预计 1 至 1.5 年后内存芯片将出现供给过剩，利润率崩塌至 10-20%，推动 MU 股价跌至 300 美元。
逐段跳播
此外，我们看到Micron公布的财报全面向好，营收和盈利均超出预期，并给出了更高的指引。但该股并没有上涨，主要是因为所有人都预期它会超预期，而这个超预期幅度不足以在短期内把股价推得更高。
In addition, we saw Micron reporting good earnings across the board, beating revenue and earnings expectations and guiding higher. But that stock is not rallying mainly because everyone expected a beat and it wasn't a big enough beat to push the stock even higher in the near term.
听着，我到现在还没有真正谈过Micron。我们得看看Micron，尽管它的波动并不大。我们现在就来看一下。这是Micron财报后的走势。起初它先跳水，然后拉升，然后又跳水，然后又拉升，然后又跳水，你可以看到，在稳定下来之后，它基本上没怎么动。
它略微走低，但基本上也就是下跌1%或更少。如果我们看日线图，我一直在关注的是，在这条较长期的日线趋势线上出现跳水时买入，或者在缺口回补时做空。今天这两个机会我都不会得到。它的波动实在太小，甚至都不值得考虑做日内交易。
我是说，也许如果它跌到10:15，跌到这个下方的缺口回补位，也许会有做多Micron的日内交易机会。但除此之外，我会选择不参与，只是耐心等待，同时继续关注其他名字。
Now, listen, I haven't really talked yet about Micron. We've got to look at Micron, even though the move is not massive. Let's take a look at that right now. Here's Micron on earnings.
Initially, it flushed, then it popped, then it flushed, then it popped, then it flushed, and and you can see essentially it didn't do a whole lot once it settled down. It is slightly lower, but we're talking about basically 1% lower or less.
And if we go to the daily chart, I was eyeing a flush to buy here on this longer term daily trend line or a short at gap fill. You're not I'm not going to get either opportunity today.
It's literally not moving enough to even think about as a day trade. I mean, maybe if it drops to 10:15, this gap fill down here, maybe there'll be a day trade opportunity to go long on Micron.
But aside from that, I'm going to sit out of it and just wait patiently while we keep an eye on other names.
我觉得有意思的头条新闻之一是，Micron的CEO说他不确定这些基本上新的软件，或者我应该说来自工厂的新芯片、新存储芯片何时会投产。我认为这有点令人担忧。所以，他们在盈利上超预期，在营收上超预期，还上调了指引。
但当CEO说他也不确定大量新芯片何时会涌入市场并压低利润率时，这多少会让人有点紧张。我认为这在一定程度上就是目前发生的情况。
Now, one of the top stories that I thought was interesting is is that the CEO of Micron said that he wasn't sure when the essentially new software or I should say new chips, new memory chips from factories will come online.
And I think that was a little concerning. So, they beat on earnings, they beat on revenue, they raised guidance. But when you have the CEO saying he's not sure about when a lot of new chips are going to flood the market and drive margins down, that kind of makes people a little bit nervous.
And I think that's partially what's going on here.
记得在2025年，我们看到、听到Deepseek有一个来自中国的模型已经做到了这一点，所有这些股票都下跌了30%到50%。现在，我不是说这次也会这样，但我的观点是，技术会进步到我们需要更少的存储、更少的内存，同时新工厂不断投产。
我预测在一年到一年半内，我们会看到市场上出现存储芯片供应过剩，以至于利润率从现在的80%暴跌到10%到20%。这样一来，Micron很可能在一年半内跌到每股300美元。我知道这听起来很吓人，但它很可能会发生。
Remember in 2025 we saw we heard Deepseek had a model from China that already did this and all these stocks sold off 30 to 50%. Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen now, but I'm my point is is that the technology will advance where we need less storage and less memory and new factories coming online.
I predict within a year, year and a half, we will see a glut of memory chips on the market to the point where margins collapse down to 10 to 20% from the 80% that they're with.
With that, Micron probably eventually within a year and a half is down to $300 a share. I know that sounds scary, but um it likely will happen.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 7 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。