MSFT 估值合理至略微低估，预计将继续表现良好；若维持32倍市盈率并沿盈利增长路径推进，18个月后股价将达770美元，即再涨40–50%。
逐段跳播
所以，如果你还没有配置 Google、Meta、Microsoft 或 Amazon，我强烈建议你构建一个合适的投资组合，并且也许像我一样，加大我在“七大巨头”上的仓位。
So, if you don't have exposure to Google, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon, I highly recommend building a suitable investment portfolio and, perhaps like me, increasing my weight in the "Great Seven".
但我在 Amazon 也有很大的投资仓位，在 Microsoft 有很大的仓位，在 Meta 的仓位在增长，在 Alphabet 的仓位也在增长。
but I also have a large investment position in Amazon, a large position in Microsoft, a growing position in Meta, and a growing position in Alphabet.
我仍然相信，像 Amazon、Microsoft、Meta、Apple 以及 Nvidia 等大型科技股会继续表现良好。
I still believe that big tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and, you know , Nvidia, and the like, will continue to perform well.
另一家值得谈的伟大公司是 Microsoft。我实际上会在“TradingView”上打开它的图表。你们谁还记得？也许我能找到相关的帖子。但你们谁还记得，我想是在 5 月或 4 月，Microsoft 跌破 200 周移动平均线的时候？
我坐在这里直播，对大家说：“伙计们，Microsoft 正在 200 周移动平均线下方交易。”如果我们回到 Microsoft 的历史，看看这条 200 周移动平均线，这条蓝线，每次股价处于或低于这条均线时，我把这条线往上画。
我甚至画了这条线。每次股价处于或低于这条 200 周移动平均线时，对吧？那都是买入的好理由。没错，这可以追溯到 2012 年。所以，在 15 年的时间里，对吧？回顾大约 15 年，在 200 周移动平均线处买入是个好主意。
嗯，它在 2012 年发生过。在我们经历的 2022 年熊市期间也发生过。然后就在今年早些时候的 3 月刚刚发生。当时股价在交易，我记得在我的券商应用里加仓了。当时是什么价格？
365、368。我知道 Christian 对这只股票非常兴奋。Eric、Robert，我们当时都在讨论在 200 周移动平均线处或下方买入 Microsoft。恭喜。这只股票现在在大约 6 个月里上涨了 48% 或 49%。
Another great company to talk about is Microsoft. I will actually open its chart on " TradingView". Who among you remembers? Perhaps I can find a post about that. But who among you remembers , I think it was in May or April, when Microsoft was trading below its 200-week moving average?
I sat here on a live broadcast and said to everyone: "Guys, Microsoft is trading below its 200-week moving average." If we go back in time to Microsoft's history and look at this 200-week moving average, this blue line, every time the stock has traded at or below this average, I have drawn this line up.
I even drew this line. Every time the stock traded at or below this 200-week moving average, right? That was a good reason to buy. That's right, that goes back to 2012. So, over the course of 15 years, right?
Looking back about 15 years, buying at the 200-week moving average was a good idea. Well, it happened in 2012. And it happened during 2022 during the bear market we experienced.
Then it just happened earlier this year in March. The stock was trading, and I remember buying more in my brokerage app. At what price was it trading? 365, 368. I know that Christian was very excited about this stock.
Eric, Robert, we were all talking about buying Microsoft at or below this 200-week moving average. Well, congratulations. The stock has now risen by 48% or 49% in about 6 months.
如果你一直跟着我们做这件事，你刚刚就赚回了“Reach Habits”网络的年度订阅费。对于 Microsoft 这样一家巨型公司来说，仅仅 6 个月就涨了超过 40%。
And if you have been following us on this, you have just paid for your annual subscription to the "Reach Habits" network. I mean, about more than 40 percent in just 6 months for a huge company like Microsoft.
现在她说：“Austin，太好了。Microsoft 创下新高了。我在乎什么？我错过了这笔交易。我错过了这个投资。”不管怎样。没那么快。所以，我们实际上转到“Fast Graves”，因为在这里动态操作对我来说更容易一些。
现在，让我快速输入密码，这样你就什么都看不到了。不是说你打算黑进我的 Fast Graves 账户。你不会那样做的。你们不会。好。现在让我在这里转到 Microsoft，把这个去掉。
好。啊，我们到了。现在让我们看过去十二年。这对我来说听起来绝对棒极了。我是说，哇。我不知道你怎么想，但我看着这里。它看起来像一条黑线，对吧？股价倾向于跟随蓝线，蓝线代表它们的每股收益。
是的，像所有股票一样，它就像一个钟摆。它变得高估，然后低估，然后上下波动。所以，在 2021 年，它被高估了。然后它变得低估。然后它变高，然后变低，然后变高，然后变低。我们在 4 月谈到 200 周均线时，它被显著低估。
但它现在的状态如何？如果你像我这样看，它在这里估值相当合理，对吧？我们到了，它仍然略微低估，但你知道蓝线要往哪里去。它在[某个位置]，这是什么？嗯，500 美元，不。是的，每股 543 美元。
或者说。我是说，如果你维持相同的 32 倍市盈率，那就是 18 个月后 770 美元的股票。这意味着什么？再赚 40% 或 50% 的利润？
Now she says, "Austin, great. Microsoft has reached new record highs. What do I care? I missed out on the trade. I missed out on this investment." Whatever the case. Not that fast.
So, let's actually move to " Fast Graves" because it's a little easier for me to do this dynamically here. Now, let me quickly type my password so you don't see anything. It's not that you're going to hack my Fast Graves account.
You will not do that. you all. Good. So now let me go to Microsoft here and get rid of this. Good. Ah, here we are. Now let's move on to the past twelve years . This sounds absolutely fantastic to me.
I mean, wow. I don't know about you, but I'm looking at this here. It looks like a black line, doesn't it? The stock price tends to follow the blue line , which represents their earnings per share.
Yes, like all stocks, it's like a pendulum . It becomes overvalued, then undervalued, then goes back up and down. So, in 2021, it was overvalued . Then it became undervalued. Then it became higher, then lower, then higher , then lower.
It was significantly undervalued when we talked about it with the 200-week average at that time in April. But what is its status now? If you look at it like I do, it's fairly housed here, isn't it?
We get there, it's still slightly undervalued , but you know where the blue line is headed. It's at [a certain place], what is this? Um, $500, no. Yes, $543 per share. or. I mean, if you maintain the same price-to-earnings ratio of 32, that's a $770 stock in 18 months. What does that mean? Another 40% or 50% profit?
所以，简单提醒一下，Amazon、Microsoft、Meta、Apple，像这样在这些巨头、“七大巨头”上平均定额投资，并不是一个坏主意。
Um, so, just a quick reminder, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, like investing an average dollar amount in these giants, the "Great Seven," isn't a bad idea.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Rich Habits 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。