美光(MU)的业绩与指引表现强劲,但未提供资本开支指引是近期波动的一大关键风险。
逐段跳播
好,我们直接进入正题。我们在每股收益上取得了显著改善。第四季度每股收益达到33.42美元,好于预期的31.83美元。
Okay, let's get straight to it. We have achieved a significant improvement in earnings per share . Earnings per share reached $33.42 in the fourth quarter, better than the expected $31.83.
看本季度的营收,我们也看到了约54.23美元的显著超预期,而预期大约在51.5美元。毛利率也好于预期,达到87%,而预期为86%。
Looking at the revenue for this quarter , we also saw a significant outperformance of approximately $54.23, while expectations were around $51.5. Gross profit margins also came in better than expected at 87%. While expectations were at 86%.
看其营收的构成,电话和客户部门的营收为131.1亿美元,而预期为129.5亿美元。汽车和嵌入式系统部门创造了68.2亿美元的营收。这远好于预期的47.3亿美元。
Looking at the breakdown of their revenues, the revenues from the telephone and customer segment amounted to $13.11 billion. While expectations were at 12.95 billion. The automotive and embedded systems sector generated $6.82 billion in revenue.
This is much better than the 4.73 billion that was expected.
云内存营收达到162.8亿美元,而预期为151.4亿美元。所以,我刚才提到的所有指标他都表现出色。现在看他们的未来指引,也同样高于分析师的共识。
Cloud memory revenues reached $16.28 billion. While expectations were at 15.14 billion. So, he excelled in all the metrics I just mentioned. Now, looking at their future projections, they also come in above the consensus of analysts.
对于第一季度,他们预计每股收益将继续增长。新的区间在37.15美元至39.15美元之间。此前的预估为36.02美元。因此,这一预估远低于每股收益的这一新区间。
For the first quarter, they expect earnings per share to continue growing . The new range is between $37.15 and $39.15. The estimate was $36.02. Therefore, the estimate is well below this new range for earnings per share.
关于营收,他们预计在600亿美元至630亿美元之间。此前的预估为567.7亿美元。这意味着将大幅超过这些数字。
Regarding revenue, they expect between $60 billion and $63 billion. The estimate was 56.77 billion. This means exceeding these figures significantly.
关于利润率,他们预计第一季度约为86.3%。这代表利润率略有下降,较当前的87%略有收窄。同时,也比预期低约40个基点,幅度不大。
Regarding margins, they expect around 86.3% for the first quarter. This represents a slight decrease in the margin, and a slight squeeze from the current 87%. Also, by a small margin, about 40 basis points lower than expected.
另外,我们刚刚拿到了本季度的数据中心营收,恰好为180亿美元。此前的预估为113.4亿美元。他们的营业利润达到446.4亿美元,而预期为427.5亿美元。
Also, we just got the data center revenue for this quarter, which came in at exactly $18 billion. The estimate was 11.34 billion. Their operating income reached $44.64 billion. While expectations were at 42.75 billion.
不过,看屏幕,我们正以非常小的幅度上涨,高于盈亏平衡水平。我同意你的看法。这实际上是一份非常好的财报。前瞻指引相对强劲。
However, look at the screen and we are rising by a very small percentage above the break-even level . I agree with you. This is actually a very good report. The forward guidance is relatively strong.
我认为财报开头关于投资的那段评论更多是关于扩张他们的业务,我只是在这里转述他们所说的话。我认为我们还没有得到下一阶段的资本支出指引。我认为这可能是你可能面临的最大障碍。
I think the comment at the beginning of the report about investment is more about expanding their business, and I am simply paraphrasing what they said here . I think we haven't received capital spending guidance for the next phase.
I think this could be the biggest obstacle you might face.
如果我们看到资本支出将大幅增加,以便他们扩张产能,可以说,或者花更多钱来帮助扩张这一产能,那么自由现金流可能会受到影响。
Free cash flow may be affected if we see that capital expenditures will increase significantly in order for them to expand their productive capacity, so to speak, or to spend more to help expand that capacity.
但这实际上是一份非常好的财报。在这份财报发布之前,预期非常高,Marley。在此之前我一直在关注期权流向,本周五到期的1300和1400看涨期权吸引了大量关注。我们说的是30%到40%的上涨。
But this is actually a very good report . Expectations were very high before this report was released, Marley. I had been monitoring the options flows prior to this, and the call options at 1300 and 1400 expiring this Friday were attracting significant attention.
We are talking about an upward movement of 30% to 40%.
所以,我认为市场确实希望看到非常强劲的向上反应。但这种价格溢价过高,也可能导致这些交易者被困在试图压低价格的操作中。
So, I think the market really wanted to see a very strong upward reaction. But too much of this price premium could also lead to these traders being locked into trying to push prices down.
因此,这至少在目前仍处于预期范围之内。我正在关注资本支出。如果他们讨论这个问题,可能会在集团电话会议上被提及。我认为这是唯一可能在该股盘后交易中引发一些波动的事情。
Therefore, this is within the expected range, at least for the time being. I am monitoring capital expenditures. It might be brought up in the group call if they discuss it. I think this is the only thing that might cause some volatility for this stock in post- closing trading.
我想读一下“KJ”刚才提到的美光董事长兼首席执行官的那段评论。他说,人工智能正在演变为“超级智能”(SI),萨姆在节目早些时候也提到过这一点。内存增强了这种智能,并提升了我们客户平台的竞争力。
我们正在加大对技术、产品和制造的投资,以帮助与客户共同推动超级智能向前发展,而我们与客户的战略协议也为美光财务表现的可持续性提供了更多信心。
I would like to read that comment that " KJ" just mentioned from the Chairman and CEO of Micron. He says that artificial intelligence is evolving into "superintelligence" ( SI), which Sam referred to earlier in the program.
Memory enhances this intelligence and increases the competitiveness of our clients' platforms . We are increasing our investments in technologies, products, and manufacturing to help drive hyperintelligence forward with our customers, and our strategic agreements with customers provide added confidence in the sustainability of Micron's financial performance.
他还谈到他们在2026年取得的创纪录业绩,但萨姆,我的意思是,“KG”说得有道理。我们这里没有资本支出的数字,所以这可能正是我们在等待的部分内容,但我刚给你读完那段话,我们现在已经上涨了1%。
He also talks about the record results they achieved in 2026 , but Sam, I mean, " KG" makes a good point. We do n't have a figure for capital expenditures here, so this may be part of what we're waiting for, but as soon as I read that to you, we're up by one percent now.
随着我们越来越接近公布这些财报,你对本周进行的这些对话有什么结论?投资者和分析师在寻找什么?战略客户协议这部分是一个主要焦点,我今天早些时候实际上和保罗·米克斯谈过,他从上世纪80年代该公司IPO以来就一直在跟踪这只股票,他说我们在上一季度基本上已经得到了一些相关线索:20%的收入来自这些长期协议。
What are your conclusions from the conversations you've had throughout the week as we get closer to announcing these earnings? What were investors and analysts looking for ? The strategic customer agreements part was a major focus, and I was actually speaking to Paul Meeks earlier today, who has been covering this stock since its IPO in the 1980s, and he said we basically got some hints about that in the previous quarter: that 20 % of revenue comes from these long- term deals.
该公司此前披露了大约16份与客户的战略协议。保罗想看看我们能否得到一个更高的百分比,因为公司表示可能会超过20%。他想知道这个百分比是否会超过50%,也就是说,超过总收入的一半。
The company previously disclosed approximately 16 strategic agreements with clients. Paul wants to see if we can get a higher percentage because the company indicated it might exceed 20%.
He wants to know if the percentage exceeds 50%, that is, more than half of the total revenue.
他说,一旦华尔街确信企业正更多地转向长期合同,我们可能会看到估值上升,因为我们知道它目前的远期市盈率为七倍,这是我们一直在讨论的事情。
He says that once Wall Street is convinced that businesses are leaning more towards long-term contracts, we may see a rise in valuations, because we know that it is currently trading at a futures price-to-earnings ratio of seven times, which is something we are constantly discussing.
但你看,我们毫无疑问地知道今天的结果会很好,你本可以问我们在节目中交谈过的任何一位分析师。这证明它是一家非周期性公司,以及它如何变得不那么周期性,因为我听到这是上升周期的第十四个季度。
通常只有八到九个季度。人工智能方面的支出似乎没有任何放缓,但这也关乎利润率。
But look, we knew without a doubt that the results would be good today, as you could have asked any analyst we spoke to on the show. It proves that it is an acyclical company, and how it has become less cyclical, as I was listening to the fact that this is the fourteenth quarter of the upward cycle.
It is usually eight to nine quarters . There doesn't seem to be any slowdown in spending on artificial intelligence, but it was also about profit margins.
这次超出预期87%。此前预计该百分比会高于86%。她只是想知道,她读到的修正后的第一季度数字略低于预期,现在是否仅仅因为预期上限如此之高而受到审视。
This time it exceeded expectations by 87%. It was expected that the percentage would be higher than 86% . She's just wondering if the revised first-quarter figure she read, which came in slightly below expectations, is now under scrutiny only because the ceiling of expectations was so high.
嘿,KGI,我正想问你这个问题。他们现在预计第一季度相比当前第四季度实现的87%会出现轻微放缓和利润率压缩,你对此有任何担忧吗?我相信他们给出的指引是86.3%,略低于86.7%的预期。这足以让你担忧吗?
Hey KGI, I was going to ask you this question. Do you have any concerns about the slight slowdown and margin squeeze they now expect for the first quarter compared to the 87% they achieved in the current fourth quarter?
They are giving guidance at 86.3 %, I believe, which was slightly lower than the 86.7% estimate. Is this enough to cause you concern?
我认为这完全取决于是什么影响了那个利润率。如果他们能给出合理解释,原因可能是运输成本,或者也许又是产能问题,或者他们会支付一小笔额外溢价。这完全取决于具体情况。如果他们能给出合理解释,我认为最终结果对他们来说会是积极的。你知道吗?
I think it simply depends on what affects that margin. If they can justify it, the reason may be transportation costs, or perhaps problems with production capacity again, or they will pay a small additional premium .
It just depends . If they can justify it , I think the end result will be positive for them. Do you know?
我也觉得这真的很有意思。出色的报告。汽车板块并不是这只股票的主要新闻驱动因素。我们知道这一点。但如果你看看他们在汽车板块的业务,它超出华尔街预期约20亿美元。这也是一个很棒的补充。
I find this really interesting as well. Excellent report. The automotive sector is not a major news driver for this name. We know that. But if you look at their business in the automotive sector, it has exceeded Wall Street's expectations by about $2 billion. That was also a great addition.
如果你把这一点排除掉,再看这个板块的表现,比如说,与华尔街预期一致,那么实际上在总收入层面上并没有大幅超出。我不是想贬低这家公司,但如果你看总收入整体,并非所有增长都真的来自数据中心。
事实上,其中很大一部分也来自汽车板块,这是没人注意到的事情,但我的意思是它代表了约68亿美元的销售额。所以当你审视整体数字时,这可以带来实实在在的差异。
If you exclude that and look at this sector coming in, let's say, in line with Wall Street's expectations, then in reality it wasn't a huge overshoot at the level of total revenues.
I'm not trying to belittle this company, but if you look at the total revenue as a whole, not all of that growth is really coming from data centers. In fact, much of that was also due to the automotive sector, which is something that no one notices, but I mean it represents sales of approximately $6.8 billion.
So that can make a tangible difference when you look at the overall figures.
是的,我们看到美光在这里围绕一个稳定水平持续波动。最大的问号仍然是资本支出。这些预测的估计范围从500亿美元到500亿美元,但我们大约20分钟后会听到管理层的说法,希望他们会披露这个数字。
Yes, we are seeing continued fluctuations around a stable level here for Micron. The biggest question mark remains over capital spending. Estimates range from $50 billion to $50 billion for what these projections could be, but we'll be hearing from the administration in about 20 minutes, and hopefully they will disclose that figure.
但眼下,美光股价在曾一度上涨1%之后,目前下跌约10%。
But right now, Micron shares are trading down about 10 percent after having been up as much as 1 percent.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 18 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。