MRVL 上调了长期营收和每股收益指引；按标准估值倍数计算，2030 年每股收益达 30 美元意味着股价有望达到 600 美元。
逐段跳播
首先是 Marvell Technology。他们今天举行了自己的投资者日，这展示了 AI 半导体领域有多么疯狂和先进。
First, Marvell Technology. They held their own Investor Day today, which demonstrated just how crazy and advanced the field of AI semiconductors is.
现在，正如我今天提到的，我认为 Marvell 是市场感到如此乐观的主要原因之一。Marvell，正如我们将看到的，举行了自己的投资者日，谈了很多不同的产品，我们会把深入分析留到后面。
但在总体层面上，他们提高了对未来几年可预见时期的预期。预期每年都大幅提高。他们甚至给出了 2030 日历年每股 30 美元的盈利，简单算一下，对吧？基于远期市盈率的 30x30 比率，使 Marvell 的潜在未来股价达到 600 美元，至少在我看来是这样。
Now, as I mentioned today, I believe Marvell was one of the main reasons why the market was feeling so optimistic. Marvell, as we shall see, held its own Investor Day and talked a lot about all the different products, and we will reserve our in- depth analysis for later.
But on a general level, they have raised expectations for the foreseeable future for the next few years. Expectations have increased significantly each year. They even gave us $30 per share earnings for the calendar year 2030, and with a simple calculation, right ?
A 30x30 ratio based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio puts Marvell at a potential future share price of $600, at least in my opinion.
我相信这就是为什么市场喜欢看到 Marvell 在定制半导体领域增加收入。
I believe this is why the market liked seeing Marvell increase its revenue in the area of custom semiconductors.
敬请期待对 Marvell 的深入分析。所以，是的，如果我们看看 Marvell 这个市场，对吧？但市场说，如果这对 Marvell 来说真的那么好，不是吗？它在 AI 数据中心里连第三名都算不上，可能连第四、第五名都不是，那么对 Broadcom、Micron、Nvidia、AMD、Credo 和 Astera Labs 这些公司来说，又能有多好呢？
如果一家公司不是第一名却仍然大幅受益，那么排名第一、第二和第三的公司又会得到什么？所以，再一次，这就是这里普遍存在的乐观情绪。
Expect an in- depth analysis of Marvel. So, yes, if we look at this Marvel market, right ? But the market says if it's really that good for Marvel, isn't it? It's not even the third player, and probably not the fourth or fifth in AI data centers , so how good is it for companies like Broadcom, Micron, Nvidia, AMD, Credo, and Astera Labs?
If a company is not in first place and is still benefiting greatly, what will companies in first, second and third place get? So , once again, that's the prevailing positive feeling here.
现在，Marvell 在今天的投资者日上将其 2028 财年的收入预期提高到约 200 亿美元。这比他们的利润有所增加，不到两个月前，这一数字为 180 亿美元。所以，这大约是 20 亿美元的增长。
这已经比上一季度此前的预期有所提高，当时是 16.5。所以，对同一个财年连续两次提高预期，说明这个市场有多疯狂，不是吗？所以，市场仍然非常兴奋。
Now, Marvel has raised its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2028 to around $20 billion on Investor Day today. This was an increase from their profits, which less than two months ago, amounted to $18 billion.
So, that's growth of about $2 billion . That was already an increase over previous expectations in the previous quarter, which was 16.5 . So, raising expectations twice in a row for the same fiscal year shows you how crazy this market is, doesn't it? So, the market is still very excited.
管理层表示，最新的 20 亿美元增长来自水平扩展光学、垂直扩展光学和交换。同样的沟通活动也是 8 月那次增长背后的原因。因此，现在可能有两次大幅增长来自网络方面。
The administration says the latest $2 billion increase comes from horizontal expansion optics , vertical expansion optics , and switching. This same communication activity was also behind the increase in August.
Therefore, two major increases could now come from the network side.
但在这个频道里，已经建立起交易所交易基金（ETF）思路的三家公司是 Marvell、Credo 和 Astera Labs。我非常高兴看到这一论点在实践中得到落实。
But in this channel, the three companies that have established an exchange-traded fund (ETF) approach are Marvell, Credo , and Astera Labs. I am very happy to see this thesis being implemented in practice .
他们接着谈到，现在预计 2028 财年数据中心收入约为 180 亿美元，达到了他们此前为 2029 财年设定的目标。所以，其中一些数字提前了一年。
They then go on to talk about now expecting around $18 billion in data center revenue in fiscal year 2028, meeting the target they previously set for fiscal year 2029. So, there is a one-year lead in some of those numbers.
现在，定制芯片也在增长。2029 财年的目标现在超过 120 亿美元，而 8 月确认的目标是 100 亿美元。因此，他们看到越来越多的热情。
Now, custom chips are also seeing an increase . The fiscal year 2029 target is now more than $12 billion, compared to the $10 billion target confirmed in August. Therefore, they are seeing more and more enthusiasm.
现在，同样很棒的是，他们提出了 2031 财年的模型，该模型要求总收入在 700 亿至 900 亿美元之间，并表明在收入中点的非 GAAP 每股收益超过 30 美元。所以，在收入中点 800 亿美元时，他们预计每股收益超过 30 美元。如果他们接近 900 亿美元，会发生什么？
Now, it was also great that they presented a model for fiscal year 2031, which requires between $70 and $90 billion in total revenue, and indicates earnings per share of more than $30 non-GAAP at the midpoint of revenue.
So, at the midpoint of revenues, $80 billion , they expect earnings per share exceeding $30. What will happen if they get close to $90 billion?
更令人兴奋的是，他们提到这 700 亿至 900 亿美元不需要在任何市场上建立新的、疯狂的合作关系，对吧？他们确实列出了未来某些合作关系和某些类型的广告收入，但实现这种收入数字并不需要非凡的解决方案或合作关系。
对我来说，这意味着管理层非常保守，如果一切按计划进行，实际数字会高得多，对吧？
What was even more exciting about this was their mention that this sum of $70 to $90 billion does not require a new and crazy partnership in any of the markets, does it ? They do list certain partnerships and certain types of advertising coming in the future, but no extraordinary solution or partnership is needed to achieve this type of revenue figure.
To me, this means that management is being very conservative, and the actual figure will be much higher if things go as planned, right?
所以，再说一次，我不是说 Marvell 股价会达到 600 美元，但如果一切按照这些以及典型的半导体估值继续如预期发展，34 倍的市盈率并非不可能。如果真是这样，那么 600 美元的股价也不是不可能。
So, again, I'm not saying Marvell stock will hit $600, but if everything continues as expected based on these and typical semiconductor valuations, a P/E ratio of 34 is not impossible.
If that is true, then a share price of $600 would not be out of the question either.
所以，总体而言，我们从 Lisa Su 那里听到的没有变化，只是我们今天在 2026 年 10 月从市场上得到了进一步的确认，即 Marvell 和 AMD 仍然相信市场将在半导体领域看到持续数年的大繁荣。
So, overall, what we hear from Lisa Su hasn't changed, except that we just got further confirmation from the market today in October 2026 that Marvell and AMD still believe the market will see a major boom for several years in the semiconductor field.
观察点
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。