MSFT 估值偏低，内在价值为 570，但在经历一轮上涨趋势后他不会现在买入；他更倾向于在接近支撑位的回调时加仓。在大型云公司中，他认为 MSFT 目前因 Muse 智能体和新的领先 AI 模型而最有可能上涨。
逐段跳播
我股票的第二类是超大规模云服务商。超大规模云服务商是 Google、Microsoft、Amazon 和 Meta。现在，如果你看这些公司，它们的一部分业务专注于 AI 资本支出和建设数据中心，对吧？
但并非全部。它们另一部分业务通过其他方式赚钱。对 Meta 和 Google 来说，它们靠广告赚钱。当然，现在 Meta 正在进军消费者 AI 智能体，以及像 Meta Glasses 这样的设备，明白吗？
还有 Amazon，它靠广告、电子商务和物流赚钱。所以，大公司有很多很多收入来源。那么，当 AI 资本支出增长放缓时，哪些板块会受到最大冲击？最大的冲击会在这里，对吧？一旦 AI 热潮放缓，所有这些都会受到更大的冲击，明白吗？
那么，那部分会受到怎样的影响？嗯，它们的一部分业务可能会受影响，但另一部分可能会表现非常好，因为当人们开始想：“好吧，如果它们在资本支出上花得更少，如果 Microsoft、Meta 和 Amazon 花得更少，那么它们的利润就会回升。”
所以，它们实际上可能表现非常好。如果 AI 资本支出增长放缓，它们可能表现非常好。也可能不会，明白吗？所以这有点像是五五开的情况，因为它们一只脚在 AI 里，一只脚在 AI 支出之外，明白吗？
The second category of my stocks is the hyperscalers . Hyperscalers are Google, Microsoft, Amazon , and Meta. Now, if you look at these companies, part of their business is focused on AI capital expenditure and building data centers , right?
But not all of it. Another part of their business is making money in other ways. For Meta and Google, they make money from Advertising. And of course, now Meta is moving into consumer AI agents , and into devices like Meta Glasses, okay?
You have Amazon, which makes money from advertising, e-commerce, and logistics. So, large companies have many, many revenue streams. So, when AI capital expenditure growth slows , which sectors will take the biggest hit?
The biggest hit will be here, right? All of these will take a bigger hit once the AI hype slows, okay? Now, how will that part be affected? Well, part of their business might be affected, but another part might do very well , because when people start thinking, "Well, if they're spending less on capital expenditure, if Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are spending less, then their profits will go back up."
So, they could actually do very well . They could do very well if AI capital expenditure growth slows . Or they might not, okay? So, this is a bit of a 50/50 situation because they have one foot in AI and one foot out of AI spending, okay?
给你大致看一下我的持仓组合，就像我说的，我赚得最多的几只股票是 Fortnite。你可以看到上面 Fortnite 涨了212%。我持有 Palo Alto，涨了148%，CrowdStrike 涨了217%，当然，那些大公司也贡献得不错。
Amazon 涨了119%，Alphabet（Google）涨了221%，Nvidia 涨了209%，MetaTrader 涨了114%，Microsoft 涨了67%，还有一些我持有的其他抗泡沫股票，比如医疗保健板块的 United Health，涨了26%，之前还更高，但后来小幅回落。
我可能会加仓 UnitedHealth，HCA Healthcare 涨了32%，GlobalX Defense 涨了17%，
To give you a glimpse of the portfolio, like I said, my biggest winners are Fortnite. You can see Fortnite up there, 212%. I have Palo Alto up 148%, CrowdStrike up 217%, and of course, the big companies are contributing well.
Amazon up 119%, Alphabet ( Google) up 221%, Nvidia up 209%, MetaTrader up 114%, Microsoft up 67%, and some of my other anti-bubble stocks like healthcare, United Health, up 26%, was even higher but has since dipped slightly.
I could add more to UnitedHealth, HCA Healthcare up 32%, and GlobalX Defense up 17%,
如果你看 Microsoft，Microsoft 现在处于什么位置？Microsoft 被低估了，不是吗？内在价值是570。它被低估了，但我会现在买入吗？不会。为什么？因为，再一次，我从不在上涨趋势之后买入。
我总是在下跌浪之后买入，因为上涨浪之后是下跌浪，然后是上涨浪，然后是下跌浪。正如你在这里看到的，先是一波上涨，然后下跌，然后上涨，然后下跌，然后朝着内在价值上涨。它仍然被低估，但我通常更倾向于在回调接近支撑位时加仓。
If you look at Microsoft, where does Microsoft stand now? Microsoft is undervalued, isn't it? The intrinsic value is 570. It is undervalued, but would I buy now? no. Why? Because, once again, I never buy after an upward trend.
I always buy after a downward wave, because after an upward wave comes a downward wave, then an upward wave, then a downward wave. As you can see here, you have a wave of upward movement, then downward movement, then upward movement , then downward movement, then upward movement towards the intrinsic value.
It is still undervalued, but I usually prefer to add in when there is a pullback near the support level.
但另一方面，在面向消费者的 AI 智能体这个领域，这些股票可能会受到正面影响。比如，你自己的智能体平台和模型。Meta、Microsoft 和 Alphabet。
But on the other hand, these are the stocks that could be positively impacted in the world of consumer-oriented AI agents. For example, your own agent platforms and models. Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
第二个篮子将是我提到的大型云计算公司，Microsoft、Google 和 Meta，我认为它们目前上涨的机会最大，因为它们的 Muse 智能体以及几款新的领先 AI 模型的发布。
The second basket will be the big cloud computing companies I mentioned, Microsoft, Google and Meta, which I think have the biggest chance of rising right now because of their Muse agent and the launch of several of their new leading AI models.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Adam Khoo 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。