$MSFT · Meet Kevin · 2026-10-28
他在逢低买入后持有MSFT，并对AI扩张持乐观态度；其规模更大的代理/基础设施业务实现增长，而规模较小的硬件/消费业务出现萎缩，资产负债表稳健。但他警告现金流被扭曲——剔除其他/neocloud投资后，190亿美元自由现金流降至零——且租赁年限从15年改为25年使折旧减少约20-30亿美元，令定价能力充其量保持稳定，而非确定上升。
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当然还有 Microsoft，它的表现更好，但在562这一水平遭到拒绝，而这正是我们专门为 Microsoft 设定的目标线。
And of course we have Microsoft, which performed better but faced rejection at the 562 level, which is the line we were specifically targeting for Microsoft.
我们之前说过会走向565，亲爱的。这就是我们写进每日摘要和 Alpha 报告里的内容。就是这条线。该股实际上精准地触及了565，刚好在那条线之上。
We were saying we'd head to 565, my dear. This is what we have included in our daily summary and our Alpha reports. This is the line. The stock actually reached 565 with pinpoint accuracy, just above that line.
而现在，如你所知，它似乎受到了 Google 处境的负面影响。
And now, as you know, it seems to be negatively affected by Google's situation.
如果我们把它和 Microsoft 对比，就能更理解为什么 Microsoft 没有像 Google 那样受挫。这就是我想把这两家公司放在一起讲的原因。
If we compare this to Microsoft, we can understand more about why Microsoft is not suffering as much as Google. That's why I wanted to bring these two companies together.
现在让我们转到 Microsoft。Microsoft 的处境与 Google 完全不同。在 Microsoft，其业务中最大的部分，也就是智能体和基础设施，实现了同比增长。你可以清楚地看到这里的增长。
就连他们业务中最小的部分也出现了萎缩。他们业务中最小的部分是硬件和消费类产品，比如 Xbox 和手机。所以，在 Microsoft，较大的业务部分增长了，较小的部分萎缩了。
Let's move on to Microsoft now. Microsoft is in a completely different position than Google. At Microsoft, the largest part of its business, namely agents and infrastructure, grew on an annual basis.
You can clearly see the growth here. Even the smallest part of their work has shrunk. The smallest part of their business is hardware and consumer products such as Xbox and phones.
So, at Microsoft, the larger part of the business grew and the smaller part shrunk.
我认为这就是为什么 Microsoft 上涨2.6%，而 Google 现在下跌9%。我持有 Microsoft 股票。我在低位买入的。啊，我们是在回调时买入的。我卖出了一份看跌期权。
实际上，我是平掉了一份卖出期权，并在回调时买了一些。今天发生了很多事情，我现在没必要一一重复，但重点是，我对人工智能的整体扩张持乐观态度。我不认为我们在这里看到的是人工智能灾难的迹象。
我认为，我们在这里看到的是一个迹象，表明 Google 已经被同样蓬勃发展的 AI 软件所颠覆。
I think this is why Microsoft is up 2.6% and Google is down 9% now. I own Microsoft shares. I bought when it was low. Ah, you know, we bought in at the dip. Okay, I sold a put option.
In fact, I covered a sell option, and bought some on the dip. A lot of things happened today. I don't need to repeat everything now, but the point is that I'm optimistic about the overall expansion of artificial intelligence.
I don't think what we're seeing here is a sign of a disaster in artificial intelligence. I think what we're seeing here is a sign that Google is already being disrupted by the very same burgeoning AI software.
我们再接着聊一会儿 Microsoft，看看能得出什么洞见。Microsoft 的现金流量表相当奇怪，你应该谨慎对待。现在，我想说清楚：我持有 Microsoft，但我想非常明确地指出，Microsoft 在这里做了一些不太光彩的事。
Let's continue talking about Microsoft for a moment. Just to see what insights we have. Microsoft has a rather strange cash flow statement. You should handle this with caution.
Now, I want to be clear. I own Microsoft, but I want to be very clear. Microsoft is doing some shady things here.
从技术角度看，你看这里，我们有190亿美元的自由现金流。不错。经营活动现金流：580亿。厂房、财产和设备：390亿。但 Microsoft 做的一件有点奇怪的事，就是进行这些其他投资。
价值130亿美元的其他投资会是什么呢？哦，我不知道。那对 Neoclouds 的投资呢，比如这里的另外53亿美元？
Technically speaking, if you look here, we have a free cash flow of $19 billion. Good. Cash from operations: 58. Plants, property and equipment: 39 billion. But one of the things Microsoft does that is a bit strange is making these other investments.
What could other investments worth $13 billion be? Oh, I don't know . What about investments in Neoclouds, like the other $5.3 billion here?
这显然不同于我们对厂房、财产和设备的投资。其实并非如此，两者都属于投资类别。但你应该注意到这一点。这是一种简单的操纵手法，因为如果你剔除这些投资和那些其他投资，我们的现金流就会从190亿美元的自由现金流降到零。所以，这里面有一点操纵。应该仔细监控。
which is apparently different from our investment in factories, property, and equipment . not really. Both fall under the investment category. But you should be aware of that. This is a simple manipulation, because if you exclude these investments and those other investments, our cash flow drops from $19 billion in free cash flow to zero.
So, there's a bit of manipulation here . It should be monitored carefully.
关于初始补偿，这些是他们持有的账单，总计950亿美元。我有640亿美元的短期现金，加上620亿美元的应收账款。我并不太担心这两家公司的资产负债表。资产负债表不错。他们筹集了足够的资金。
资产负债表是稳健的。他们仍然在赚很多钱。他们的营业收入增长了20.9%，而总收入只增长了18.8%，这表明他们拥有定价权。但我想就这件事提醒你。我也认为这是胡说八道。为什么我认为这是胡说八道？
因为他们把部分租赁从15年重新分类为25年。这会延长折旧年限。这意味着他们每季度扣除的折旧更少。折旧水平仍在增长，但没有原本会有的那么多。
Well, regarding the initial compensation, these are the invoices they have. Bills totaling $95 billion. I have $64 billion in short-term cash plus $62 billion in accounts receivable .
I'm not really worried about the balance sheet of either of these companies. The balance sheets are good. They have raised enough money. The balance sheets are sound. They are still making a lot of money.
Their operating income grew by 20.9%, indicating that they have pricing power given that their total revenue increased by only 18.8%. But I want to warn you about this matter. I also think it's nonsense.
Why do I think it's nonsense? Because they reclassified some of their leases from 15 years to 25 years. This will extend the depreciation schedules. This means they deduct less depreciation each quarter .
The level of depreciation is still growing, but not as much as it would otherwise have.
如你所见，折旧从80亿美元增长到了117亿美元。我认为，如果他们没做这个改动，我们本可以看到额外二三十亿美元的扣除，那会直接影响到这里的这些数字。如果从营业收入中扣除了二三十亿美元，那会告诉你，他们的定价权充其量也就是稳定。
因此，我认为说它肯定在上升是错误的。这里确实需要一些精确性。
As you can see, the depreciation has grown from $8 billion to $11.7 billion . I think if they hadn't made this change, we could have seen an additional two or three billion dollars deducted, and that would have directly impacted these numbers here.
If two or three billion dollars had been deducted from operating income, it would tell you that their pricing power was probably stable at best . Therefore, I think it is wrong to say that it is definitely on the rise.
There is definitely a need for some precision here.
这是 Microsoft。我们的剩余履约义务大致与 Google 处于同一水平。Microsoft 的估值为 6770 亿美元。
This is Microsoft. We have remaining performance commitments at roughly the same levels as Google. Microsoft is valued at $677 billion.
它还包括 OpenAI、Microsoft、Amazon Web Services 以及所有这些参与者。
It also includes OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and all those players.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。