from these changes.
营收增长正在加速，利润率预计将进一步扩大。这是否让 3M 的股票在如今10月成为一个买入机会？我想结合这些近期进展以及公司的长期表现来看一看并回答这个问题，并考虑其估值，以判断它现在是否是一个有吸引力的买入机会。
Revenue growth is accelerating, and margins are expected to expand further. Does this make 3M shares a buying opportunity now in October? I wanted to take a look and answer this question taking into account these recent developments, along with the company's long-term performance, and consider its valuation to determine whether it is an attractive buying opportunity right now.
你提到公司正在进行一次重大重组，管理层正在做的事情之一就是剥离那些类似大宗商品的业务。这导致其营收从350亿下降到约250亿，但有机营收增长正在加速。
You mentioned that the company is undergoing a major restructuring effort, and one of the things management is doing is getting rid of commodity-like business activities. This has led to a decrease in its revenues from 35 billion to about 25 billion, but organic revenue growth is accelerating.
因此，3M 的管理团队审视了其众多品牌，发现了许多机会，可以借此出售或剥离其中一些品牌，以及一些已经变成类似大宗商品业务的板块。
Therefore, the 3M management team looked at its multiple brands and found many opportunities through which they could sell or get rid of some of those brands and some of those sectors that had turned into commodity-like businesses.
现在，如果我们排除围绕诉讼及其结果的波动，以及2023年和2025年的盈利能力波动，你可以在图表上看到那些上升。
Now, if we exclude the volatility surrounding the litigation and its outcomes, and the profitability fluctuations in 2023 and 2025, you can see those ups on the chart there.
从长期来看，3M 的营业利润率徘徊在20%左右，并呈下降趋势。十年前，营业利润率接近25%，但过去十二个月一直接近21%。
Looking at the long term, 3M's operating profit margin hovered around 20% with a downward trend. A decade ago, the operating profit margin was close to 25%, but over the past twelve months it has been close to 21%.
不过，正如我在引言中提到的，管理层正在做出多项改变，并乐观地认为营业利润率将在短期内增长到25%。
However, as I mentioned in the introduction, management is making several changes and is optimistic that operating profit margins will grow to 25% in the near term.
有助于改善利润率的其中一个方法是提高价格，以抵消部分更高的石油成本。管理层估计，其产品组合整体提价约1.5%。
One of the methods that contributed to improving margins was raising prices to offset some of the higher oil costs. Management estimated an overall price increase of approximately 1.5% across their product portfolio.
他们还将制造工厂的数量从约110家减少到约100家。他们还使用人工智能来改善公共支出。信息技术、人力资源、财务和会计等部门因使用人工智能而效率得到提升。
They also reduced the number of manufacturing facilities from about 110 to about 100. They also use artificial intelligence to improve public spending. Departments such as information technology, human resources, finance and accounting are experiencing improved efficiency as a result of the use of artificial intelligence.
总体而言，管理团队预计所有这些因素将在未来带来利润率的改善。
Collectively, the management team expects all these factors to lead to improved margins in the future.
基于预期市盈率，3M 股票的市盈率为16.6，接近该公司过去几年按这一估值指标交易区间的上端。这表明投资者对 3M 的这些重组努力持乐观态度。
Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, 3M shares are trading at 16.6, which is near the upper end of what the company has traded at according to this valuation metric over the past few years.
This indicates investor optimism regarding these restructuring efforts by 3M.
正如我提到的，我们已经开始看到这些重组过程带来的好处，投资者也变得更加乐观。营收增长正在加速，利润率也在改善。
As I mentioned, we are already beginning to see the benefits of these restructuring processes, and investors are becoming more optimistic. Revenue growth is accelerating, and margins are improving.
投资者对剥离表现不佳的资产表示欢迎。所有这些都有助于提振投资者对3M的信心。
Investors have welcomed the divestment from underperforming assets. All of this works to boost investor confidence in 3M.
总之，这一计算得出的3M每股公允价值估计为143美元。当前市场价格为163美元。因此，按现金流折现估值来看，该股似乎略微高估，按预期市盈率来看也略微高估。
In conclusion, this calculation resulted in a fair value estimate of $143 per share for 3M. The current market price is $163. Therefore, the stock appears to be slightly overvalued using the discounted cash flow estimate, and also slightly overvalued using the forward price-to-earnings ratio.
如果你要跟我争论，说“不，这家公司的估值看起来是合理的”，我不会反对，因为这非常接近现实。不过，如果你想回答我在标题中提出的问题：“在这些市场价格下，3M股票看起来是买入机会吗？”我会说不是，还不是。
Now, if you were to argue with me and say, "No, the company's value seems fair." I wouldn't object to that because it's very close to reality. However, if you want to answer the question I posed in the title: "Does 3M stock look like a buying opportunity at these market prices?" I would say no, not yet.
我会等待股价进一步小幅下跌，或者等待重组流程改善的更多证据，然后再急于现在买入3M股票。
I will wait for a slight further decline in the share price, or I will wait for more evidence of improved restructuring processes before I rush to buy 3M stock now.
这个频道对 $MMM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。