美光（MU）财报表现强劲，但股价因“完美已被充分定价”而面临短期回调；随着竞争对手可能入场，长期利润率的可持续性存疑。
逐段跳播
营收比去年同期高出四倍。因此，Micron 再次大幅超出预期。营收达到 542 亿美元。他们在利润方面也表现更佳。
Revenues were four times higher than last year. So, Micron has once again exceeded expectations spectacularly. Revenues reached $54.2 billion. They outperformed in profits.
总体而言，这份报告非常强劲。我们还必须记住，正如我提到的，这是存储芯片板块。所以，人们把 Micron 和 Nvidia 放在同一个话题里讨论。Nvidia 生产的芯片更多。Micron 也生产芯片，但它更专注于人工智能的存储方面，这一领域仍然非常健康、非常强劲，而且正如我提到的，他们在需求方面存在问题。
需求非常强劲，但供应非常受限。因此，他们拥有定价权，并且能够充分利用这一点，将其转化为自身优势，公司正在取得压倒性的成功。
Overall, this report was very strong. We must also remember, as I mentioned, that this is the memory sector. So, people put Micron and Nvidia in the same conversation. Nvidia is making more chips.
Micron makes chips, but it is more dedicated to the memory side of artificial intelligence, which is still very healthy and very strong, and as I mentioned, they have problems with demand.
Well, demand is very strong, but supply is very constrained. Therefore, they have pricing power, and they have been able to take full advantage of that and use it to their advantage, and the company is achieving overwhelming success.
所以，综合考虑，从大局来看，这份报告确实非常强劲。毫无疑问，整个存储芯片板块是一个非常强劲的领域，并持续创造可观的营收。
So, all things considered, in the big picture, this report was really very strong. There is no doubt that the memory sector as a whole is a very strong field and continues to generate significant revenue.
营收 542 亿美元，每股收益 33 美元，好于预期，而我们预计下一季度营收将达到 615 亿美元。为什么这还不足以推动股价上涨？
$54.2 billion in revenue, better-than-expected earnings per share of $33, and we expect $61.5 billion in revenue in the next quarter. Why isn't that enough to push the stock upwards?
听着，我们已经看到 Micron 基本上实现了乐观者所期望的东西，也就是对未来一两年的一种清晰展望。在我看来，这里仍然存在的问题是，这个周期的长度和可持续性。
Listen, I mean, we've seen that Micron has mostly delivered what the optimists were hoping for, which is a kind of clear vision for the next year or two. This still represents the question here, in my opinion, regarding the length and sustainability of this cycle.
但当我们看 Micron 时，听着，毛利率指引略显疲软，但我认为这是那种市场可能想要更多的情况。也许是宣布股票回购，或者展示他们到今年年底可以开始做的事情。我们没有得到这些，但总体而言我们基本得到了，考虑到一些已宣布的战略客户协议、订单增长以及诸如此类的东西，表现相当不错。
But when we look at Micron here, listen, the gross profit margin guidance was a little weak, but I think it's one of those cases where maybe the market wanted more. Perhaps something related to announcing a share buyback, or perhaps presenting what they could start doing by the end of this year.
We didn't get that, but we mostly did, when you consider some of the announced strategic customer agreements, the order book growth, and all that stuff, it was pretty great.
事实是，要让更多人相信这个关于利润率和价格可持续性的故事，还需要几个季度。是的，我的意思是，如果他们能长期维持这一水平，我会感到意外。归根结底，从长远来看，竞争对手会因为这么高的利润率而进入这个领域。
我相信它达到了 87%，这是 Micron 持续实现的惊人利润率。归根结底，如果需求哪怕略有下降，或者来自其他竞争对手、甚至来自 Micron 自身的供应增加，我认为未来都不会有这么高的利润率。
The truth is, it will take a few quarters before you gain more believers in this story regarding the sustainability of margins and prices. Yes, I mean I would be surprised if they could maintain it in the long term.
Ultimately, in the long run, competitors will enter this field because of these high margins. I believe it reached 87%, which are amazing margins that Micron has continued to achieve.
Ultimately, if you experience even a slight decline in demand or an increase in supply from other competitors or even from Micron itself, I don't think you'll get such high margins in the future.
但看这份报告，这些高利润率无疑帮助公司创造了可观的利润，并反映在净利润中。我认为，在这个阶段，完美主义已经成为预期，并已计入股价。所以，这就是棘手的地方，这也是我们今天很可能看到股价小幅下跌的原因。
你基于传闻买入，在听到消息时卖出，因为这些公司是以绝对的完美来被评估和定价的。更能驱动 Micron 这类公司的，是重大的宏观消息以及针对整个板块发布的重大公告，而不一定是这些市场与投资者要求其完美无瑕的财报。
即使财报完美，即使他们已经做到了 99%，他们也在寻找防线中的缺口，以便在消息正式发布时立刻卖出。
But looking at this report, those high margins certainly help the company generate significant profits that are reflected in net income. I believe that perfectionism has become expected and factored into stock prices at this stage.
So, this is the tricky part, and this is why we're likely to see the stock dip a little today. You buy based on rumors and sell when you hear the news, because these companies are evaluated and priced with absolute perfection.
What motivates a company like Micron more is the big macro news and the huge announcements that are made to the sector as a whole, and not necessarily these earnings reports that the market and investors demand be perfect and flawless.
Even if they are, even if they have covered 99% of the way, they are looking for gaps in the defenses to sell as soon as the news is officially released.
Angelo，你给 Micron 股票的目标价是 1500 美元。目前股价大约在 1046 美元，所以你预期涨幅超过 40%。要让股价支撑这样的估值，关键需要发生哪些事情？
And Angelo, you have a price target of $1500 here for Micron stock. Currently, the price is around $1046, so you are expecting an increase of more than 40%. What are the key things that need to happen for a stock to justify this type of valuation?
是的，我认为就此而言，评论“Meta”是我会采取的路径。我认为这不再只是关于超出预期和上调利润预测。我不这么认为；相反，我把它看作一个更符合展示从人工智能中获利这一故事的时期。
关键在于展示他们的客户能够证明，我们能够在展示更大规模的人工智能应用场景方面达到下一个层次。如果这发生了，整个人工智能体系将顺应这一趋势发展。所以，再一次，关键确实在于证明这种一致性，并能够在未来六到八个季度里至少维持其中一部分利润率。
我对此深信不疑。你无法长期维持 80% 中后期的毛利率，但你可能可以维持接近 70% 左右的利润率。如果我们能长期看到这样的环境，我认为这对长期投资者是个好兆头。但此时此刻，我认为更重要的是看到整个体系真正演进，并看到自由现金流继续展现它本季度刚刚展现出的表现。
Yes, I think that commenting on "Meta" is kind of the path I would take in this regard. I think it's no longer just about exceeding expectations and raising profit estimates. I don't think so; rather, I see it as a time period more in line with showcasing the story of profiting from artificial intelligence.
It's about showing that their customers are able to demonstrate that, hey, we are able to reach the next level in terms of showcasing larger AI use cases. If that happens, the entire artificial intelligence system will move in line with this trend.
So, once again, it's really all about proving that consistency and being able to maintain at least some of those margins over the next six to eight quarters. I am absolutely convinced of that.
You won't be able to maintain gross profit margins in the mid to late 80s in the long run, but you might be able to maintain a profit margin close to 70% or so. If we can see this environment in the long term, I think that bodes well for long-term investors.
But at this point in time, I think it's more about seeing that whole system actually evolve and seeing free cash flow continue to show what it just did this quarter.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 20 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。