$MSFT · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-04
MSFT 每年在 AI 上投入近 2000 亿美元，但仍能持续产生可观的自由现金流，因为它优先建设数据中心而非开发大语言模型：已建成的数据中心能立即产生收入，客户积压订单超过 5000 亿美元，因此这是一条风险更低、更有利可图的收入与利润增长路径；在需求加速之际，它在五大洲新增了 24 个数据中心，其 Maia 芯片的进展令投资者振奋。上个季度它跑赢 Alphabet：财报发布后 MSFT 股价下跌约 1%，而 Alphabet 下跌 12%。
逐段跳播
我认为，大家之所以都在谈论 Microsoft 股票，主要原因之一是：它是四大科技公司之一，在人工智能上投入巨大，但即便每年投入近2000亿美元，仍然能产生自由现金流。
I think one of the main reasons everyone is talking about Microsoft stock is that it is one of the Big Four technology companies that spends heavily on artificial intelligence, yet still generates free cash flow even after its massive investments of nearly $200 billion a year.
那么，我们不妨仔细看看 Microsoft 为什么能做到这一点，以及它在人工智能方面的做法如何让它的商业模式持续产生可观的自由现金流。
So, let's take a closer look at why Microsoft is able to do this, and its approach to artificial intelligence that allows its business model to continue generating significant free cash flow.
不过，虽然 Microsoft 并没有在开发大语言模型上大举投入，但它在建设数据中心和提升算力方面投入很大。因为在这个领域，数据中心一旦建成，就开始产生收入，而且他们针对这部分算力积压的客户需求超过5000亿美元。
因此，他们认为这是实现收入增长和扩大利润的风险更低、更赚钱的方式。正因如此，他们在这个类别上不惜投入巨资。本季度他们在五大洲新建了24个数据中心，因为他们观察到需求正在加速。
However, while Microsoft is not spending aggressively on developing large language models, it is spending heavily on building data centers and increasing its computing power. Because in this field, once a data center is built, it starts generating revenue, and they have a backlog of customer requests exceeding $500 billion for that computing power.
Thus, they see it as a less risky and more profitable way to achieve revenue growth and expand profits. For this reason, they do not hesitate to spend huge sums in this category.
They established 24 new data centers across five continents during the quarter, as they observed accelerating demand.
投资者感兴趣的另一类，也是我作为 Microsoft 股东所关注的，是芯片领域的进展。Microsoft 正在研发自己的芯片，比如中央处理器（CPU）和图形处理器（GPU），作为 Nvidia 的替代方案。
Maia 200 芯片在 Teams 和 Copilot 应用中已经实现了每瓦代码处理能力提升1.7倍，而下一代 Maia 300 芯片将进一步提升，每瓦代码处理能力比领先的图形处理系统提高40%。
Another category that investors are interested in, and I am one of them as a shareholder in Microsoft, is developments in the field of chips. Microsoft is working on developing its own chips, such as central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), as an alternative to Nvidia.
The Maia 200 chip already delivers a 1.7x increase in code processing per watt across Teams and Copilot applications, and the next-generation Maia 300 chip will achieve further gains with a 40% increase in code processing per watt compared to leading graphics processing systems.
这些正是让 Microsoft 股票投资者感到兴奋的进展，而且他们上一季度的表现远好于竞争对手 Alphabet，这一点从两者股价截然不同的反应中就能看出来。Microsoft 公布业绩后股价下跌约1%，而 Alphabet 公布业绩后股价下跌约12%。
These are the developments that are exciting Microsoft stock investors, and their last quarter's performance was much better than that of their rival Alphabet, as we saw in the divergent stock price reaction.
Microsoft's stock fell by about 1% after the announcement of their results, while Alphabet's stock fell by about 12% after the announcement of their results.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 10 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。