$MSFT · FAST Graphs · 2026-10-27
Microsoft 接近 18.89% 的预期增长，大概不足以支撑 29 倍的市盈率；像它几乎一直以来的那样高于合理价值交易，意味着付出高于其价值的代价并承担风险，而 NVDA 以 28 倍市盈率交易、增长更高。不过，若回归其五年平均倍数，它仍可捕捉可观的增长，而且 18.89% 远比 50% 容易实现。
逐段跳播
现在看下一家公司，Microsoft，增长率接近6%，它的情况与 Apple 类似。我们看到了14%的增长。速度略有加快。估值仍然很高，而且它的增长率比 Apple 加速得多得多。它实现的增长率几乎是 Apple 的两倍。
Now, looking at the next company, Microsoft with a growth rate of nearly 6%, it tells a similar story to Apple. We have seen growth of 14%. The pace has picked up a little . Ratings remain high, and its growth rate has accelerated much more than Apple's.
It is achieving, as you know, almost double Apple's growth rate.
那么，这能证明29倍的市盈率合理吗？大概率不能。你知道，18%的增长率配上29倍的市盈率，会被认为非常高。如果它回到按合理估值倍数交易，就不会赚多少钱。不过，如果它涨到按正常的市盈率，也就是五年平均水平来交易，它可能会见证并参与到这家公司相当大一部分的增长中。所以，这里面是有潜力的。
So, does this justify a price-to-earnings ratio of 29? Probably not. You know that an 18% growth rate with a P/E ratio of 29 is considered very high. If it returns to trading at a fair value multiple, it won't make much profit.
However, if it rises to trade at its normal price-to-earnings ratio , i.e., the five-year average, it may witness and participate in a significant amount of this company's growth. So, there is potential in that.
你知道，Microsoft几乎一直——尤其是最近——都在这条橙色线之上交易，也就是在合理估值倍数之上。这不可否认，但维持在合理价值之上会带来风险，不是吗？你为一项资产支付的价格超过了它实际的价值。
You know that Microsoft has almost always traded , especially recently, above this orange line, i.e., above the fair value multiple. That's undeniable, but staying above fair value opens the door to risks, doesn't it?
You are paying more for an asset than it is actually worth.
你可以找到其他增长20%、市盈率却比Microsoft更低的公司。我的意思是，回到Nvidia的例子，它的市盈率是28倍，而Microsoft的市盈率更高、增长却低得多。因此，这里面是有风险的。
You can find other companies that are growing by 20% and trading at a lower P/E ratio than Microsoft. I mean, going back to the Nvidia example, it trades at a P/E ratio of 28, while Microsoft has a higher P/E ratio and much lower growth. Therefore, there is a risk involved.
显然，要实现Nvidia所需的高增长率、从而让投资者觉得值得，也存在风险。不过，我们在Microsoft的预测中看到的20%增长率，也就是18.89%，比50%要容易实现得多。
Clearly, there is also a risk in achieving the high growth rate that Nvidia needs to make it worthwhile for investors. However, the 20% growth rate we see in Microsoft's forecast, i.e. 18.89%, is much easier to achieve than 50%.
回顾分析师的预期，我们看到相比12个月前，长期前景是乐观的；而正如Apple的情况一样，我们观察到一种中性状态，分析师的预期稳定下来，并固定在他们所选择的水准上。
Looking back at analysts’ estimates, we see long-term optimism compared to what it was 12 months ago, while, just as in the case of Apple, we observe a kind of neutrality, where analysts’ estimates settle and remain fixed on what they have chosen.
正如我们在Microsoft和Apple身上看到的，尤其是Apple，它是第二大持仓，年增长只有10%，却是这份名单上估值倍数最高的之一，对吧？
As we saw with Microsoft and Apple , especially Apple which is the second largest holding and is growing at only 10% annually, but has one of the highest multiples on this list, right?