$MSFT · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-02
MSFT 是一家伟大的公司，股价超过 500 美元，接近公允价值，550 美元的目标价意味着 6-7% 的上行空间；在 25 倍远期盈利和 1.57% 的自由现金流收益率下，说话者预计它将继续增长，但在今年 10% 的反弹后认为它并未显著低估。
逐段跳播
接下来是 Microsoft。这是第六大持仓，价值 110,000 美元，利润为 56,000 美元。这确实是一笔很棒的投资。我当初真希望自己买了更多 Microsoft 股票，但它一直是我投资组合中的一家公司。
Next, we have Microsoft. This is holding number six, valued at $110,000, with profits of $56,000. This was a truly great investment. I wish I had bought more Microsoft shares at the beginning, but it has always been a company in my portfolio.
我记得是在 200 到 220 美元左右买入这只股票的，我当时告诉投资者，我认为这是一笔极好的交易。而现在股价已超过 500 美元，我仍然认为这家公司被低估了。
I remember buying this stock at around $200 to $220, and I told investors that I thought it was an excellent deal . And here we are now at a price of over $500 , and I still believe the company is undervalued .
但我认为这只股票目前的交易价格已更接近其公允价值。我把 Microsoft 的公允价值，也就是目标价，定为 550 美元。这意味着较当前价格有 6-7% 的潜在上涨空间。再说一次，这不是最终确定的价位。
公司不会在达到公允价值后就停下，但这只是我对公司应得的合理价格的一个估计。
But I think this stock is now trading at a price a little closer to its fair value. I have set Microsoft's fair value, or target price, at $550. This means there is a potential increase of 6-7% from its price today.
Again, this is not a final and definitive price. Companies don't stop at reaching fair value, but this is merely an estimate of what I believe to be a reasonable price that the company deserves.
当我观察 Microsoft 时，毫无疑问它是一家伟大的公司，但它目前的远期市盈率已达 25 倍，自由现金流收益率为 1.57%。它今年也实现了巨大的复苏。因此，该股年内上涨了 10%。
在围绕云计算和软件的重大担忧中，该股曾大幅下跌。但它又大幅回升了。所以，当我观察这只股票，并考虑当前状况和估值时，我认为我们已接近公允价值。在 550 美元的水平上，我认为该股会继续增长，但我不认为它被显著低估。
When I look at Microsoft, there is no doubt that it is a great company, but it is already trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 and a free cash flow yield of 1.57%.
It has made a tremendous recovery this year as well. Therefore, the stock rose by 10% during the year. The stock has been falling sharply amid major concerns about cloud computing and software.
But he recovered a lot. So, when I look at this stock, and consider the current situation and valuation, I think we are close to fair value. At the $550 level , I think the stock will continue to grow, but I don't think it's significantly undervalued.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。