$MSFT · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-05
MSFT 在超大规模云与产能方面落后于两家同行,产能延迟也限制了营收,但营收增长19%、营业利润增长21%;AI 支出使利润增速降至与营收大致一比一,而历史上曾超过30%,不过利润率仍高于50%。在四家同行中,只有它实现正自由现金流,同时保持近20%的增长(186亿美元),其谨慎的 AI 支出让它暂时领先——但究竟是谨慎更好,还是对手的激进更好,仍未有定论。
逐段跳播
微软报告营收为923亿美元,同比增长19%。但到目前为止,微软在超大规模云计算领域仍落后于两家同行。不过,微软投资的类别与一些同行不同,其战略也略有差异。
Microsoft reported revenues of $92.3 billion, an increase of 19% compared to the same quarter last year. But so far, Microsoft remains behind two of its peers in the field of ultra-large-scale cloud computing.
However, Microsoft invests in different categories than some of its peers, and its strategy is slightly different.
事实上,它是少数几家、也是这四家中唯一一家在营收增长接近20%的同时产生正自由现金流的公司。此外,其营业利润同比增长21%。
In fact, it is one of the few companies, indeed the only one among these four, that generates positive free cash flow with revenue growth approaching 20%. In addition, its operating income increased by 21% compared to the same period last year.
从历史上看,通常情况下,当微软报告19%的营收增长时,其营业利润增长能达到30%或以上,因为在正常时期,公司的成本增长幅度不如营收增长幅度大。
Typically, and historically, when Microsoft reports revenue growth of 19%, it achieves operating income growth of 30% or more, because the company's costs do not increase as much as its revenue increases in normal times.
但目前,他们正在投资并加速投资人工智能,增强其在这一领域的能力,导致利润增长与营收增长之比接近一比一。不过,微软仍是一家盈利能力很强的公司,营业利润率超过50%,同比略有上升。
But right now, they are investing and accelerating investments in artificial intelligence and enhancing their capabilities in this area, resulting in a profit growth to revenue growth ratio closer to one to one.
However, Microsoft remains a highly profitable company with operating profit margins exceeding 50%, which represents a slight year-on-year increase.
所以,每100美元销售额中,想象一下你能净赚50美元利润。这基本上就是微软在这里所做的。但这很好地近似反映了这家公司在如此巨大规模下的盈利能力。
So, out of every $100 in sales, imagine you're pocketing $50 in profit. This is essentially what Microsoft is doing here. but it's a good approximation of the profitability at which this company operates on such a huge scale.
如果不是因为部分数据中心产能交付延迟,微软的营收本可以更好。他们的资本支出总计452亿美元,因为一些他们原本预计在第一季度交付的第三方产能出现了延迟。
Microsoft's revenue would have been better if it weren't for the delays in providing some data center capacity. Their capital expenditures totaled $45.2 billion, as some capacity deliveries from third parties that they had anticipated in the first quarter were delayed.
记住,微软的需求大于供给,所以一旦它建成或获得这些算力,就能从中产生收入。他们已经有数千亿美元的积压订单。许多客户在排队等待使用这些算力。
Remember that Microsoft has more demand than supply, so once it builds or acquires this computing power, it can generate revenue from it. They already have hundreds of billions of dollars in backlogged orders.
There are many customers waiting in line to use this computing power.
因此,当出现延迟时,它只是推迟了收入,而不是更早地产生收入。
Therefore, when a delay occurs, it delays revenues instead of generating them sooner.
可以说,近几个季度微软最令人印象深刻、最积极的方面是公司的自由现金流。而微软仍处于有利地位。事实上,在最近结束的季度中,他们产生了580亿美元的运营现金流,同比增长29%。
Arguably, what is most impressive and positive about Microsoft in recent quarters is the company's free cash flow. While Microsoft remains in a positive position. In fact, in the most recent quarter that ended, they generated $58 billion in cash flow from operations, a 29% year-over-year increase.
如果按年计算,每年将产生约2400亿美元的运营现金流。尽管支出很大,他们仍产生了186亿美元的自由现金流。
If we calculate that on an annual basis, it would generate approximately $240 billion in cash flow from operations per year. Despite spending a lot, they still generate free cash flow of $18.6 billion.
这让它们领先于竞争对手,这一点投资者很认可,因为该公司对AI投资周期采取了更为谨慎的态度,而不是把投资加速到自由现金流变为负值的程度。
This puts them ahead of their competitors, something investors appreciate, as the company takes a more cautious approach to the AI investment cycle rather than accelerating investments to the point where its free cash flow becomes negative.
我以前就说过,我不理解它的一些竞争对手为何如此急于花钱,以至于产生了大幅为负的自由现金流。最好的做法是尽可能多、尽可能快地花钱,还是微软这种更谨慎、更平衡的做法更好;
I have said before that I do not understand the haste with which some of its competitors spend, to the point that they generate a substantially negative free cash flow. whether the best approach was to spend as much as possible and as quickly as possible, or whether Microsoft's approach was better by being more cautious and balanced;
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 10 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。