$MRVL · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-30
MRVL 于 2026 年 10 月 28 日被上调至买入：他上调后的 DCF 估值为 248 美元，接近 249 美元的股价，且较 9 月更便宜——此前股价从 300 美元以上回落；不过 34 倍的远期市盈率已接近其最贵水平。AI 需求与 GPU 互联份额支撑 56% 的 EPS 增长，但自 2018 年以来，现金流对销售额的比率一直停滞在 23%。
逐段跳播
Marvel 的管理团队向投资者描绘了乐观的未来前景。管理团队表示，他们预计到2031财年将实现高达800亿美元的收入，平均营业利润率达到45%。
Marvel's management team presented investors with an optimistic outlook for the future. The management team stated that they expect to generate revenues of up to $80 billion by fiscal year 2031, with an average operating profit margin of 45%.
如果我们假设到2030年整体市场机会将达到4000亿美元，那么这些目标既令人印象深刻，也是合理的。因此，在800亿美元的水平上，Marvel 将占据整个可服务市场约四分之一或五分之一。
These targets are impressive and reasonable if we assume that the total market opportunity will reach $400 billion by 2030. So, at the $80 billion level, Marvel will capture about a quarter or a fifth of the total addressable market.
人工智能的兴起正推动对 Marvel 产品和服务的需求增加，公司正经历显著的业务增长。但投资者在问我：“按当前市场价格，这是否让 Marvel 股票现在成为一个买入机会？”所以我想把这些更新后的预测与公司的长期表现结合起来，看看它的估值，以判断它现在是否真的是一个买入机会。
The rise of artificial intelligence is driving increased demand for Marvel products and services, and the company is experiencing significant business growth. But investors are asking me: "Does this make Marvel stock a buying opportunity now at current market prices?"
So I wanted to take these updated forecasts, combine them with the company’s long-term performance, and take a look at its valuation, to determine if it was a genuine buying opportunity right now.
Marvel 今年开局非常强劲，股价一度升至300美元以上。此后，在2026年初的强劲表现之后，股价趋于稳定并回落至每股约249美元。
Marvel started the year very strongly, with its stock price rising to over $300. Since then, the stock has stabilized and fallen to around $249 per share after its early success in 2026.
总体来看，该股已上涨超过193%，成为今年表现最成功的半导体股票之一。跟踪 Marvel 的分析师预计这种好时光将持续下去。如果你看看跟踪 Marvel 的分析师给出的长期每股收益增长预测，你会发现它们比很长一段时间以来的水平都要高。
Overall, the stock has risen by more than 193 %, making it one of the most successful semiconductor stocks this year. Analysts who follow Marvel expect these good times to continue .
If you look at the long- term earnings per share growth forecasts provided by analysts who follow Marvel, you will find that they are higher than they have been for a long time.
分析师预测 Marvel 未来几年的每股收益将增长56%。这与管理层设定的预期一致。销售正在蓬勃发展，订单积压不断增加，公司通过支持图形处理器（GPU）及其他组件的连接，帮助人工智能公司建设数据中心，同时也在特种芯片制造方面获得业务。
Analysts predict a 56% growth in earnings per share for Marvel over the next few years . This is in line with the expectations set by management. Sales are booming, the backlog of orders is growing, and the company is helping AI companies build data centers by supporting the connectivity of graphics processing units (GPUs) and other components, and is also gaining business in the manufacture of special chips.
公司还通过帮助连接这些数据中心中的众多组件来获得额外业务。
The company also gains additional business by helping to connect the many components that go into these data centers.
因此，Marvel 表示，无论这些数据中心选择 AMD、Nvidia 还是它自己的芯片，它都将是赢家；这些芯片都需要连接，而 Marvel 在争取这部分市场份额方面做得非常出色。
Therefore, Marvel says it will be the winner regardless of whether companies choose AMD, Nvidia, or its own chips for these data centers; These chips need connectivity, and Marvel is doing an excellent job of gaining that market share.
在 Marvel 让我印象深刻的指标之一，是人均收入的增长。他们在员工人数没有显著增加的情况下，实现了巨大的收入增长。
One of the metrics that impressed me at Marvel is the growth in revenue per employee. They have managed to achieve tremendous revenue growth without a significant increase in the number of employees.
其人均收入已从2017年的约40万美元增长到过去12个月的116万美元。我很希望看到这样的发展。这向我表明，公司在控制成本的同时拥有提升销售的巨大潜力，从而能够提高盈利能力。
Its revenue per employee has increased from approximately $400,000 in 2017 to $1.16 million over the past 12 months. I would love to see this kind of development. It shows me that the company has great potential to increase sales while controlling costs, and thus increase profitability.
公司经营活动现金流与销售额的比率强劲且稳定。它不算出色，也没有显示出任何改善。所以，这些是我的一些担忧。
The company's cash flow from operations to sales ratio is strong and stable. It's not great, and it's not showing any improvement. So, these are a few concerns.
我希望看到这一指标有所改善，尤其是与其他更好地利用人工智能热潮的半导体公司相比。它们的利润率和经营活动现金流与销售额的比率正在改善，或者处于高得多的水平。
I would like to see this metric improve, especially when compared to other semiconductor companies that are better leveraging the AI boom. Its profit margins and cash flows from operations compared to sales are improving or at much higher levels.
23%是可以接受的，不算差，但自2018年以来一直停留在这个水平。所以，过去几年我们在这一方面没有看到业务的实质性改善。
At 23%, it's acceptable, not bad, but it has remained at this level since 2018. So, we haven't seen a substantial improvement in business in this regard over the past several years.
从估值看，先看远期市盈率，该股目前的远期市盈率为34，接近今年以来的最高水平。今年早些时候，它一度以约10倍的远期市盈率交易。那时我将 Marvel 股票评为买入机会，随后在股价升至约300美元后，我下调了该股的评级。
Looking at the valuation starting with the forward price-to-earnings ratio, the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 34, which is close to its highest level this year. At one point, it was trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 10 earlier this year.
That was when I rated Marvel stock as a buy opportunity, then I downgraded the stock after it rose to around $300.
估值已升至34以上，接近最贵的区间，不仅对2026年而言如此，回顾整个2024年，它也处于该股交易过的最贵一侧。
The valuation has grown to over 34, which is close to the most expensive end, not only for 2026, but also if we look back throughout 2024, it is on the most expensive side where the stock has traded.
因此，今天我更新了对Marvel的折现现金流评估，并上调了我的估值。这就是我在Marvel上遵循的方向。看起来每过3个月，当我回头审视这家公司并评估其前景时，我都低估了它产生自由现金流的能力。
所以，每3个月它的表现都比我预期的更好。这种情况到现在大概已经持续9个月了。
Therefore, today I also updated my discounted cash flow assessment for Marvel and raised my estimates. This is the direction I followed with Marvel. It seems that every 3 months, when I go back to review the company and assess its prospects, I have underestimated its ability to generate free cash flow.
So, every 3 months they perform better than I expected. This has probably been the case for 9 months now .
经过我的评估，我现在对这家公司的估值为248美元，接近249美元的市场价格。我认为，用我的折现现金流模型来衡量，它的估值是合理的。
After my reviews, I now value the company at $248, which is close to the market price of $249. I believe it is fairly valued when measured using my discounted cash flow model.
我提到过，在今年早些时候股价大涨之后，我把这只股票的评级下调到了“持有”。但今天，估值看起来比我9月份评估这家公司时更有吸引力得多。因此，今天我将Marvel Technology的股票评级上调至“买入”，我在2026年10月27日更新这一评级。我应该说，是2026年10月28日。
I mentioned that I lowered the stock's rating to "hold" after the stock price surged earlier this year. But today, the valuation looks much more attractive than it did in September when I evaluated the company.
Therefore, today I am upgrading Marvel Technology stock to " buy" and I am updating this rating on October 27, 2026. I should say October 28, 2026 .
观察点
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。