$MSFT · Schwab Network · 2026-11-06
MSFT 今年表现反复，但尽管昨日大幅下跌，仍接近 52 周高点，并在年度图表上处于高位。只要维持在 530 美元这一前期突破位上方，过去一年买入者就仍处于盈利状态；若跌破 500 出头（504 为关键低点），则该观点失效。说话者预计，若情况在年底及进入 2027 年时发生变化，股价将进一步上涨。
逐段跳播
你今天还有另一家云计算巨头。你的三大公司中的第三选择是 Microsoft。这又是一场韧性游戏吗？在昨天的科技股抛售中，我们没有看到它们受到严重影响？
And you have another cloud computing giant here today. You have Microsoft as your third choice among the Big Three companies. Is this another game of resilience where we didn't see them heavily affected in yesterday's tech stock sell-off?
你好，你总是比我快一步，Marley。但是的，我是说这几乎是同样的想法。学习，说到 Amazon 的评论。现在，很明显 Microsoft 不是零售公司，而是一家拥有庞大基础设施的云计算巨头。
我喜欢这一点的地方，尤其是从技术角度看，是看以一日为单位的年度图表；Microsoft 今年的表现并不一致。事实上，这只股票经历了显著的抛售压力，也有跳涨。但如果你看图表的最左边，即使在昨天之后、大选之后以及我们看到的 all 新闻流之后，这只股票仍然很高，最近还创下52周新高。
但如果你回溯一年，按年度计算这只股票仍然很高，并且已回落至530美元水平，即之前的突破水平，几乎回到年初五十出头的水平。我是说，过去一年交易这只股票的任何人，如果在那段期间买入，理论上只要股票保持在这些水平之上就处于盈利位置。
但如果跌破500出头的水平，这个想法就失效了。正如我不断说的，我们始终尊重图表，但我只是看到这样一个事实：股票昨天大幅下跌，尽管 Microsoft 今年经历了所有这些混乱，但看年度图表时股票仍然很高。
如果事情最终在年底甚至进入2027年发生变化，正如我在开场陈述中提到的，我相信这为股票进一步上涨奠定了基础。
Hello, you're always one step ahead of me, Marley. But yes, I mean it's almost the same idea. Learn, when it comes to Amazon reviews. Now, it is clear that Microsoft is not a retail company, but a cloud computing giant with a massive infrastructure.
What I like about this, especially from a technical standpoint, is looking at the chart for one year on a one-day basis; Microsoft's performance has been inconsistent this year.
In fact, the stock has seen significant selling pressure, as well as jumps. But if you look at the far left of the chart, even after yesterday, after the election, and after all the news flow we 've seen, the stock is still high, and recently set new 52-week highs.
But if you go back a year, the stock is still high on an annual basis, and has fallen back to the $530 level, the previous breakout level, to almost return to the levels at the beginning of the year in the early fifties .
I mean, anyone who traded this stock during the past year, if they bought during that period , is theoretically in a winning position as long as the stock remains above these levels.
But if it breaks below the lower 500 levels, the idea becomes invalid. We always respect the chart, as I constantly say, but I'm just looking at the fact that the stock fell sharply yesterday, and despite all the chaos this year at Microsoft, the stock is still high when you look at the yearly chart.
And if things eventually change towards the end of the year and even into 2027, as I mentioned in the opening statement, I believe this sets the stock up for further gains .
嗯，还有进一步上行的潜力，我们在这里至少关注500水平，Rick。在技术分析中，这里什么吸引了你的注意，你是否也认为500出头的水平作为股票可能向下突破的潜在区域很重要？
Well, there's potential for further upside, and we're watching the 500 level as a minimum here, Rick. In technical analysis, what catches your attention here, and do you also see the importance of the lower 500 levels as a potential area that the stock might break downwards?
是的，我在这里特别关注的水平是504。原因是它最近是一个显著的低点。它也是我们在10月底财报公布后记录的最低水平。所以，这对我来说是最突出的水平，但我也要说485是另一个低点，价格跳空后的水平也在475。
价格缺口之所以有用，是因为它们通常表明股价在这里发生了某种基本面变化。是的，我们还可以看到这里形成的另一个缺口。这是我们迄今为止达到最低点的水平，523。一个很好的例子是，缺口已经回补，现在价格似乎出现了小幅反弹。
我们还可以在价格走势中观察到这里的三角形形态。我们已经向上突破并达到559附近的新高。现在，看起来在轻微回调后，我们可能再次突破那条趋势线。所以，这里也是一个有趣的发展。这里还有一个缺口，抱歉，缺口的初始低点已经在这里被跌破。
所以现在542水平凸显出来，我们那里的红线，作为必须向上跨越的标志。这里还有另一个峰值在552附近。当我们现在考虑移动平均线时，我们正在上穿两条最短的均线，分别是深蓝色和青绿色的5日和21日均线。
因此，我们可能会看到这些水平变成潜在支撑。尤其是5日移动平均线，因为它与我们的趋势线在约535水平一致。相对强弱指数（RSI）尚未与我们配合。我们在50中线上方，但未能突破这里的下降趋势线。
关于这里的成交量分布，我们在525到536之间有一个较小的节点。我们这里最大的节点，比我们在当前活动附近看到的任何东西都大得多，位于475到510之间。所以，关注这些区域作为潜在支撑水平。
Yes, the level I'm specifically focusing on here is 504. The reason is that it has been a notable low level recently. It was also the lowest level we recorded after the earnings announcement in late October here.
So, this is the most prominent level for me, but I would also say that 485 was another low level, and the level after the price gap was also at 475. Price gaps are useful for this reason, because they often indicate some kind of fundamental change in the stock price here.
Yes, we can also see another gap that has formed here. This is the level at which we have reached our lowest point so far, 523. A good example of what I am talking about is that the gap has been closed, and now the price appears to be getting a slight bounce.
We can also observe this triangular shape here in our price movement. We have already broken upwards and reached these new highs near 559. Now, it looks like after a slight pullback, we may break through that trend line again.
So, an interesting development here as well . Another gap here, sorry, the initial low point of the gap has been broken here. So now the 542 level stands out, our red line there, as a sign that must be crossed upwards.
Another peak here near 552. When we think about the moving averages now, we are crossing over our two shortest averages, the 5-day and 21-day ones in dark blue and turquoise respectively.
Therefore, we may see those levels turn into potential support. Especially the 5-day moving average, as it aligns with our trend line at approximately the 535 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet cooperated with us .
We are above the 50 midline, but we have not succeeded in breaking through the downtrend line here . Regarding the size profile here, we have a smaller node between 525 and 536.
Our largest node here, which is much larger than anything else we see near our current activity, is located between 475 and 510. So, watch these areas as potential support levels.
好。我们现在在538.19水平。我们上涨了0.4%。所以，与市场其他部分一致，这里涨幅可能略低。
Good. We are now at the 538.19 level. We are up by 4 tenths of a percent. So, in line with the rest of the market, perhaps with slightly lower gains here.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 27 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。