$MOS · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-10-27
Mosaic 非常便宜，是真正的机会：战争推高硫磺成本，使磷酸盐生产无利可图，公司每年必须从信贷额度中至少提取 5 亿美元，公司称这是暂时的。约 5 亿美元的中周期现金流仅对应 10% 的周期回报，而他想要的是 15-20%，因此若再跌约 40% 至 30-40 亿美元市值、且六个月内没有变化，才会成为真正划算的交易。他可能在 72 小时内买入，从 1-2% 起步，并在下跌中加仓；他目前没有持仓。
逐段跳播
我刚在我的研究平台上写了一篇关于“Mosaic”这家公司的更新，按照承诺，我会在这里分享给大家。看看这只股票，它几乎从很久以前就一直波动很大。我在本世纪第一个十年的中期开始关注它。
我甚至持有过它一两次，取得了还可以的结果，但并不惊艳。
I just wrote an update on my research platform about the company "Mosaic", and as promised, I will share it with you here. If we look at the stock, it has been volatile almost since time immemorial .
I started following him in the middle of the first decade of this century . I even owned it once or twice, and achieved acceptable results, but they weren't amazing.
不过，看看现在的情况，Nutrien 的持股比例更大，利润也比它更好，因为关于 Mosaic 有一些值得了解的好消息，但这只股票现在非常便宜，提供了真正的机会。
However, if you look at the situation, Nutrien has a larger stake and has made better profits than it because there are some things about Mosaic that are good to know, but the stock is now very cheap and offers real opportunities.
因为 Nutrein 是最稳定的，它在2020年到2022年间上涨了250%，而 Mosaic 上涨了600%。所以，这就是它们之间的差别。
Because Nutrein is the most stable, it rose by 250% between 2020 and 2022, while Mosaic rose by 600%. So , that's the difference between them.
看看公司的业务，Mosaic 在巴西涉及钾肥、磷肥和分销，还有一些生产活动，而情况就是很糟糕，尤其是在磷肥方面，Mosaic 需要购买氨和硫磺来生产自己的磷肥产品。
Looking at the company’s business, Mosaic is involved in potash, phosphate and distribution in Brazil with some production activities, and there is simply a bad situation, especially in phosphates, where Mosaic needs to buy ammonia and sulfur to produce its own phosphate products.
由于伊朗战争，硫磺价格暴涨，使得 Mosaic 的磷肥生产完全不赚钱。当情况变得这么糟时，CEO 说：“我们唯一能做的就是借钱活下去。”他们有25亿美元未使用的循环信贷额度。只要情况维持现状，他们每年将不得不从中提取至少5亿美元。
Sulfur prices, due to the war in Iran, have exploded, making phosphate production completely unprofitable for Mosaic . When things get this bad, the CEO says: "The only thing we can do is borrow money to survive."
They have $2.5 billion in unused revolving credit facilities. They will have to withdraw at least half a billion from it every year as long as the situation remains as it is.
但他们仍在投资，只是略微削减了资本支出。但这里的逻辑是，去年和今年由于磷肥成本高企而使用率偏低，将导致农作物减产，尤其是在巴西这样土壤较弱的地区。然后你可以看到，产量预测没有跟上需求。
因此，到了某个时候，磷肥的使用将变得必要，届时硫磺价格也可能下跌，这就是机会所在。价格已经略有上涨，但不足以证明硫磺价格上涨是合理的。
But they are still investing, and they have reduced capital spending slightly. But the plan here is that low usage rates last year and this year, due to the high cost of phosphate, will cause crop yields to suffer, especially in areas with weaker soils such as Brazil.
Then you can see that production forecasts did not keep pace with demand. Therefore, at some point the use of phosphate will be necessary, and then sulfur prices may also fall, and that is the opportunity .
Prices have risen slightly, but not enough to justify the increases in sulfur prices.
但 Mosaic 每年生产900万吨。假设“Esterhazy”有700万吨，从长期看这是一座相对较新的矿，而必和必拓花了150亿来建设这类产能。因此，从这个角度看，我们可以说“Esterhazy”值100亿，是市值减去债务后的两倍。所以，他们在那里的定价就是这样。
But Mosaic produces 9 million tons annually. Let's assume 7 million tons of " Esterhazy", which is a relatively new mine in the long term, and BHP has spent fifteen billion to build this type of production.
Therefore, from this perspective, we can say that "Esterhazy" is worth 10 billion, which is double the market value minus the debts. So, that's just what they're priced for there.
他们在重新配置资本的同时继续派发利润。当然，股息是可以削减的；如果不产生流动性，派息就没有意义，但财务经理总结了对“Mosaic”的投资。首先，我们每年烧掉5亿美元，但他们说这是暂时的、不可持续的情况，当复苏到来时，将伴随着大量被压抑的需求，会出现报复性的化肥使用，这将有利于“Mosaic”，正如我们之前在图中所看到的。
They are reallocating capital while continuing to pay out profits. Of course, dividends can be reduced ; there's no point in paying them if they don't generate liquidity, but the financial manager summarizes the investment in "Mosaic ".
First, we are burning 500 million a year, but they say this is a temporary and unsustainable situation, and when the recovery comes, it will be accompanied by a large pent-up demand, and there will be a retaliatory use of fertilizers that will benefit " Mosaic", as we saw in the graph earlier.
分析师们提出了很多问题，他们总是试图对稳定性建模，但问题不在于下个季度或这个季度会发生什么。问题是，整个行业什么时候会转变？他们知道这终将结束，但对投资者来说，问题当然是何时。
There are many questions from analysts who are always trying to model stability, but the question is not what will happen in the next quarter or this quarter. The question is, when will the entire sector change ?
They know it will end, but the question for investors is of course when.
稍微看一下财务数据，总资产为240亿，权益为116亿。有58亿的大额债务，这构成一项成本，尤其是在利率上升的情况下。
Looking at the financial data a little, total assets are 24 billion, and equity is 11.6 billion. There is a large debt of 5.8 billion, which represents a cost, especially with rising interest rates.
不过，那里也有一些价值。看看在 Ma’aden 的持股就知道了，这是一家沙特化肥公司，他们持有其股份。他们将被允许在2027年12月卖出一部分，28年12月卖出一部分，第三部分在29年12月卖出。
假设它值20亿。所以，总有一天这种价值释放会发生，这很可能导致债务减少，也可能带来股票回购，取决于情况。
However , there is some value there as well. Just look at the stake in Ma’aden, the Saudi fertilizer company in which they own a stake. They will be allowed to sell part of it in December 2027, part in December 28, and the third part in December 29.
Let’s say it is worth two billion. So, one day this release of value will occur, which will most likely lead to a reduction in debt, and possibly a share buyback, depending on the situation.
关于资本配置，再说一次，传统的华尔街在公司状况很好、股价很高的时候，花了30亿美元回购股票，而现在他们却在减少回购。愚蠢的“华尔街”，经济周期的时机搞错了，但这就是现实。
Regarding capital allocation , once again, traditional Wall Street, when things were great for the company and the stock was high, spent $3 billion on share buybacks, and now they are reducing it.
Stupid "Wall Street ," wrong timing in the economic cycle, but that's the reality.
自从我开始关注“Mosaic”以来，它一直存在问题，但这没关系。市场不喜欢这种情况，而华尔街认为2028年才复苏意味着要永远等下去，所以他们下调了该股评级，这为我们创造了机会。在情况改变之前，他们会耗尽流动性并亏损。
There have always been problems with "Mosaic" ever since I started monitoring it, but that's okay. The market doesn't like the situation, and Wall Street sees a recovery by 2028 as meaning waiting forever, so they are downgrading the stock, creating an opportunity for us.
They will drain their liquidity and lose money until the situation changes.
现在，对于周期股，你可以看周期中段的现金流，我在2024年和2025年的分析中做了这些计算。我得出每年大约5亿美元，所以我们交易的是10%的周期性回报，但当然，当情况好转，如果需求爆发，Mosaic 会赚很多钱。
Now, with cyclical stocks, you can look at the mid-cycle cash flows, and I did those calculations in my analysis for 2024 and 2025. I came up with about 500 million a year, so we are trading a cyclical return of 10%, but of course, when things get better, and if that explosion in demand happens, Mosaic will make a lot of money.
说到周期股、矿业公司和化肥，赚钱的交易平均周期中段回报率在15%到20%之间。因此，我们还需要再降40%，也就是从30亿降到40亿，也许如果未来六个月情况没有变化，我们可能面对一笔真正划算的交易。
When it comes to cyclical stocks, mining companies, and fertilizers, profitable deals are at an average mid-cycle return of between 15 and 20%. Therefore, we need an additional 40% reduction, i.e., from 3 to 4 billion, and perhaps if the situation does not change in the next six months, we may be facing a truly winning deal.
现在，我已经把这只股票加入我在研究平台上覆盖的股票名单。每到月底，我都会看看是否把它纳入多元化投资组合，也许采用从1-2%起步的策略。如果价格进一步下跌，我就增加投资，如果再跌，我就再加。
当复苏发生时，我们会随时间跟踪情况。因此，我可能会在未来72小时内买入这只股票。
Now, I have added this stock to the list of stocks I cover on my research platform. At the end of the month, I always look at whether I will include it in a diversified portfolio, perhaps with a strategy that starts at 1-2%.
If the price falls further, I increase the investment, and if it falls further, I increase it again. When a recovery occurs, we monitor the situation over time. Therefore, I might buy this stock within the next 72 hours.
我想透明地说明，我目前并不持有它。
I would like to state transparently that I do not currently own it .