预计 MSFT 在 10 月下旬财报前维持区间震荡，相比持仓穿越事件，更倾向于采用铁鹰策略，卖出 11 月 580-585 看涨期权和 480-475 看跌期权。长期来看，200 周均线处的周线双底以及 RSI 上行令动能保持建设性；支撑位在 495 和 463。
逐段跳播
苹果和微软的股价——我们接下来要看的另外两只——在那段期间下跌了约3%，
Apple and Microsoft shares, the other two we will look at, fell by about 3% during that period,
来看苹果，你这里最后一只股票是微软。它不是“七巨头”中表现最差的，但肯定也不是最好的，Tim。比如，你打算怎么交易微软股票？
Looking at Apple, the last stock you have here is Microsoft. Not the worst performing among the "Great Seven " companies, but certainly not the best, Tim. How do you plan to trade Microsoft stock, for example?
是的，绝对。如你所知，对微软采用这种方法，财报公布将在10月底。所以，我会转到传统的11月，以此避开财报期。另外两笔交易都在财报前完全结束，以规避事件风险。在这里，我认为时间太短，无法足够久地避开它。
Yes, absolutely. As you know, by following this approach with Microsoft, the earnings announcement will be at the end of October . So, I will move to the traditional November, moving away from the earnings period in this way.
The other two deals end completely before profits, to avoid event risks. Here, I think it's too short-term to get away from it long enough.
所以，我认为微软——正如你所说，Marley，它处于这组公司的中间——在过去几个月里涨了一点多，但涨幅不如苹果，而且肯定没有像Nvidia那样下跌。
So, I think Microsoft, which, as you said, Marley, was in the middle of the group, has risen a little over the last couple of months, but not to the same extent as Apple, and certainly hasn't fallen like Nvidia.
因此，我通过卖出“看涨期权价差”和“看跌期权价差”来做一笔“铁鹰”交易，同时在涨跌两个方向上都留出足够的安全边际。
Therefore, I make an "Iron Condor" trade by selling "Call Spread" and "Pot Spread" while providing sufficient safety margin in the ups and downs.
我喜欢的一点是，过去几周里这些股票的隐含波动率都相对较高。所以，我会在580-585卖出11月的“看涨期权价差”，同时在480-475卖出“看跌期权价差”，这笔交易我大约能收到1.50美元。
I like the fact that implied volatility has been relatively high across all these stocks over the past few weeks. So, I will sell the November "Call Spread" at 580-585, and at the same time the "Pot Spread" at 480-475, and I will get approximately $1.50 from this transaction.
我喜欢这个风险回报比。我喜欢我们有很大的安全边际。我喜欢微软在这里的走势相当平淡。我认为，即便在财报之后，正如我们在许多AI股票上看到的那样，除非它们交出惊人的业绩或令人大失所望，短期内它们很可能至少会经历一次常规的事件行情。
I like this return on risk. I like that we have a large margin of safety. I like that Microsoft was trading quite casually here. I think that even after earnings, as we've seen in many AI stocks , unless they deliver spectacular results or disappoint badly, they'll likely see at least a normal event in the short term.
因此，我正利用我认为将继续是一只没有明确方向的股票，宁可因错过而少赚，也不愿抢在利润前面。是的，这笔交易我们同样有良好而宽阔的利润空间。距离那个财报事件大约还有一个月。
Therefore, I am taking advantage of what I believe will continue to be a stock with no clear direction, avoiding profits by missing out rather than staying ahead of them. Yes, we have a good and wide profit margin in this deal as well.
We will be about a month away from that earnings event.
那么，KG，从技术面来看，这笔交易中有哪些具体价位让你觉得突出？是的，这引起了我的注意。如你所知，说这个事件可能影响甚微地过去，是一个相当大胆的判断。
So, KG, looking at the technical aspects here, did any of those specific levels in the deal stand out to you? Yes, it came to my attention. As you know , it's a rather bold suggestion to say that this event may pass with little impact.
这只股票实际上自去年左右以来一直在构筑底部，而我们现在正处于那次突破的颈线位置。
This stock has actually been forming a base since about last year , and we are now at the neckline of that breakout.
因此，我想说，在微软的利润方面，我们很可能会看到一些令人兴奋的进展。现在，我们可以看到这只股票明显走出了更低的高点和更低的低点，而且我们有这个双底形态。
Therefore, I would say that we will likely see some exciting developments when it comes to Microsoft's profits. Now, we can see that the stock has clearly made lower highs and lower lows , and we have this double bottom pattern.
我们看到的第一个低点是在4月初。我们回来后在6月重新测试了350这一水平，自那以后我们一直在录得更高的高点。一波非常强劲的上涨，涨幅超过57%。但是，Tim说得对。我们正处于某种盘整阶段。
The first low we saw was in early April. We came back and retested the 350 level in June, and since then we have been recording higher highs. A very strong upward movement, with a rise exceeding 57%.
But, you know, Tim is right. We are in a consolidation phase of sorts .
我们曾有这条通道线，它实际上持续了大约一个半月到两个月，之后它突破了区间并测试了550这一水平。我们现在处于盘整阶段，但仍交投于20日、50日和200日移动均线上方。
We had this channel line which actually lasted for about a month and a half or two months, before it broke the range and tested the 550 level. We are in a consolidation phase now, but we are still trading above the 20-day, 50- day, and 200-day moving averages.
我们再次走向一个重大事件，如果收到好消息，我们可能会看到向上突破。现在，如果出现下跌，你实际上说的是跌破20日移动均线，甚至50日移动均线。你真正要看的是约495美元附近的第一个主要支撑区，同时RSI正试图盘整并小幅走高。
We are once again heading towards a major event where we may witness an upward breakout if we receive good news. Now, if a drop occurs, you are really talking about a loss of the 20-day moving average and even the 50- day moving average.
You are really looking at the first major support zone at around the $495 level, with the RSI trying to consolidate and move slightly higher.
不过，MACD 指标处于略微更偏空的位置，12 日指数移动平均线位于 26 日移动平均线之下。
However, the MACD indicator is in a slightly more bearish position with the 12-day exponential moving average below the 26-day moving average.
但是 Marley，说到 Microsoft，真正让人兴奋的地方就在这里。所以，大概率不会在未来两周内出现，但如果你看周线图，我们又一次看到了这轮下跌。
But Marley, this is where you feel the real excitement when it comes to Microsoft. So, probably not in the next two weeks, but if you look at the weekly chart, we have seen this decline again.
我们看到了一个双底。这个双底也正好与 200 周移动平均线重合，这是长期图表上一条关键的移动平均线。该股在相对强弱指标（RSI）上继续创出更高的高点和更高的低点，这意味着长期动能依然良好。
We had a double bottom. This double bottom also coincided with the 200-week moving average , a key moving average on the long-term chart. The stock continues to make higher highs and lows on the Relative Strength Index , which means that the momentum is still good in the long term.
MACD 指标也处于上行状态，这意味着长期动能确实很好。我们现在正接近对该颈线的一次测试。这是自去年 7 月以来我们第三次这样做。
The MACD indicator is also in an upward position, which means that the momentum is really good in the long run. We are now approaching a test of that neckline. This is the third time we have done this since July of last year.
看起来这只股票确实想尝试向上突破并走高，而不是向下走。如果我们确实看到下跌，那么你就要关注 495 这一水平，甚至 463，也就是 20 周移动平均线，作为这里的关键支撑区域。
It seems the stock really wants to try to break through and move upwards instead of going downwards. If we do see a decline, then again, you are looking at the 495 level and even 463, which is the 20-week moving average, as a key support area here .
但这是一个良好的底部和技术结构，适合双底形态。在周线图上，你不会经常看到这种形态。好。来看 Microsoft，我们发现它今天走低，目前与大盘走势相反。在 5:31:07 时，我们看到它下跌了半个百分点。
But this is a good base and technical structure for the double bottom pattern. You don't get many of these patterns on the weekly chart. Good. Looking at Microsoft, we find it trading lower today, going against the general market trend at the moment .
We are seeing a half percent decrease at 5:31:07.
当然，财报公布是在 10 月 28 日，这让我们距离这笔交易最终敲定大约还有一个月。
Of course, the earnings announcement is on October 28th, which gives us about a month before this deal is finalized.
观察点
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 15 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。