MSFT 看跌：预计大盘将出现抛售，而 MSFT 应会领跌，因此其回调反映的是大盘而非微软自身；时点不确定，大约 60 天多一点。在重新测试 $540-$550 后处于阻力位，未来几周可能下跌，不过 MACD 呈看涨。
逐段跳播
这里我们看到的是 Microsoft 的股票，而 Microsoft 的财报比另外两只股票要近得多。它们的财报在月底，也就是28号。目前它们在5月7日的排名中处于中间位置。我认为它们正好在中间。但你现在会怎么操作 Microsoft？
Here we have Microsoft stock, and Microsoft's earnings are much closer than the other two stocks . They are at the end of the month, on the twenty- eighth of it. They are currently in the middle of the rankings for May 7.
I think they are exactly in the middle . But how do you deal with Microsoft now?
是的，还是那句话，正如你刚才提到的，这对 Microsoft 来说是一笔看跌的交易。你看，就 Microsoft 目前的情况而言，我认为我们可以提出很多技术面的理由来解释他们为什么买入。
你看，可供投资的替代选择并不多。我的意思是，你知道，重新开始买 Walmart 是不好的。我不认为这一定是个积极信号。我也不认为我们买入 Microsoft 是个积极信号。几周前我不是还听说软件行业已经彻底完了吗？
当然，你接着会辩称 Azure 会拯救 Microsoft。你看，这也不是那也不是。我对 Microsoft 持这种立场的背后原因，是我相信我们即将目睹市场出现大范围的抛售活动。
因此，最近这笔交易、Microsoft 股价的这一下跌走势，并不只是关乎 Microsoft 一家；它关乎整个市场。我们每天都目睹这些波动。看看今天那条领先的下跌趋势线。我们仍然看到一条领先的50/50下跌趋势线，但标普500指数正面临近1%的跌幅。
纳斯达克指数目前下跌1.2%，带有50/50的领先下跌线。这些波动必须停止。我相信 Microsoft 将处于这一变化的最前沿。当他们开始抛售 Microsoft、Apple 和 Nvidia 的股票时，你就会知道，那时整个市场将开始下跌。
Microsoft，还是那句话，我们可以整天争论软件板块是否已死，但正如我提到的，它目前至少还在交易。当市场意识到，是的，确实存在轻微的下跌趋势，那么，Microsoft 的股票就会相应地遭到抛售。
出于这个原因，我会一直交易到到期日 D18。我选择这个较远日期的原因是，我相信整个市场将经历抛售，但最终我无法确定确切的时间点。因此，我会给自己60多天的时间。我会买入520的看跌期权，同时卖出510的看跌期权作为对应。
这是一个大规模的10美元卖出策略，成本为3.10美元。是的，我很平静，目前我并没有特定的目标位，Marley。
Yes, again , as you mentioned a moment ago, this would be a bearish deal for Microsoft. Look, Microsoft at this point, I think we can make a lot of technical arguments to explain why they bought it.
Look, there aren't many alternatives to invest in. I mean, you know, it's bad to start buying Walmart again . I don't think this is necessarily a positive sign. I don't think our purchase of Microsoft is a positive sign either.
Didn't I hear a few weeks ago that the software industry was completely finished? Of course , you would then argue that Azure would save Microsoft. Look, neither this nor that.
The reason behind my stance towards Microsoft is my belief that we are about to witness widespread sales activity in the market. Therefore, this latest deal, this downward move on Microsoft shares, goes beyond Microsoft alone; it concerns the market as a whole.
We have witnessed these fluctuations daily. Look at the advanced downward trend line today. We still see a leading 50/50 downward trend line, but the S&P 500 is facing a loss of nearly 1%.
The Nasdaq index is currently down 1.2% with a 50/50 leading down line. These fluctuations must stop. I believe Microsoft will be at the forefront of this change. You will know when they start selling shares of Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, then the market as a whole will start to decline.
Microsoft, again , we could argue all day about whether the software sector is dead or not, but as I mentioned, it is currently trading at least. When the market realizes that, yes, there is a slight downward trend , well, Microsoft shares will be sold accordingly.
For this reason, I will continue trading until the expiry date D18. The reason I chose this distant date is that I believe the entire market will experience selling, but ultimately I cannot pinpoint the exact timing.
Therefore, I will give myself a little over 60 days. I will buy put options at 520, and sell put options at 510 in return. It's a large- scale $10 selling strategy, at a cost of $3.10.
Yes, I am at peace and I don't have a specific destination right now, Marley.
但在这只股票上，当财报公布前后有一个长期交易机会，KG，但在那之后，我需要一些时间来思考，实际上是在财报公布后一个多月。Kevin，你在 Microsoft 的技术分析中看到了什么？
But there is a long- term deal on this stock when the earnings announcement comes around, KG, but after that, I'll need some time to think , more than a month in fact after the earnings report comes out .
What do you see in Microsoft's technical analysis, Kevin?
嗯，Don，看起来 Walmart 那边有竞争。我的意思是，Don，这有点道理，不是吗？一家基础消费类公司在这种市场环境下以37倍的市盈率交易。如你所知，我理解你的观点。你看，Microsoft 似乎处于有利位置，但可能会出现价格下跌。
如果你看多，你可能会希望看到这只股票价格下跌。这是我们在去年这个时候左右看到的那种破位的前奏，当时我们记录到更低的高点和低点，利用200日移动均线大约一个半月到两个月，然后才出现崩盘。
我们在350美元附近看到了双底形态，我们得以尝试挽回部分损失。现在，我们看到的涨幅比过去看到的要快，我们现在正在重新测试540-550美元区域附近。昨天，我们又看到了一个射击之星形态，带有轻微反转，今天我们正走向约1%的下跌，但我们在523美元附近有一个支撑区。
这是 Microsoft 股票在过去两个月里大致在8月到10月之间所处的通道线。但如果我们跌破该位置，我们会找到20日移动均线，然后是50日移动均线。这里的相对强弱指数（RSI）有点独特；我们记录到更低的高点，但我们仍有更高的低点。
MACD指标处于上升形态，12日指数移动平均线（EMA）位于26日EMA之上。这是一个基本形态。这就是为什么我说，如果你看多，你会喜欢看到价格小幅回落，并在周线图上形成杯柄形态。
这是我们稍后可以继续讨论的：周线图显示出潜在的突破，也可能出现潜在的拒绝。但即使我们回落，价格也许在480-485区域附近企稳，然后我们尝试上行，那可能会给你足够的动能来突破。
相对强弱指数（RSI）正在形成更高的低点，MACD处于看涨形态，12日指数移动平均线位于26日指数移动平均线之上。这是一个显著的企稳和潜在的突破。但话说回来，我认为走势的速度比当前股价更令人担忧，而且我在技术面上同意他的看法，因为该股已经到达阻力区。让我们拭目以待，看看未来几周是否可能出现下跌。
Well, Don, it seems there's competition at Walmart. I mean, Don, that makes some sense, doesn't it? A basic consumer company that trades at a multiple of 37 in this type of market.
As you know, I understand your point of view. Look, Microsoft seems to be in a good position, but there could be a price drop. If you are optimistic, you might want to see a decline in the price of this stock.
This was a prelude to the kind of breakdown we saw around this time last year, where we recorded lower highs and lows, taking advantage of the 200-day moving average for about a month and a half to two months before the crash.
We saw a double bottom pattern at around the $350 level , and we were able to try to recover some of those losses. Now, the gains we've seen have been faster compared to what we've seen in the past, and we're now retesting the $540-$550 area around.
Yesterday, we saw another shooting star pattern, with a slight reversal, and today we are heading for a downward move of approximately 1%, but we have a support zone around $523.
This is the channel line in which Microsoft shares have settled over the past two months, roughly between August and October. But if we go below that, we will find the 20-day moving average, and then the 50-day moving average.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) here is a bit unique; we have recorded lower highs, but we still have higher lows. The MACD indicator is in an upward formation, with the 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) above the 26-day EMA.
This is a basic pattern. That's why I say, if you're optimistic, you'll like to see the price pull back a little and form a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart. This is what we can move on to later: the weekly chart shows a potential breakout, and possibly a potential rejection.
But even if we go back, and the price perhaps stabilizes around the 480-485 area , and then we try to go up, that might give you enough momentum to break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making higher lows, and the MACD is in a bullish formation, with the 12-day exponential moving average above the 26-day exponential moving average .
This is a significant stability and a potential breakthrough. But again, I think the speed of the move is more worrying than the current stock price, and I agree with him technically, as the stock has reached a resistance zone.
Let's wait and see if there's a possible decline in the coming weeks.
嗯，Microsoft 的股票目前在盘中下跌约1%，至537.98，我们还回想起10月28日的财报公布事件。
Well, Microsoft's stock is currently down about 1% during the session to 537.98, and we also recall the earnings announcement event on October 28.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 13 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。