MSGS 被低估;其两支主要体育球队 100 亿美元的隐含估值,显著低于近期市场可比交易(湖人队 120 亿美元、岛人队少数股权 30 亿美元)。
逐段跳播
是的,MSGS 对你们来说是一项长期投资。是的,MSGS 这只股票对我们来说表现很好。我先简单介绍一下它的背景。它最初是一家名为 Cablevision 的公司的一部分,由 Dolan 家族控制。
大家都喜欢讨厌 Dolan 家族,但他们在 2010 年把 MSG 拆分了出来,当时 MSG 包含麦迪逊广场花园。我再往前说一步。他们在 1992 年或 1993 年以几亿美元买下了 MSG。
Yes, MSGS was a long-term investment for you. Yes, MSGS stock was great for us. Let me give you a quick background on it . Originally, it was part of a company called Cablevision, which was controlled by the Dolan family.
Everyone loves to hate the Dolan family, but they split up MSG in 2010, which consisted of Madison Square Garden. I will take another step back. They bought MSG in 1992 or 1993 for a few hundred million dollars.
这包括尼克斯队、游骑兵队、无线电城音乐厅、麦迪逊广场花园整体,以及许多其他优质资产。所以,他们在 2010 年把这一切都拆分了,自那以后他们一次又一次地拆分,现在你有了 MSG Sports,它只包含尼克斯队和游骑兵队。
This included the Knicks, the Rangers, Radio City Music Hall, Madison Square Garden in general, and many other great assets. So, they split it all up in 2010, and since then they've done split after split, and now you have MSG Sports, which only includes the Knicks and Rangers.
这块基础资产估值为 100 亿美元。所以,你可以用 100 亿美元买下这两支球队。昨天,他们宣布出售岛人队的一笔少数股权,这支球队不如另外两支那么有声望,售价为 30 亿美元。
湖人队以 120 亿美元售出,我认为那是一笔被迫的出售。我的意思是,我认为那个人是被迫出售的,而且非常迅速。因此,你能用 100 亿美元买下尼克斯队和游骑兵队这两支球队,这件事毫无逻辑可言。
The foundation is valued at $10 billion. So, you could buy both teams for $10 billion. Yesterday , they announced the sale of a minority stake in the Islanders, a team not as prestigious as the other two, for $3 billion.
The Lakers were sold for $12 billion in what I consider a forced sale. I mean, I think that guy was forced to sell, and very quickly. Therefore, there is no logic in the fact that you can buy the Knicks and Rangers teams for $10 billion .
那么,Dolan 家族正在做什么来释放价值?在 10 月的某个时候,他们会把它们拆分成两家独立的公司。你将拥有纽约尼克斯队,然后你将拥有纽约游骑兵队。这样一来,投资者可以同时买入两者,这将有助于凸显估值差距。
它还能做到的是,你想要一项专注于篮球的投资,是的。一项专注于冰球的投资。嗯,但也会有分别的买家来买它们。做一笔价值五六十亿美元的交易要容易得多。买冰球队的人以及……正是如此。正是如此。
So, what are the Dolan family doing to help unleash value? Sometime in October, they will split them into two separate companies. You'll have the New York Knickerbockers, and then you'll have the New York Rangers.
In this way, investors can buy both, and this will help to highlight the valuation gap. What it also does is you want a specialized investment in basketball, yes. An investment specializing in hockey.
Well, but there are also separate buyers for them. It is much easier to make a deal worth five or six billion dollars. People who buy hockey teams and... exactly. exactly.
我相信他们对尼克斯队会做的是,在拆分的同时或拆分后不久,出售这两支球队中一支或两支的少数股权。我认为这完全合理,然后他们可以用所得资金回购股票。
I believe what they will do with the Knicks is sell a minority stake in one or both of these teams concurrently with the split or shortly afterward . I think this makes perfect sense, and they can then use the proceeds to buy back shares.
我相信这将会发生,此外还有一项生效的税法,即第 162 条规则,它基本上规定,如果你是一家在美国公开上市的公司,你就不能为所得税目的扣除你薪酬最高的五名员工的薪水。所以尼克斯队是唯一一支公开上市的体育球队,猛龙队有点类似,但它们是更大公司的一部分。
这让他们处于显著的竞争劣势。如果你的前五名球员赚 1.5 亿美元,而你不能为所得税目的扣除这笔钱,而你的总收益是 1.8 亿美元,那就是一个真正的问题。所以他们可能不得不卖掉,或者法律可能会被修改,但在这届国会修改法律极其困难。那里可能发生的事情有很多。
I believe that is what will happen , in addition to the existence of a tax law in effect, Rule 162, which essentially states that if you are a publicly traded company in the United States, you cannot deduct the salaries of your top five employees for income tax purposes.
So the Knicks are the only publicly traded sports team, and the Raptors are somewhat like that , but they are part of a larger company. This puts them at a significant competitive disadvantage .
If your top five players earn $150 million and you can't deduct that for income tax purposes , and your total earnings are $180 million, then that's a real problem. So they may have to sell or the law may be changed, but changing laws in this Congress is extremely difficult. There are many things that could happen there.
观察点
这个频道对 $MSGS 的历次判断
The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。