MSFT 是一个长期看好的机会，受需求加速和 Azure 动能驱动，但当前估值处于中性水平。
逐段跳播
是的，Microsoft 是我们一段时间以来一直看好的股票。这只股票终于开始与我们的预期趋于一致。事实上，当我们观察 Microsoft 的整体需求时，我们发现它同比增长了约 11%。
这是一家极其庞大的公司。因此，由于我们分析的数据量巨大，我们不会在这个年度百分比上看到巨大的波动。但我想指出，与上一季度相比，这代表着一次加速。上一季度，这一百分比同比增长约 7%。
Yes, Microsoft is a stock we've been optimistic about for some time now. Finally, the stock started to align with our expectations. In fact, when we look at overall demand for Microsoft, we find that it has increased by about 11% year-on-year.
This is an extremely large company. Therefore, we do not see huge movements in this annual percentage due to the large volume of data we analyze. But I would like to point out that this represents an acceleration compared to the last quarter.
In the last quarter, this percentage was up by about 7% year-on-year.
根据我们的数据，当我们观察所掌握的信号和洞察时，我们看到人工智能得到了强劲的采用。因此，这些推动因素似乎正在加速，云领域也是如此。
Based on our data, and when we look at the signals and insights we have, we see a strong adoption of artificial intelligence. Therefore, those contributing factors appear to be accelerating, as well as in the cloud sector.
当我们把 Microsoft 的表现与云领域的同行进行比较时，我们看到“Azure”具有明显的优势和强劲的势头，而且我们知道，这是一个我们将在下一季度获得特别洞察的领域。
When we look at Microsoft's performance compared to its peers in the cloud field, we see good superiority and strong momentum in "Azure", and we know that this is an area where we will get special insights in the next quarter.
总体而言，我们看到 Microsoft 持续存在积极的驱动因素，支撑了我们所看到的上涨。我认为该股在过去三个月里上涨了约 32%。这与我们的数据一致，我们相信这一趋势将会延续。
Overall, we see continued positive drivers for Microsoft, which support the rise we have seen. I believe the stock has risen by about 32% over the past three months. This is consistent with our data, and we believe this trend will continue.
我认为该公司将在本月底公布财报。从现在到那时，我们会看看交易情况如何，但目前我们看到了强劲的指标。这是否可能是因为，所有使用“Copilot”的这些公司在上一季度相比前一季度增加了 1000 万个席位，这意味着它们在人工智能领域正在获得一些势头？
I think the company will announce its earnings at the end of the month. We'll see how trading goes from now until then, but currently we are seeing strong indicators. Is this perhaps based on the fact that all these companies using "Copilot" have added 10 million seats in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter, which means they are gaining some momentum there in the field of artificial intelligence?
你的数据是否反映出，使用 Microsoft 企业系统的其他公司发现更容易切换到 Azure Cloud，因为许多 Microsoft 系统已经集成到它们的软件和技术中？这或许就是原因吗？
Does your data reflect perhaps that other companies using Microsoft enterprise systems find it easier to switch to Azure Cloud because many Microsoft systems are already integrated into their software and technologies? Is this perhaps the reason?
是的，这正是我们所观察到的。我们在这些企业类别中看到了大量更新，我认为这对 Microsoft 未来的定价能力确实非常重要。
Yes, that is exactly what we are observing. We are seeing a lot of updates within those enterprise categories, and I think this is really important for Microsoft's pricing power going forward.
有些公司为添加“Copilot”支付更高的金额。我认为，一旦添加“Copilot”，该类别的定价要高出 65%，而当你开始使用它时，除了席位本身的成本之外，最终还要为消耗付费。
因此，这个领域存在扩张，这直接使“Azur”受益。所以我们在这个领域看到了良好的势头。
You have companies that pay higher amounts for adding "Copilot". I think that the pricing for that category is 65% higher once you add the "Copilot", and when you start using it, you end up paying for consumption in addition to the cost of the seat itself.
Therefore, there is an expansion in this area, which directly benefits "Azur". So we see good momentum in this area.
所以，当我们观察这一点时，我们看到水涨船高，但就本季度相比上一季度的增长率而言，我们注意到“Azur”有良好的改善。这在很大程度上归因于它的开发方式、机构对它的采用增加，以及它们涌入其自身的生态系统。
So when we look at this, we see that the high tide lifts all the boats, but in terms of the growth rate this quarter compared to the previous quarter, we note a good improvement for "Azur".
Much of this is due to the way it was developed, the increased adoption of it by institutions, and their influx into its own ecosystem.
我必须说，我对 Azure、AWS 和 Google Cloud 之间的差距之大感到惊讶。我想知道 Azure 是否正在从 Google Cloud 手中夺取一些市场份额。
I must say I am surprised by the size of the difference between Azure, AWS and Google Cloud. I wonder if Azure is taking some of the market share from Google Cloud.
这可能是事实。这确实是我们的数据目前所呈现的趋势。但我认为总体而言，这对所有公司来说仍是一个增长的领域，而 Google Cloud 的关注度可能会看到其增长率相比上一季度放缓。
That may be the case. This is certainly the direction our data is currently trending towards. But I think overall this is still an area of growth for all companies, and that Google Cloud’s interest may see a slowdown in its growth rate compared to the last quarter.
这就是我们对这些数据的解读，而你在“Azure”中看到的巨大跃升，或许更可能是一次意外的跃升。在过去几个季度里，我们甚至在 Azure 的增长率中也看到了这一点。我认为上一季度的营收同比增长约 43%，而且这是在前几个季度基础上的连续增长。
因此，我们在这里继续看到这种加速，而在 Google Cloud 中我们未必看到这种加速。
This is how we interpret this data, and the huge leap you see in "Azure" is perhaps more likely to be an unexpected leap. We have seen this in Azure's growth rate even during the past few quarters.
I believe that revenue growth in the last quarter was about 43% higher year-on-year, and that was a consecutive increase over previous quarters. So we continue to see this acceleration here, while we don't necessarily see this acceleration in Google Cloud.
因此，我认为重要的是要指出，我们目前在 Microsoft 观察到一次显著的升级，而我们在所追踪的其他公司中未必看到这一点。
Therefore, I think it's important to note that there's a significant escalation we're currently observing at Microsoft that we haven't necessarily seen at the other companies we track.
Megan，就你的一张图表快速追问一个问题，其中需求同比增长 11%，但股价却落后于你的数据。这是从 6 月那些低位跃升了 47%。我的意思是，这只股票已经跌破 350 美元。你仍然看好它吗？
Megan, a quick follow-up question regarding one of your charts where demand is up 11% year-over-year, but the stock price is lagging behind your data. This is a 47% jump from those low levels in June.
I mean, this stock has dropped below $350. Are you still positive about it?
我们将在 28 日财报公布时获得一些明确信息，但你仍然对它持乐观态度吗？是的。我们有几个不同的评级可以参考。当我们长期观察一家公司时，我们有一个约 84 的整体指数，对我们来说这是乐观的指标。
所以，我们长期看好这家公司，但如果你看看我今天准备的盈利估值，它是 11，完全中性。因此，我们认为该股和需求目前是齐头并进的。
We will get some clarity on the 28th when the earnings are announced, but are you still optimistic about it? Yes. We have a few different ratings we can look at. When we look at a company in the long term, we have an overall index of around 84, which for us is an indicator of optimism.
So, we are optimistic about this company in the long term, but if you look at the earnings valuation I prepared today, it was at 11, which is completely neutral. Therefore, we believe that stock and demand are currently going hand in hand.
当我们观察我们所谓的主流需求，即消费者需求与投资者需求时，差距非常小。据我们所知，Main Street 优于 Wall Street 的地方大约只有六个点。所以，对我们来说，这似乎是一只定价合理的股票。
When we look at what we call mainstream demand, i.e., consumer demand versus investor demand, the gap is very small. I think there are only about six points where Main Street is superior to Wall Street, as far as we can tell.
So, to us, this seems like a reasonably priced stock.
在财报公布前，看看它在下个月如何交易将会很有意思。但我要说，从长远来看，即使在这些水平上，我们也认为这是一个乐观的机会，因为我们仍处于 Microsoft 向企业推出其 AI 工具套件的非常早期阶段。
It will be interesting to see how it trades over the next month ahead of the earnings announcement. But I would say that in the long run we believe this is an optimistic opportunity even at these levels, because we are still in the very early stages of Microsoft rolling out its suite of AI tools for enterprises.
我认为，在我深入研究这件事的过程中，真正让我感到意外的一点是，Copilot 的采用率目前仍仅占其全部商业客户群的 6.5%。所以这里仍有充足的空间，至少从我们正在监测的消费者这一侧来看是如此。
I think one of the things that really surprised me as I delved into this research is that Copilot's adoption rate is still only at 6.5% of its total commercial customer base. So there is still plenty of room here, at least from the consumer side that we are monitoring.
所以，从长期来看我们当然持乐观态度，但随着财报公布日益临近，出现意外的空间正在收窄。所以，严格来说，目前我们处在中性到谨慎乐观之间的某个位置，接下来到那时会发生什么，我们拭目以待。
So, we are certainly optimistic in the long term, but as we get closer to the earnings announcement, that gap for surprises is shrinking. So, technically speaking, at the moment we are somewhere between neutrality and cautious optimism and we will see how things turn out between now and then.
观察点
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 9 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。