预计美光（MU）短期业绩表现强劲，但因其处于周期后段且价格可能见顶，估值被视为存在风险。
逐段跳播
在今晚讨论 Micron 的财报之前，我们先来看一下存储市场的当前状况。你会如何描述当前的供需环境？是什么在推动我们在这些公司身上看到的强劲表现？
Before we get into Micron's earnings tonight, let's take a look at the current state of the memory market . How would you describe the current supply and demand environment, and what is driving the strong performance we are seeing in these companies?
我能说的最好情况是，这只股票已经没了。订单簿几乎满了。需求很高。我认为，大型云计算公司正在订购大量这类产品，把存储与芯片放在一起，而且在美国以及全球的每一个数据中心都是如此。
Well, the best I can say is that the stock is gone. The order books are almost full. There is high demand. I think that giant cloud computing companies are ordering huge quantities of these products, putting memory alongside chips, and doing so in every data center in America, as well as globally.
事实上，只有三家公司做这件事。我们有 Micron，还有韩国公司。我希望 Micron 能更多地关注直接面向消费者的销售；它去年有点放弃了这块业务，转而专注于云计算巨头。
In fact, there are only three companies that do this. We have Micron, and Korean companies. I wish Micron would focus more on direct-to-consumer sales; it kind of abandoned that last year to focus on cloud computing giants .
William，看看你公司的估值。该股定价为 850 美元，而财报将于今天公布，与此同时我们的股价目前在 1073 美元左右交易。那么，你今天预期会从 Micron 那里听到什么？你预期市场会作何反应？
William, take a look at your company's valuation. The stock is priced at $850 as earnings are due to be announced today, while our shares are currently trading at around $1073.
So, what can you expect to hear from Micron today? What do you expect the market's reaction to be?
对于我们将于今晚发布的这一季度，以及从现在起的接下来两个季度，我们相信我们会看到惊人的业绩。我们预期今晚会出现大幅超预期，下一季度也会超预期，而且我们确实相信，这轮周期性的价格上涨还有充足的空间可以延续。
For the quarter we expect to publish tonight, and indeed for the next two quarters from now, we believe we will see amazing results. We expect a significant overshoot tonight, and an overshoot for the next quarter, and we truly believe there is ample room for this cyclical rise in prices to continue.
从长期来看，我们预期这些价格会在我们进入上半年时见顶，也可能是在 2028 年年中，届时 Micron、Samsung、SK Hynix 及其所有竞争对手将开始扩大生产，以满足 AI 巨头的巨大需求。
In the long term, we expect these prices to peak as we enter the first half of the year, and possibly mid-2028, when Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and all their competitors begin to ramp up production to meet the huge demand from AI giants .
这正是我们开始感到一些担忧的地方，也解释了我们对估值的悲观看法，因为我们认为我们正处于这轮上行周期的第六或第七阶段，对长期投资者而言存在显著的下行风险。
This is where we started to feel some concern, and this explains our pessimism about the valuation, as we believe that we are in the sixth or seventh stage of this upward cycle, and there are significant downside risks for long-term investors .
Yannis，我也想听听你对这件事的看法。正如我提到的，你可以看到我们几乎已经完全售罄。关于价格进一步上涨的预期以及它们可能在哪里见顶，你对此怎么看？
Yannis, I'd like to know your opinion on this as well. As I mentioned , you can see that we have almost completely sold out . Regarding expectations of further price increases and where they might peak, what is your view on that?
什么时候见顶并不确定。再说一次，现在有很多服务正在上线，而没有足够的空间来存储它们。我认为还有一点值得提，那就是《芯片法案》在 12 月取消了这类对股票回购的限制。存在巨大的机会，这可能为公司带来新的、多元化的现金流。
Well, it's not certain when it will peak. I mean , again, there are a lot of services coming online right now, and there isn't enough space to store them. I think there is another point worth mentioning, which is that the Chips Act eliminates this type of restriction on stock buybacks in December.
There are tremendous opportunities, which could lead to new and diversified cash flows into the company.
当然，市场最清楚。很多事情已经被定价了，但我仍然认为可能会有一些意外。William，我正在这里核对预测。我的意思是，我们预期 DRAM 收入同比增长超过 300%，NAND 收入增长 400%，而我们所看到的利润率在 80% 中段。哪个指标最能说明今天存储市场的状况？
Of course, the market knows best. Many things are already priced, but I still think there may be some surprises. William, I'm just reviewing the predictions here. I mean, we expect DRAM revenue to increase by more than 300% year-over-year, NAND revenue by 400%, and we're looking at profit margins in the mid-eighties.
Which indicator will best illustrate the state of the memory market today ?
是的，在现阶段所有数字都绝对惊人。但我们认为最值得关注的数字是季度价格增长。我们具体要寻找的是：我们是否开始注意到放缓？这些是异常亮眼的数字。我们在这里谈论的是这些收入每年数百个百分点的增长。
Yes, all the numbers are absolutely amazing at this stage. But we believe the most important figure to focus on is quarterly price growth. What we are specifically looking for is: Are we starting to notice a slowdown?
These were exceptional figures. We are talking here about hundreds of percentage points of annual growth for these revenues.
我们甚至看到 Micron 的 DRAM 和 NAND 价格环比增长了 80%。所以，我们要寻找的是这种增长保持强劲，但随时间推移开始略微下降，部分原因是我们预期消费者会因这些更高的价格而对需求弹性的变化作出反应。
We even saw Micron's DRAM and NAND prices grow by 80 % quarter-on-quarter . So, what we are looking for is for this growth to remain strong, but to start to decline slightly over time, partly because we expect consumers to respond to changes in demand elasticity as a result of these higher prices.
我们认为这可能是价格增长放缓的开始，但简而言之，我们预期价格增长在接下来三到四个季度仍将保持可观。
We believe this could be the beginning of a slowdown in price growth, but in short, we expect price growth to remain impressive over the next three or four quarters .
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 18 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。