$MSFT · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-06
在最新一季财报后，MSFT 被上调为买入机会，但信心仅为中等：说话者的 DCF 公允价值升至 587 美元，而市价为 527 美元，计入安全边际后约低估 11.4%；远期市盈率 22 倍，略低于其自 2024 年初以来的平均水平。此前的下调评级，是因为他认为股价从 7 月到 10 月由 350 美元涨至 550 美元的涨幅属于过度乐观。风险仍在于 OpenAI 相关承诺以及 Windows/消费电子业务，其中 OEM 收入下降 27%，且预计下一季度需求更弱。
逐段跳播
在季度财报发布之前，微软股票并不在我的买入名单上。你可能还记得，几周前我下调了它的评级，因为股价在7月到10月之间从每股350美元涨到了550美元。当时我认为这一市场价格的上涨略显夸张，源于市场过度的热情。
Prior to the release of the quarterly financial results, Microsoft stock was not on my buy list. You may recall that a few weeks ago I downgraded it because the stock price jumped from $350 to $550 per share between July and October .
This rise in the market price was considered slightly exaggerated and stemmed from excessive enthusiasm on the part of the market.
公司公布了季度财报。该股目前报529美元，较550美元略有下跌，但这份最新季报让我们从微软那里获得了大量新信息。我利用这些信息更新了对微软股票的合理价值估算，将其纳入我的现金流折现估值模型，并更新了我对微软现在应该怎么做的建议——是买入、持有还是卖出。
The company announced its quarterly financial results. The stock is currently trading at $529, slightly down from $550, but we got a lot of new information from Microsoft in this latest quarterly report .
I have used this information to update my fair value estimate for Microsoft stock, incorporate it into my discounted cash flow valuation model , and update my recommendation on what I think should be done with Microsoft now, whether to buy, hold, or sell.
我一直密切关注的数据之一是剩余履约义务的金额。这些是微软与客户签订的合同，最终将在其云计算业务中转化为收入。这个数字，即“CRPO”，增长了73%，达到6770亿。
One of the numbers I've been watching closely is the number of remaining performance commitments. These are contracts that Microsoft has signed with customers that will eventually turn into revenue in its cloud computing sector .
This figure, "CRPO", rose by 73 % to reach 677 billion.
现在，这个数字引发了大量担忧，因为其中很大一部分被分配给了OpenAI或来自OpenAI，而且人们越来越担心这项业务不可持续；他们在大量亏损，这可能迫使他们修改承诺，也许会延长、推迟、暂时中止、取消，或以任何方式不支付他们同意支付给微软的钱。
Now, there is a lot of concern about this figure because a large proportion of it is allocated to or coming from OpenAI, and there is growing concern that this business is not sustainable; They are losing a lot of money, which may force them to modify their commitments, and perhaps extend, postpone, temporarily suspend, cancel , or in any way, not pay what they agreed to pay Microsoft.
这些风险时起时落，不是吗？市场对OpenAI与微软之间关系的担忧，在极度担忧与毫不担忧之间来回波动。
These risks were rising and falling, weren't they ? Market concerns about this relationship between OpenAI and Microsoft have fluctuated between extreme concern and lack of concern.
所以，如果OpenAI的数据在某种程度上接近Anthropic的数据，那对微软来说是非常积极的。OpenAI即将进行的首次公开募股对微软也将非常积极。这会在一定程度上缓解投资者的担忧，因为我们将获得更多信息，而更多信息总能降低风险，因为当你知道实际数字时，就能减少估算中的不确定性。
So, if OpenAI's numbers are in any way close to Anthropic's, that's very positive for Microsoft . The upcoming initial public offering of OpenAI will also be very positive for Microsoft.
This will calm investors' fears somewhat, because we will have more information, and more information always reduces risk, as you can reduce uncertainty in your estimates when you know the actual figures.
这些合同的加权平均期限也很重要。你想知道这批积压的工作需要多长时间才能转化为收入，答案是2.3年，其中约30%将在未来十二个月内确认为收入。因此，6770亿中约有2250亿将在未来十二个月内转化为收入。
所以，这是公司已经签约锁定的收入。公司只需要建设必要的产能，以满足这些客户的需求。
The weighted average duration of these contracts is also important. You want to know how long it will take for this backlog of work to turn into revenue, which is 2.3 years, and approximately 30% of it will be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months .
Therefore, approximately 225 billion out of 677 billion will be converted into revenue over the next twelve months. So, this is revenue that the company has already contracted for.
All the company needs is to build the capacity necessary to meet the demand of these customers.
但对微软来说，并非一切都很乐观光明。内存和处理器价格高企正在导致消费电子行业下滑。面向原始设备制造商（OEM）的Windows操作系统收入低于预期，而预期本来就已经很差，同比下跌了27%。
更糟的是，管理团队预计电脑需求还会更弱。库存水平仍然很高，这意味着Best Buy、Amazon等销售这些设备的商店库存高企，所以他们不会再下更多订单，因为他们的库存已经超过所需。
事实上，微软预计该板块的下滑在下一季度还会加剧。
But, it's not all rosy and bright for Microsoft. High prices for memory and processors are causing a decline in the consumer electronics industry. Windows operating system revenue for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs ) came in below expectations, which were already poor , and fell by 27% compared to the same period last year.
To make matters worse, the management team anticipates even weaker demand for computers. Inventory levels are still high, which means that Best Buy, Amazon and other stores that sell these devices have high inventory levels, so they won't order more because they already have more than they need.
In fact, Microsoft expects the decline in this sector to worsen during the next quarter .
因此，他们在人工智能领域一片繁荣，因为一切与人工智能相关的东西都在增长，而所有与实体消费电子相关的板块，如电脑硬件、Windows和游戏，却因为那些推动人工智能需求繁荣的因素而遭受冲击。
由于内存价格高企，而这些正是制造这些消费电子产品所用的同一批零部件，他们不得不提高这些电子产品的价格。当然，在需求并未增长的时候提价，你提价只是因为成本在上升，这当然会导致消费者购买减少。
这种情况已经在发生，而且这种局面很可能至少在未来几个季度持续下去。
Therefore, they have a boom in the artificial intelligence sector , as everything related to artificial intelligence is growing, while all sectors related to physical consumer electronics , such as computer hardware, Windows, and gaming, are suffering as a result of the factors that are causing the boom in demand for artificial intelligence.
Since memory prices are high , and these are the same components that go into manufacturing these consumer electronics, they have had to raise the prices of these electronics. Of course, when you raise prices at a time when demand is not growing, you are only raising them because your costs are increasing, and of course this will lead to a decrease in consumer purchases.
This is already happening, and this situation is likely to continue for at least the next several quarters.
微软股票目前的远期市盈率为22倍，略低于自2024年初以来该股按这一指标交易的平均估值。
Microsoft shares are now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22, which is slightly below the average valuation at which they have been trading according to this metric since early 2024.
我还对微软的现金流折现模型做了一些修订，总体而言，这使得我对微软的合理价值估算有所提高。我现在对公司的估值为每股587美元，而当前市场价格为527美元。在考虑安全边际之后，该股似乎略微被低估。
市场价格与我对内在价值的估算之间相差约11.4%。
I have also updated Microsoft's discounted cash flow model with some revisions, and overall this has resulted in a higher fair value estimate for Microsoft. I now value the company at $587 per share, compared to the current market price of $527.
The stock appears to be slightly undervalued after taking the margin of safety into account. There is a difference of approximately 11.4% between the market price and my estimate of the intrinsic value.
我提到过，几周前我下调了微软的股票评级，因为市场价格大幅上涨，超过了公司的盈利增长和现金流。但在看到微软在刚刚结束的这个季度的表现后，我会将该股上调为买入机会。不过，我对这个买入机会的信心并不高。在这件事上我的信心程度是中等。
I mentioned that I downgraded Microsoft's stock rating a few weeks ago because the market price had risen significantly, outpacing the company's earnings growth and cash flow. But after what I saw from Microsoft in this recently concluded quarter, I would upgrade the stock to a buy opportunity.
But I don't have a high level of conviction about this buying opportunity. I have a moderate level of conviction on this matter.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 10 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。