MU 前景强劲，但在实现轻松获利后，预计回报将逐步释放，而非加速增长。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下美光的股价走势图。鉴于我们昨天收到了财报，业绩非常出色。然而，目前股价已下跌2.5%。很明显，自年初以来我们看到了三位数的涨幅。我们在11月见顶，或者我该说是6月。在这些业绩公布之前，股价基本处于横盘状态。
Let's focus on the Micron stock chart. Given that we received the earnings results yesterday, they were amazing. However, we are down 2.5 percent now. It is clear that we have seen this triple-digit increase since the beginning of the year.
We reached the peak in November, or should I say in June. We were trading largely sideways before these results were released.
但让我们来谈谈本季度的业绩以及今天的市场反应，因为这才是《晨间交易》关注的焦点。正如你和我一起分析这些数字时所见，市场反应确实很有意思。你当时就在想，是否出现了什么小故障，以及为什么当时市场没有走高。
But let's talk about the results of this quarter and today's reaction, as that is the focus of "Morning Trade". As you and I analyzed these numbers, the reaction was really interesting.
You were wondering exactly if there was any minor glitch, and why the markets weren't trading higher at that moment.
Sam，这和我们昨天看到的情况差不多。有一些利润率方面的迹象，以及那里存在轻微压缩。对资本支出的担忧，但没有重大警告。只是这份报告存在一些小问题，并受到了过度审视。
Sam, it's a lot of what we were looking at yesterday. A few signs of the margins and the presence of slight compression there. Concerns about capital expenditures, but no major warnings.
But it's just minor issues and excessive scrutiny when it comes to this report.
因此，我们继续看到决定性的下跌走势，但跌幅没有期权市场定价的那么大，期权市场定价的跌幅略高于7%。我的意思是，他们在利润上表现超预期。他们发布了强劲的指引。数据中心收入增长了11倍，因为他们继续受益于人工智能基础设施需求的增长。
每股收益达到33.42美元，而预期为31.61美元。收入较上年第四季度几乎翻了两番，达到542.3亿美元。华尔街的预期约为510亿美元。所以，业绩远好于预期。至于指引，他们预计收入约为615亿美元。
所以，那里还有更多增长。每股收益将跃升至38.15美元。这是预期。这两项指标也都超出了分析师的预期。
Thus, we continue to see a decisive move downwards, but not to the extent that the options market was pricing in, which was slightly above 7%. I mean, they outperformed in profits.
They issued strong directives. Data center revenues saw an 11-fold jump as they continued to benefit from the growing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure . Earnings per share reached $33.42 compared to the expected $31.61 .
Revenues nearly quadrupled compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. Where it amounted to $54.23 billion. Wall Street's expectations were around $51 billion. So, the results are much better than expected .
As for guidance, they are forecasting revenues of approximately $61.5 billion. So, there's more to come there . Earnings per share will jump to $38.15. This is the expectation.
Both of these indicators also exceeded analysts' expectations.
他们的股价今年上涨了500%。其中很大一部分是由内存价格和供应短缺推动的。仅本季度，随机存取存储器（DRAM）收入就同比增长超过340%，达到398亿美元。这约占总销售额的73%。
Their stock has risen by 500% this year. A large part of that is driven by memory prices and the shortage of supply. Random Access Memory (DRAM) revenues in this quarter alone rose by more than 340 % compared to last year, reaching $39.8 billion .
This represents approximately 73% of total sales.
当我们看投资时，资本支出是这里的另一个担忧，因为他们表示计划增加支出。他们正在投资2500亿美元建设两个新的高带宽内存制造综合体。他们于1月启动了纽约其中一个厂址的建设。他们在爱达荷州博伊西还有一个新工厂，计划于明年开始运营。
关于他们的预测，至少就第一财季而言，他们预计资本支出为115亿美元。2027财年上半年预计约为250亿美元，但他们表示下半年的支出预计将比上半年更高。
When we look at investment, capital spending was another concern here, as they said they plan to increase spending. They are investing $250 billion to build two new high-bandwidth memory manufacturing complexes .
They started work on one of the New York sites in January. They also have a new factory in Boise, Idaho, which is scheduled to begin operations next year. Regarding their projections, at least for the first fiscal quarter, they anticipate capital expenditure of $11.5 billion.
The first half of fiscal year 2027 is expected to be around $25 billion, but they stated that spending for the second half is expected to be even higher than the first half.
所以，我认为可能存在一些担忧，但高盛的分析师维持中性评级。他们维持1100美元的目标价。目前，我们大约在1040美元。他们表示，在季度业绩和指引远超预期之后，他们预计股价将小幅上涨，尽管缺乏毛利率指引，而这一点与投资者较高的预期形成了对比。
所以，再次提到了指引。他们还表示，投资者预计将关注资本支出预测的潜在更新。
So, I think there are perhaps some concerns, but analysts at Goldman Sachs have maintained a neutral rating. They are holding a target price of $1100. Currently, we are at around $1040.
They say they expect the stock to rise slightly after a quarter and guidance that were well above estimates, despite the lack of gross margin guidance that was set against high investor expectations.
So, once again, there is a reference to the guidelines. They also say that investors expect to focus on potential updates to capital spending forecasts.
摩根大通重申其相对增持评级。他们给出1540美元的目标价，称公司交出了强劲的季度业绩，超出预期并上调了目标。他们更倾向于其关于供需紧张的最新观点。他们表示已确认资本回报几乎确定会发生转变。
他们表示，从今往后几年，公司有着强劲的盈利前景。
We have JPMorgan reaffirming its relative overweight rating. They have a price target of $1,540, saying the company delivered a strong quarter that exceeded expectations and raised its targets.
They prefer their updated view on the tightness of supply and demand. They say they have confirmed a near-certain shift in capital returns . They say they have a strong story of profitability for several years from now on.
摩根士丹利表示，在过去三个季度中，公司每股收益超出市场共识预期20%至40%，但昨晚仅超出5%，超出预期6%，这可能成为美光未来愿景的新常态。他们维持相对增持评级和1200美元的目标价。
Morgan Stanley says that over the past three quarters , the company has beaten consensus estimates for earnings per share by 20 to 40%, but last night it beat only 5% and exceeded expectations by 6%, which may be the new normal for Micron's vision of the future.
They maintain a relative overweight rating and a price target of $1200.
Gabelli Funds今早发布了一份报告，称业绩再次强劲并超出预期，但指出，在现阶段，我还没有听到任何负面数据表明内存周期会在可预见的未来很快转向下滑。所以，关于可见度以及这轮内存需求周期的可持续性，有很多疑问，而从分析师的评论来看，这轮周期似乎保持得相当不错，Sam。
Gabelli Funds issued a note this morning saying that the results were once again strong and exceeded expectations, but noted that at this stage I have not heard any negative data that would suggest the memory cycle is reversing toward decline anytime soon in the foreseeable future.
So, there are a lot of questions about the visibility, and about the sustainability of this memory request cycle, which seems to be holding up pretty well if you look at the analysts' comments, Sam.
是的，当然。该股目前下跌2.3%。非常感谢这些细节，Molly，以及分析师们的反应。多么出色的报告。Molly的点评真的很好。出色的利润，出色的公司。自年初以来上涨500%，表现惊人。
但我认为，其中一些容易赚到的利润已经在公司身上兑现了。不要指望明年这个时候还能再获得500%的回报。我更多考虑的是逐步而持续的回报。所以，仅仅因为它最近实现了出色的回报，并不意味着它不能达到创纪录的水平。
我只是不会押注其增长会以近期同样的速度加快。所以，一家伟大的公司，一个伟大的未来。
Yes, of course. The stock is currently trading down 2.3. I really appreciate these details, Molly, and the analysts' reactions. What a fantastic report. A really good review from Molly.
Fantastic profits, and a fantastic company. Up 500 % since the beginning of the year, an amazing performance. But I think that some of those easy profits have already been realized in the company .
Don't expect another 500% return at this time next year. I'm thinking more about a gradual and continuous return. So, just because it has achieved a great return recently does not mean that it cannot reach record levels.
I just wouldn't bet on its growth accelerating at the same recent pace. So, a great company, and a great future.
基于此，我认为美光尽管利润惊人，但今天受到了市场的影响。我相信，一旦油价企稳、利率停止上升，市场就会开始复苏。具体来说，像美光这样的大公司将看到需求增加。因此，我会等待它回归正常轨道，并利用这次下跌买入。
我会通过卖出一份长期看涨期权来做到这一点，直到3月。我将在3月以1400美元的价格卖出看涨期权。目前，我们在美光上大约处于1040或1030美元。所以还有很大的上涨空间，我希望在这里捕捉超过30%的收益。
我会收到一笔权利金，以减轻这段时间内下跌的风险。
Based on that, I believe that Micron is affected by the market today despite its amazing profits. I believe that once oil prices calm down and interest rates stop rising, the market will begin to recover.
Specifically, large companies like Micron will see increased demand. Therefore, I will wait for it to return to its normal course and I will take advantage of this drop to buy.
I will do this by selling a long-term call option until March. I will sell the call option at a price of 1400 in March. Currently, we are at approximately 1040 or 1030 in the " micron" range.
So there is a lot of room for growth, and I'm looking to capture more than 30% here. I will receive a premium to mitigate the risk of a downturn during that time .
我们看到美光现在正从低点回升。我们在整个内存板块也看到了这一点。所以，让我们看看接下来会发生什么。
We see Micron recovering from its lows now. We see this across the memory sector as well. So, let's see what happens.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 18 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。