$MSTR

MSTR 跌破了周四低点,走势弱于比特币;他认为该低点被跌破后偏向下行,并不看涨。在彻底走坏之前可能先回测高点,但眼下倾向走低。若看跌浪型成立,预期先反弹至 160,随后跌入 30 多;目前尚不明朗。

看跌他说的是几周内
《Is Bitcoin Setting Up for a Run Toward $100K?》
ElliottWaveTrader发布 2026-10-19 · 6 段内容
30:04/ —打开原视频

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6 段内容
30:0431:56

他在做什么,在我自己的东西里。但我看涨。他看跌。我只想说,图表混乱的时候就会这样。这张图表绝对是混乱的。话虽如此,如果周四低点被跌破,我就不会看涨了。那是,让我看看。看起来是 166 56。

what he's doing my in my own stuff. But I'm bullish. He's bearish. Um, I would just say that happens when charts are messy. This chart is definitely messy. That said, um, I'm not going to be bullish if the Thursday low is taken out. That's uh, let's see. That looks like 166 56.

所以这算是我心目中的最后机会。也许还有一次机会。也许它会跌到区间低点然后重新构筑形态。它尝试再次构筑形态。我不知道。总是有可能的,但现在这是它在下一次熊市周期之前达到 200、300 的最后一次明确机会。所以,我们看看它会怎么构筑。

Um, so this is sort of the last chance for at least in my mind. Maybe there's maybe it takes another chance. Maybe it goes to range lows and gets set up. It tries to get set up again.

I don't know. It's always possible, but um this is the last um clear chance right now for this one to get to 200 300 uh before the next bare cycle in this um but yeah, so we'll see how this sets up.

再说一次,周四低点是关键。我强调它主要是因为我写过关于它的文章。我有点把这张图钉住了,不是每个微观层面,而是我在宏观层面上一直钉着它,也钉了一些更短期的部分。所以它对我来说一直是一张非常好、很扎实的图。

但这并不意味着我过去对了,未来就总是对的,不过它最近确实是一张好图。

Again, Thursday low is key. And I'm just highlighting it mainly because I've done articles on it. I've I've kind of pinned this uh chart not so much on every micro level, but I've had it pinned on the sort of macro level um uh with with some some some pinning of it, you know, more short term as well.

So, it's been a very great a good solid chart for me. Um, that doesn't mean I'm always going to be right in the future just because I've been right in the past, but um but it's been a good one of late.

MCR 我提一下,是因为我们在这个区域做了一笔不错的空单,因为我们有一个不错的区间拒绝。那是一笔交易,至少我把它作为短信发出来了,那是杠杆做空基金。所以我们享受了这笔交易。上周末止盈了。

我想我们,我在这个低点取了一半利润,然后剩下的在这个低点平掉。对短线来说这是一笔非常好的交易。

Um MCR I'm just bringing up because um we had a nice short we had a nice short out of this zone because we had a nice range rejection. Uh it was a trade in at least I posted it as an SMS which is the leveraged bare fund.

So, we've enjoyed that. Took profit in the end of the week. I think we took I took half profit like in this low and then the rest down in this low. It was a very good trade for the short term.

图表仍然相当不清晰。不过,我的看法是,我们又有了一个中期高点,而比特币到目前为止守住了更高的低点。这个却跌破了周四低点。所以这告诉我,它仍然比比特币弱得多,我预期会更低。它总是有可能在彻底崩掉之前再次尝试向上触及这个高点。

话虽如此,眼下它准备走低,所以我们看看下周它是否会继续。

Um it's still fairly unclear chart. However, the way I see this is we've got another intermediate high where Bitcoin has uh hold a higher low so far. This one has busted the Thursday low.

So that says to me this one's considerably weaker than Bitcoin still and I expect lower. Uh it's always possible that it um reaches tries to reach up for this high again before it completely craps out.

Uh that said, right now at the immediate that's poised to go lower and so we'll see if it continues into the next week.

关于蓝色和红色的对比。现在红色是一个非常看跌的计数。如果红色成立,我会预期在 160 附近出现一个二,然后这东西会跌到 30 多。仍然没有任何清晰度。不过看起来它正在出现。所以如果我们跌到 126 然后强势反转,好,那将是五浪。

那将是红色。如果我们一路跌到 118 或略低一点,那很有可能是四。当然,如果它那样走,它需要在附近相当快地反转。

Um in terms of blue versus uh red. Now red is a very bearish count. I would expect a two to show up around 160 and for this thing drop out down to the 30s if red is playing out.

Uh still don't have any clarity. However, um it's coming up it looks like. So if we have a drop to 126 and then a strong reversal, okay, that will be five waves. That will be red.

If we drop all the way to 118 or low a little bit lower, that's a good chance of being four. So what and and of course if you do if it does that, it's going to need to reverse pretty quickly around

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