Micron当前盈利强劲，但长期前景偏空，原因是半导体周期不可持续、预计收入将在12-24个月内见顶，以及CEO大量减持内部人持股。

If you own any semiconductor stocks, such as AMD, Nvidia, Micron or any of those stocks, I have big news for you today and we will discuss where semiconductor stocks are headed from now on.

There is also Micron. Now, Micron, one of the largest stocks in the entire stock market, has released its earnings report in the last hour or two. And what we've seen from them is incredible and, frankly, almost unprecedented so far, okay ?

The company's revenue increased by 379%, right? But something is wrong. Something is seriously wrong. Cost of goods sold increased by 15% ? 15%? Where income increased by 379% ? What? This is incredible!

The gross profit margin, oh my God ! The company's gross margin dollars increased 831% to $ 47 billion from $5 billion in the same quarter last year.

Research and development (R&D) increased by 83%. General, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by 173%. So, these numbers are really high, but when your gross margin dollars increase by 831%, who cares about these things anymore? It's literally nothing to you , right?

Now, there are other operating costs as well. It was quite big for the company. This was $524 million compared to $39 million in the same quarter last year. That's a 1,244% increase, but at the end of the day, it's all just a small amount, right?

Because operating income is still up about 1,100% compared to last year. 1,100% What? This is incredible. Operating income is about $44 billion, and this is much higher than the $3.6 billion in the same quarter last year.

I mean, it's simply incredible. Absolutely incredible.

Net income increased 1,078% to nearly $38 billion from $3.2 billion in the same quarter last year. And diluted EPS increased by 1,062%. The numbers are truly astonishing.

And that's why I gave Micron an A++ grade. I mean, you know , it's incredible. I don't know exactly how to say it. This is just incredible.

But remember, it's not that it will happen, it's just that it wasn't expected, okay? Everyone knew that Micron's revenue would be incredibly high. The only question was, how incredible would the numbers be ? How incredible will their predictions be ?

Listen, the forecast was $62 billion. Where the estimate was $58 billion. This is much more than expected. It's not exactly a stunning or unexpected success, but it's a pretty good success.

Over $4 billion , you know, is pretty impressive, right?

Also , their earnings per share (EPS) was 3815 against the expected 3592. Gross margin is also at expected levels. If you're interested in Micron, this EPS and gross margin are more or less as important.

But if you're interested in the overall semiconductor business , revenue volume is much more important. So, if you're even slightly interested in semiconductor stocks, the thing I'll take away from this is that the semiconductor business is very strong. There are no gaps in this report.

This is the kind of report where if a recession was predicted or was coming , its reflection would be seen in the number of microns. They could not meet their revenue targets, or even meet their forecasts.

But they failed to accomplish anything. They exceeded the target and exceeded it quite easily , right?

Again , it's not a big win that will surprise everyone, but they won quite easily. The situation is better than expected. And remember, when we're talking about Micron, they sell a lot of memory to companies like Nvidia and AMD for their various chipsets.

So, if things get much better for Micron, then first of all, that could mean prices, right ? But secondly, it could mean that demand is very high.

You might be wondering, what happened? The share price has fallen. You might think, " Hey, what's going on?" If you're a shareholder of Micron , and I know a lot of Micron shareholders, they're going to think, hey, what happened?

How did the share price fall , right? What happened? What should we do?

We have exceeded the target. We have exceeded our revenue target. We also exceeded our earnings per share target , right? The profit margin is also as good as possible. We exceeded revenue forecasts by $4 billion , and you know they will exceed forecasts as well.

So, the thing is, okay? Last quarter, 58 billion, the company was forecasting 62 billion , they'll probably reach 64 or 65 billion , right ? They will not only work in line with the target.

They will give a forecast that is definitely higher than Wall Street's forecast, but they are confident that they can probably beat it. So, yes, I think $ 63 billion is probably the worst-case scenario for next quarter, but they could also target $64 or $65 billion next quarter, right ?

And if you look at the PE ratios, you see the forward PE is at 10, some might argue that it could actually be at eight or nine now , right? Two years forward PE five, and you're thinking, "Hey, what's going on? What's going on here?"

In fact, the gist of this story is that no one believes that the numbers Micron is showing this year and next year will be sustainable in the long term. And no matter what your PE ratio is , it doesn't matter if investors do n't think it's sustainable.

If you invest in a company , you have to be confident that that company will make a lot more money in three years, five years, or seven years than what it's making now , right? In the case of Micron, you ca n't rely on it.

The thing is , maybe they will, but we know that we're in a huge semiconductor industry cycle now , right? We have been through this for several years. We know that it won't last forever.

The calculation doesn't add up, does it ? From different directions.

For example, just looking at the micron margin shows that the calculations are not correct. The calculations do n't even match Nvidia's current margins.

When we see these big tech companies already starting to take on debt , it's because they do n't even have enough free cash flow. Yet these are the largest and most powerful companies in the world.

They don't even have enough money to cover the costs of the chips they are buying now and the data centers they are building. The calculations do n't match. And in fact, they will have to take on a huge amount of debt next year. This whole situation does n't add up.

So, the gist of this story is that we've been in an incredible semiconductor boom cycle for several years now , and it's not sustainable in the long term. And so, we might have a big festival going on for another year or two, but at the end of the day, this festival has to end at some point, and that's why people are not willing to pay for Micron now.

It does n't matter whether Micron's revenue is $63 billion or $62.5 billion. In fact, at the end of the day, people do n't want to pay for Micron stock, even if it has a forward price of $5 billion, because people are looking at it and thinking, " In the next 12 to 24 months, revenue is probably going to peak , and then it's going to start to decline , margins are going to start to decline , and then what are you going to have?"

A stock whose price will continue to fall, and it will fall quite dramatically , right?

And so, that's what's happening with this particular stock right now, and frankly it's not the only thing happening in semiconductors , but you have to understand the memory side of the business, these are the least preferred stocks.

Like, people want to invest in these only for the short term , like the numbers have gone up like crazy , right ? But, people don't like these types of stocks in the long run. These are very cyclical investments, and when they do well, they do really well,

and that's why, let's say, if you had invested in Micron stock a year or two ago , you could have bought the shares for a little over a hundred , right? That means you have gained 10 times from it. What a great situation, right ?

No, I think there's another reason that's scaring people , and I don't know if you've seen this, but I want to dig a little deeper into what's going on here, okay ? Let me show you something.

So, the company's CEO has sold about $130 million worth of shares so far in 2026. That's a huge number. This is not a small number. $130 million means selling a lot of shares.

Yes. So, now, if you're optimistic about the company, you might look at this and say , "Well, that was part of a trading plan , right? I think the CEO got involved in it at the end of January of this year , right ?"

So, you might say, "Hey, nothing. There's no smoke here. No, everything's fine , right? He said at the end of January that he was going to sell a lot of shares , and they're just executing on that now.

" And the thing is , maybe he wants to buy some mansion or Ferrari, or who knows? Maybe you want to build a large farmhouse next to your house. I mean, you understand , and so, if you look at it from an optimistic perspective, you can consider this.

Sanjay, the CEO of this company, he knows this company very well , right? He knows that the stock is probably going to hit an all-time high sometime this year , and it's probably going to be a multi-year high , right? Or maybe early next year.

And take advantage of a time when a company like Micron is trading at a trillion-dollar-plus valuation, a valuation that, you know, people did n't really think was possible , right?"

Do you think that Sanjay knows that we are in a bubble period for his company , and that perhaps this year or early next year his company's stock has reached its highest level in several years , and when the stock price has risen abnormally, he is looking to sell as many shares as possible and get out , right? Or does he just want some money?