$MSFT · Rich Habits · 2026-11-05
微软长期应该没问题：其数据中心以外的业务具有持久性，不会面临一些AI泡沫标的所面临的破产或归零结局，不过短期内许多AI公司、尤其是数据中心公司可能有大麻烦。
逐段跳播
各位，我现在正在听你们的播客，讲的是 Microsoft 和它打算裁掉的 6 万名员工。Microsoft 也一样。请你们去看看。你不会用 AI 替换高层管理人员，你替换的是低层员工。
Guys, I'm listening to your podcast right now regarding Microsoft and the 60,000 employees they are trying to get rid of. Microsoft as well. Just please go take a look. You don't replace your top management with AI. You replace lower level employees."
Microsoft 发行了 250 亿美元的公司债券。长期来看，它们会没事的。但短期来看，我认为很多这类 AI 公司，尤其是数据中心公司，可能会陷入大麻烦。
Microsoft issued 25 billion in corporate bonds. Long-term, they're going to be fine. But short term, I think a lot of these AI, specifically data center companies, could be in big trouble.
但就 Microsoft 和其他这些大型超大型公司而言，我拒绝相信 Satnia、Sundar、Elon、Zuckerberg、Tim Cook——对，我猜是 Apple 的新 CEO——我拒绝相信这些天才高管在过去 69、12 个月里的每一个清醒时刻，都没有在思考他们尝试建设这些算力、这些数据中心、所有这些基础设施、每家花费数千亿美元去实现目标时可能出错的每一种情形。
But as it relates to Microsoft and these other, you know, large mega cap companies, I refuse to believe that Satnia, that Sundar, that Elon, that Zuckerberg, that Tim Cook, right, I guess the new CEO of Apple.
But I refuse to believe that these geniuses of executives have not spent every waken moment of the last 69 12 months thinking about every single scenario that could go wrong as they try and build out this compute this these data centers all of this infrastructure spending hundreds of billions of dollars each on trying to achieve that.
但我拒绝相信的是，像 Anthropic 这样年化经常性收入达到千亿美元级别的公司，或者像 Microsoft、Meta 或 Amazon 这样说着“是啊，老兄，到本十年末我们要做到一万亿美元”的公司——有机会让你知道我们的利润率从未如此之高，或者你知道我们的积压订单表现惊人，就像 Google 的所有这些情况——我拒绝相信这些公司真的处于那种你知道的濒临破产、归零的境地，而其他一些经历过这些泡沫周期的名字确实如此，并且此刻正在经历。
But what I refuse to believe is that companies like Anthropic who are on hundred billion annual recurring revenue run rates, right? Or companies like Microsoft or Meta or Amazon that are saying, "Yeah, dude.
We're going to go do a trillion dollars by the end of this decade." there's an opportunity to make you know our margins have never been higher or you know what our backlog is crushing it like all this stuff with Google right I refuse to believe that those companies are in true like you know dire bankrupt going to zero type vibes like some of the other names that have gone through these bubble cycles certainly are and are going through at the moment
每个人都在用 Microsoft 360，对吧？那是一个独立于任何数据中心、任何东西之外的持久业务。
Every single person uses Microsoft 360, right? Like that's a durable business outside of any data center, anything.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Rich Habits 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。