$MSFT · The Motley Fool · 2026-10-28
Microsoft 是一家乏味但非常赚钱的 AI 玩家；Azure 增长是关键指标，在更大基数上仍同比增长 38%，而过去一次 1% 的未达预期就令股价下跌。它很可能是未来几个季度唯一仍在产生自由现金流的主要 AI 玩家，这得益于有限的 AI 融资，并应在快速增长的同时每年产生数百亿美元自由现金流。Copilot 表现不佳，企业采用部分是被迫的，不过在 Excel 中表现不错；它不如同行令人兴奋，但仍是最好的生意之一。
逐段跳播
不过今天晚些时候，Alphabet和Microsoft会发布财报。但没错，就AI这个故事而言，我会说Microsoft和Google是今天晚些时候的重头戏。
Although later today we do have Alphabet and Microsoft report. But yeah, for for the AI story, I would say Microsoft and Google are are the big stories later later today.
这会影响今晚要发布财报的公司，Google和Microsoft，它们是anthropic最大的两个交易对手。我记得把两者加起来，已经有数千亿美元的收入合同签给了它们。
it impacts the companies that are going to report tonight, Google and Microsoft, two of the the biggest counterparties for anthropic. hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue already contracted to I believe both of them when you add them together.
Microsoft Azure总是让我想，他们是在打聪明牌还是怎样？因为他们的数字要大得多。才40，差不多450亿美元，这仍然很大，但跟其他所有相比就小了。而且我们看到Microsoft在这场AI融资游戏里并不是那么大的玩家，对吧？
他们试图稍微从OpenAI抽身。他们把Azure向其他方开放。他们并不真的想为那么多玩家提供融资。这是一套相当有意思的打法，这大概也是为什么在未来几个季度里，他们可能是唯一一个仍在产生自由现金流的公司。
Microsoft Azure is always the one where I'm like, are they playing it smart or or what? Because their number is much more. It's only at 40. It's almost $45 billion, which is still big, but small compared to all the rest.
And we have seen Microsoft be not that big of a of a player in this whole AI financing game, right? They they they tried to walk away a bit from OpenAI. They opened up Azure to others.
They don't really want to finance that that many players. It's it's quite interesting playbook, which is also probably why they will be the only one still generating free cash flow um over the over the next couple of quarters.
好，最后一个。我们谈谈Microsoft。我这儿打开错了东西。Microsoft今天收盘后发布财报。我们要关注哪些方面？我就像刚才对Google那样，把营收预期和盈利预期调出来，我们要看的是，一年前是764亿美元，抱歉，那是错的季度。
是777亿美元营收。现在市场预期大约是907亿美元营收。所以就像我们在Alphabet身上看到的那样，这里也是大幅增长。每股收益，我会说这里预期增幅更大，从413到472，这是市场目前预期的门槛，但你在Microsoft身上关注哪些指标？
All right, final one. Let's touch on Microsoft. Uh I pulled up the wrong thing here. Uh Microsoft reports after the market close closes today. Uh what sort of things are we looking for?
I'll just pop up the the revenue estimates and earnings estimates uh like I did with uh with Google, but we're looking for, you know, a year ago 76 uh.4 billion worth or sorry, that's the wrong quarter. 77 uh.7 billion worth of revenue.
Now they're looking for the market is looking for about $90.7 billion worth of revenue. So just like we see with Alphabet, a big jump there. earnings per share a bigger I would say a bigger jump expected here uh from 413 to 472 is what's the current bar that the market is looking for but what sort of uh what sort of metrics are you looking at with Microsoft
我觉得对Microsoft来说，大家唯一看的就是Azure，我觉得那字面上就是市场唯一在乎的指标，Azure的增长。我记得两个季度，也许三个季度前，Azure的增长只差了1%，好像是38%，本该是39%还是怎样，市场就慌了，股价下跌。
在规模大得多的业务上，同比仍有38%的增长。所以就是Azure的增长。资本支出方面，我觉得Microsoft又是这整个AI建设潮里那个无聊但非常赚钱的玩家。
I think with Microsoft the only thing people look at is Azure that's the only I think that's literally the only metric that that the market cares is Azure the growth there I think there was two quarters maybe three quarters ago where the growth in Azure missed by just 1% like it was 38 should have been 39 or or whatever and the market freaked out stock dropped it's still 38% growth year over year on a much larger business as well so it's yeah it's just going to be Azure growth capex wise I think micro again Microsoft is like the the boring very profitable player in this whole AI uh AI buildouts
你要谈烂产品公司，这大概是最差的，就是copilot。用copilot，但你还是会听到copilot的数字要涨，那纯粹是因为企业被迫用copilot而不是别的。
you want to talk about a crappy product company this is this is probably the worst with cop co-pilot with copilot but and yet you will hear the numbers for copilot are going to go up and that's purely because enterprises are forced to use copilot over anything else so
所以没错，有这一点，但我确实听说人们认为大家在Excel里用copilot多得多，而且它做得相当不错。
um so yeah there is that but I did hear that people think people use copilot a lot more in Excel and it's been doing quite a good job which
对，这说得通。如果情况不是这样，如果 Copilot 在 Excel 里不能很好地工作，我会非常惊讶和失望；我认为一开始确实是这样，因为 Copilot 之前，云端功能先是在 Excel 里提供的。
yeah that makes sense I would be very surprised and disappointed if that was not the case if copilot could not work well in Excel which I think was the case at first because I cloud was available first in Excel before Copilot also
对 Microsoft 来说这挺奇怪的，但好吧，我认为它再次是市面上较好的企业之一，也许不像其他几家那么令人兴奋，但它每年将产生数百亿美元的自由现金流，并且会快速增长，他们会告诉我们他们正尽可能快地增长，所以。
quite strange from Microsoft but okay I think again it's it's again one of the one of the better businesses out there it's not maybe not as exciting as the others but it's going to generate tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow every year's going to grow fast they're going to tell us we're growing as fast as possible so
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