$MSFT · The Investor Channel · 2026-10-30
MSFT 本季度表现极佳：营收 920 亿美元、成本控制良好，并在 Azure 超预期后以低利率发行 250 亿美元债券。华尔街因其稳健而给予其相对 Google 和 Amazon 的溢价，不过营业利润从 380 亿美元小幅降至约 360 亿美元，竞争对手最终可能追上。股价接近 550 附近的纪录水平，回调即是机会，但要突破 540 区间将很困难。
逐段跳播
随着微软、谷歌和亚马逊发布财报，大型科技公司本周遭受重创。
Big technology companies were hit hard this week with the release of earnings results from Microsoft, Google and Amazon.
而你的广告服务只增长了 12%。这是微软广告业务的增长率，我们稍后会讨论。这可不妙。当你的广告业务增速和微软一样时，这不是个好兆头。
Where your advertising services are growing at only 12%. This is the growth rate of Microsoft's advertising activity, which we will discuss shortly. This is not good. When your advertising business grows at the same rate as Microsoft, that's not a good sign.
接下来看微软。本周开始时，该股在 525 附近。股价小幅下跌，但在公司公布财报后出现了不错的上涨，我们稍后会回顾。
Moving on to Microsoft. The week began with the stock at levels around 525. The stock fell slightly, but made a good rise after the company announced its earnings, which we will review shortly.
公司第一季度的预测在营收和利润两方面都超出了预期。对即将到来的第四季度，营收指引也很强劲。对即将到来的第四季度也有强劲的营收指引。
The company's first quarter forecasts exceeded estimates in both revenue and profit. There were also strong revenue guidance for the upcoming fourth quarter. There were also strong revenue guidance for the upcoming fourth quarter .
在亚马逊、谷歌和 Meta 纷纷融资之际，微软并没有袖手旁观、无所作为。在其云计算部门 Azure 全面超出预期的一天后，他们卖出了超过 250 亿美元的债券。
Microsoft is not standing idly by while Amazon, Google, and Meta are raising funds without it taking any action. They sold more than $25 billion worth of bonds one day after their cloud computing unit, Azure, outperformed expectations across the board.
我在这款工具“Yahoo Alpha”里做的一件事，就是问“Yahoo Scout”：“微软这周从债券市场筹集了多少钱？利率是多少？你会看到 5.2% 到 6.25% 的数字。”
One thing I use in this tool, "Yahoo Alpha," is that I asked "Yahoo Scout": "How much did Microsoft raise from the bond market this week? At what interest rates? You will see figures ranging from 5.2% to 6.25%."
有时，微软发行债券时，你知道它们会是投资级的，但对于一些规模较小的公司融资来说，它们会远远超出这个范围。他们刚刚以极低的利率筹集了 250 亿美元，相比 10 年期美国国债收益率而言非常低。
Sometimes, when Microsoft issues bond deals, you know they're going to be investment grade, but for some smaller companies raising money, they go far beyond that. They have just raised $25 billion at extremely low interest rates compared to the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds.
公司还公布了财报，总体而言，无论从哪个角度看，这都是一个出色的季度。微软的营收达到了 920 亿美元。我真正注意到的是，他们在所有板块都很好地控制了成本。至于研发，是的，略有增加。
我们看到所有这些公司的研发支出都在增加，但销售和营销费用保持不变。你的管理和一般费用基本没有变化。
The company also announced its earnings, and overall, it was a fantastic quarter by all accounts. Microsoft's revenue reached $92 billion. What I really noticed is that they did a good job of controlling costs across all sectors.
As for research and development, yes, it has increased slightly. We see an increase in research and development spending at all these companies, but sales and marketing expenses have remained constant.
Your administrative and general expenses have remained essentially unchanged.
因此，你的营业利润从去年的约 380 亿美元变成了约 360 亿美元。
Thus, you have gone from about $38 billion in operating income last year to about $36 billion.
净利润放缓至360亿美元。接下来看资产负债表，最近的债券发行不会体现在里面，所以目前你需要把这一点考虑进去，至少基于我们现在看到的情况是这样。公司仍然拥有充足的现金储备。
Net income slowed to $36 billion. Moving on to the balance sheet, the recent bond sales won't show up, so you need to take that into account for now, or at least based on what we're seeing right now. The company still has ample cash reserves.
从现金流量表可以清楚地看出，他们仍然预计到2027财年将实现正的自由现金流。而现在，对微软来说，这正是2027财年的开端。
It is clear from looking at the cash flow statement that they continue to expect to achieve positive free cash flow by fiscal year 2027. And now, this was the beginning of fiscal year 2027 for Microsoft.
公司产生了580亿美元的运营现金流，我说“只有”是考虑到我们在Google看到的情况，尤其是考虑到我们在Amazon看到的情况。
The company generated $58 billion in operating cash flow, and I say "only" considering what we've seen at Google, and especially considering what we've seen at Amazon.
公司在房产、工厂和设备上只花了390亿美元。他们将其归因于与数据中心相关的一些延误。
The company spent only $39 billion on property, factories, and equipment. They attributed it to some delays related to data centers.
我们已经在所有领域看到这种情况发生。在完成这些数据中心方面存在挫折。不一定是从芯片角度，也不一定是从内存角度或供应链的那部分。我不会说事情进展得顺利而清晰。这是一个我们从未见过的拥挤局面。但更繁忙的其实是运营这些数据中心。
We are already seeing this happening in all areas. There are setbacks in completing these data centers. Not necessarily from a chip perspective, and not necessarily from a memory perspective or that part of the supply chain.
I wouldn't say things are going smoothly and clearly. It's a crowded situation like we've never seen before. But the busier thing is actually running these data centers.
总体而言，微软的业绩非常出色，而且它因在财务上比Google和Amazon更审慎而受到华尔街的赞赏。微软正在踩油门，但并没有完全踩到底。
Overall, Microsoft's results have been excellent, and it is appreciated by Wall Street for being more financially prudent than Google and Amazon. Microsoft is pressing the accelerator pedal, but it's not fully depressed all the way down.
目前，华尔街正在奖励微软的谨慎做法，但我相信其他公司最终会赶上。
Currently, Wall Street is rewarding Microsoft's cautious approach , but I believe other companies will eventually catch up.
过去一年，我们看到Meta、Microsoft和Google与Nebulus、Iran、InScale和TerraWolf等众多新兴云服务提供商签署了协议。
Over the past year, we have seen Meta, Microsoft, and Google sign deals with emerging cloud providers such as Nebulus, Iran, InScale, and TerraWolf, among many others.
他们能做的是确保非常有利可图的图形处理器价格，至少按当前价格来看是这样。
What they can do is secure very profitable graphics processing unit prices, at least at current prices.
尽管云、Azure和Amazon Web Services（AWS）的增长率令人难以置信。如果这种势头在未来十年持续下去，我认为那些公司肯定会超越Apple，但就目前而言，投资者欣赏Apple所提供的安全性。
Although the growth rates in the cloud, Azure, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are incredible. If this continues for the next decade, I think those companies will definitely surpass Apple, but for now, investors appreciate the security that Apple provides.
微软正悄然在创纪录水平企稳。该公司达到了可追溯至去年的创纪录水平，或者说，抱歉，是2025年。我们回到了550区间，股价只是在那里波动。
Microsoft is quietly settling at record levels. The company achieved record levels dating back to last year, or sorry, 2025. We're back in the 550 range, and the stock is simply fluctuating there .
这就是微软去年这个时候以及今年年初在做的事情，艰难地前行。然后，一旦你做到了，砰，你就直接向前冲。这就是为什么这些下跌被视为绝佳机会。一旦你越过了这些移动平均线，看看微软；它们都提供支撑。现在，突破540区间将是一项艰巨的任务。
This is what Microsoft was doing at this time last year, and early this year, struggling to make its way. Then, once you do that, boom , you launch straight ahead. That's why these dips are considered great opportunities.
Once you've moved beyond these moving averages, look to Microsoft; they all offer support. Now, breaking through the 540 range will be a difficult task.
很明显，公司正在筹集资金并继续投资于“Azure”领域，但到目前为止一切顺利。看起来非常好。
It is clear that the company is raising funds and continuing to invest in the "Azure" field, but so far everything is fine. It looks very good.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
The Investor Channel 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。