MRVL 具备颇具吸引力的风险回报比；基于管理层给出的可信指引——到 2030 年实现年增长超过 50%——将目标价上调至 360 美元。
逐段跳播
看一下这张展示 Marvell 过去一年股价表现的图表。今天我们正在失去一些动能，但昨天我们曾大幅上涨，这要归功于投资者日上给出的积极指引。
take a look at the chart showing Marvell's stock performance over the past year. We are losing some momentum today, but we were on a big rise yesterday thanks to the positive guidance on Investor Day.
它曾是标普500指数中表现最好的股票之一，但我们已经从夏季的高位回落。正如你所看到的，目前我们正在重新攀升。我们已将该股的评级从之前的300美元上调至360美元，我们仍然认为，在当前这些价位上，对投资者而言风险与回报之间存在有吸引力的权衡，尤其是正如我提到的，今早出现了小幅回落。
It was among the best performers in the S& P 500 index, but we have fallen back from the high levels of the summer . We are climbing again at the moment, as you can see. We have raised our rating on the stock to $360 from $300 previously, and we still believe there is an attractive trade-off between risk and return for investors at these levels, especially with the slight dip this morning as I mentioned.
但真正的消息在这些指引之中。我们此前一直预期 Marvell 在未来三到五年会实现巨大增长，但简单来说，管理层昨天公布的指引超出了我们所有的预测。
But the real news was in these directives. We had been expecting tremendous growth over the next three to five years for Marvell , but simply put, the guidance revealed by management yesterday exceeded all our projections .
我们认为有必要指出，我们认为管理层的目标高度可信。这是连续多年中的最新一次——管理层设定的目标起初看起来过于乐观，随后却都实现了，从而造就了我刚刚展示的那张令人印象深刻的股价表现图表。
We believe it is important to note that we view the management's objectives as highly credible. This is the latest in a series of years in which management set goals that initially seemed overly optimistic and then achieved them, resulting in that impressive chart of stock performance that I just showed.
就这只股票为投资者提供的回报而言，我注意到的一点是它所提供的可见度水平。我的意思是，这就是这只股票的故事吗？他们能够在一个传统上被视为周期性的领域里展望遥远的未来，以至于他们挑战了针对这样一家公司的这类传统理论。
One thing I've noticed with this stock in terms of the reward it offers investors is the level of visibility it provides. I mean, is this the story of this stock? Their ability to look to the distant future in a field that was traditionally considered cyclical is such that they challenge this kind of conventional theory for a company like this.
我们认为，在人工智能时代，这是一次根本性的转变。在这个时代，我们看到供应链各个环节的客户都在通过多年期的支出承诺来应对供应约束和巨大需求，以设法锁定交易和供应。因此，我们并不一定认为这是 Marvell 独有的动态，而更多是人工智能基础设施中需求规模之大和供应链之紧的一个指标。
Well, we believe it is a fundamental shift in this age of artificial intelligence, where we see customers at all stages of the supply chain responding to supply constraints and huge demand through multi-year spending commitments to try to secure deals and supplies.
Therefore, we do not necessarily believe that this is a dynamic specific to Marvell alone, but rather an indicator of the size of the demand and the tightness of the supply chain in the artificial intelligence infrastructure .
没错。为什么这对 Marvell 重要？我的意思是，这对整个人工智能行业意味着什么？因为像昨天这样的日子里，看到这只股票获得额外提振，而半导体板块整体却落后于整个科技板块，这很有意思。
correct. Why does this matter to Marvel? I mean, what does this mean for the artificial intelligence industry as a whole? Because it was interesting on a day like yesterday to see the stock receive a bonus, while semiconductors as a whole lagged behind the entire technology sector.
所以，他们有很多他们所称的多用途目标，这些目标确实横跨我们所说的计算和连接两大领域。如今，光学已成为今年市场上非常流行的趋势。Marvell 是光学领域的领导者。它本质上制造的是将光信号转换为电信号的处理芯片。
这在人工智能网络中极为重要，因为它实际上决定了图形处理器在人工智能数据中心中如何相互通信。
So, they have a lot of multi-purpose goals, as they call them, and they really span across what we call computing and connectivity. Now, optics has become a very popular trend in the market this year.
Marvell is a leader in the field of optics. It essentially manufactures processing chips that convert light signals into electrical signals. This is of great importance in artificial intelligence networks, as it effectively determines how graphics processing units communicate with each other in AI data centers .
但 Marvell 也积极投身于制造定制人工智能处理器，我们称之为“XPU”。它是 Broadcom 的竞争对手，也是 MediaTek 等公司以及许多其他网络和通信技术的竞争对手，这就是我们所说的那个领域。
But Marvell is also active in creating custom AI processors, which we call "XPUs". It is a competitor to Broadcom , and to companies like MediaTek, and many other networking and communication technologies, which is what we call that.
因此，该公司在人工智能基础设施内涉足的领域非常多。它在数据中心领域有很强的存在，而我们真正看到的是，它在所有这些增长领域都在满负荷运转，但我认为最大的两个领域是计算和光学连接。
Thus, there are a large number of areas in which the company is involved within the artificial intelligence infrastructure . It is strongly present in data centers, and what we are really seeing is that it is operating at full capacity in all these growing areas, but I consider the two biggest areas to be computing and optical connectivity.
好的，是的。我的意思是，它显然也更加多元化。但我的意思是，自年初以来上涨超过200%，我明白你关于支出的说法，但这些股票的预期是不是还在进一步升高？是不是变得越来越难了？
Okay, yes. I mean, it's obviously more diverse too. But I mean, up more than 200 % since the beginning of the year, I understand what you're saying about spending, but are expectations rising even higher for these stocks? Is it getting more difficult?
我认为是这样，但当你看看他们所承诺的增长率时，它们甚至超过了一个非常高的上限。我的意思是，我们看到的未来五年年增长率高于50%，接近60%的年增长率。我们说的是从去年的80亿美元销售额，到2030年平均800亿美元的销售额。
这是5年内10倍的增长。因此，我同意你的看法，对于这些股票来说，预期过高，无法支撑这样的估值。然而，当你看看 Marvell 提供的指引时，我认为如果他们实现了这些目标，他们将远远超过这一水平。
I think so, but when you look at the growth rates they are promising , they are even exceeding a very high ceiling . I mean, we are looking at annual growth over the next five years that is above 50% and close to 60% as annual growth.
We are talking about going from sales of $8 billion last year to an average of $80 billion in sales in 2030. That's a 10-fold increase over 5 years. Therefore, I agree with you that expectations are too high for these stocks to justify these valuations.
However, when you look at the guidelines that Marvel has provided, I think if they achieve that, they will far surpass this level.
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。