$MSFT · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-27
Microsoft 的 Azure 增速一直持平在 37%-40%，被归因于产能限制，而 Microsoft 不断推迟其供需平衡的时间表。若本季度 Azure 增速加快至 40% 以上，将对市场意义重大，因为与 Google 不同，Microsoft 和 Amazon 的云增长稳定但并未加速；我希望能看到这一点。
逐段跳播
我们甚至看到某些玩家，比如 Microsoft，有一阵子出现了一点放缓。
We even kind of saw a little bit of a slowdown by certain players like Microsoft for a little bit
但另一方面，Microsoft 非常重要，因为 M365 许可证和 Azure，它们也许同样重要。我不知道。你怎么看？
but on the other hand, Microsoft's really important because the M365 licenses, Azure, they're they're both maybe they're equally as important. I don't know. What do you think?
我觉得我很想看到的是，微软的 Azure 收入一直停留在37%、38%、39%、40%这种横盘状态，而他们一直说主要原因是产能受限。如果这个季度他们不知怎么拿到了比预期或比他们预测多得多的产能，我们看到 Azure 那个数字增长得远快于40%，我认为市场就会醒悟过来。
因为我觉得对 Google 来说，我们过去两个季度看到了疯狂的双位数增长；亚马逊和微软我们看到的是稳定增长，但没有像 Google 那样加速。所以如果微软在云增长上给我们带来加速，我认为这对市场会很有意义，这就是我期待、我希望能看到的。
I think that what I'm excited to see is Microsoft's Ashure revenue has kind of stayed um in kind of this flatline mode between 37 38 39 40% and and they continue to say main reason is capacity constraints if this quarter they somehow got a lot more capacity than they expected or they projected and we see that Azure number grow a lot faster than that 40% I think the market can wake up and say because I think for Google right we're seeing we have seen crazy double digit growth these past two two quarters we haven't we've seen consistent growth with Amazon uh with Microsoft but not an acceleration like we saw for Google so if Microsoft gives us an acceleration in in cloud growth I think that would be meaningful um to the market and that's what I'm excited I'm hoping to see
我知道微软之前一直想掐准一个时点，让 AI 云的供需达到平衡。我觉得他们接下来会不再谈这个了，因为他们一次又一次地把这个时点往后推。他们一直说：“嘿，下个季度、接下来两个季度，我们相信供需会更好地平衡。”
而每个季度他们都说：“其实是在下个季度，其实是在下个季度。”我认为他们最终得放弃这套说法，干脆说：“嘿，看吧，我们其实没法告诉你云领域什么时候能很快实现供需平衡。”
I know Microsoft was trying to time a moment where there would be a balance between supply and demand in the AI cloud. I think they're going to stop talking about that because they keep pushing it off longer and longer.
They kept saying, "Hey, next quarter, next two quarters, we believe there's going to be a better supply and demand balance." And every quarter, they say, "Actually, it's next quarter.
It's actually next quarter." I think eventually they need to give up with that and just say, "Hey, look, we actually can't tell you when there's going to be a supply demand balance in the cloud space anytime soon.
观察点
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