MU 的结构性逻辑正在增强，近期股价疲软是自然的洗盘，而非市场顶部。
逐段跳播
欢迎大家。又到了美光时间。我和我的好朋友 J.R. Romero 一起在这里，聊聊美光以及所有与 AI 相关的话题。
Welcome everybody. It is Micron time. I'm here with my good friend J.R. Romero to talk Micron and all things AI.
就是美光。这可能是接下来几周里最后一份重要财报。那么，Jr.，我屏幕上有一张表格，列着美光的季度每股收益，涵盖美光最近两个周期性高峰，你可以看到他们当时每股赚 353，然后是 259，而现在他们做到超过 33，而且
It's Micron. It's maybe maybe the last big earnings report for like um the next couple weeks. So, Jr. I have um table on the screen with Micron quarterly EPS like through the the last two sort [clears throat] of cyclical peaks in Micron you could see they were making like 353 a share then 259 and now they're doing over 33 and
外面最大的问题是，你认为这对 AI、尤其是对美光来说，是不是已经好到头了？
the big question out there is like [snorts] do you think this is as good as it gets for AI and Micron specifically?
我看到很多惊慌失措的人在说，这份财报标志着美光的顶峰。这就是泡沫的顶点。美光交出了一份极其庞大、彻底工业化的财报，让我大为震惊。我原本预期是一份不错的财报。我没想到会是这样的财报。
I I'm seeing a lot of panicked people saying, you know, this uh this earnings report marks the peak in Micron. This is the the peak of the bubble. Micron had a gargantuan parameal industrialized earnings report that uh blew me away.
And I was I was expecting um I was expecting uh a good earnings report. I wasn't expecting this kind of report.
现在，人们会以各种方式解读这里的价格走势。我不认为这对接下来一两天来说完全重要。我认为我们正在经历一个自然的洗盘过程。
Now uh [clears throat] uh you know people are going to uh people are going to interpret the price action here in a variety of ways. I don't think it's completely material for the next day or two.
I I think we're going to uh I think I think we're going through a natural shakeout process here.
你们在交易美光吗？你们是不是很恼火？你们觉得它应该上涨吗？
Are are you guys trading Micron? Are are you aggravated? Do you think it should be up?
还有美光，提醒大家一下，美光往往不会在财报后上涨。看起来，过去几个季度里只有三个季度在财报后第二天上涨。我们需要看看你给我们准备的这张漂亮的美光图表。
And Micron and and just a reminder folks, Micron tends not to rally after earnings. It looks like um one, two, three, one, two, five of the only three of the last day quarters did it rally the day after earnings.
We we need to see this beautiful Micron chart you got for us.
当然。这就是美光的图表。好。我看到的是，我看着这张图表，立刻就开始流口水。这看起来太离谱了。就结果而言，我们说的是非 GAAP 每股收益 3342，对比 3182。一个巨大的超预期，然后是营收。
抓紧你的裤子。你系好安全带、穿上成人纸尿裤了吗？本季度 54 亿，对比 51.5 亿美元？这简直疯狂。指引是第一季度 60 到 603 亿，非 GAAP 每股收益 37 到 39，GAAP 毛利率，哦不，抱歉，还有 GAAP 每股收益 368 到 386。
我的意思是，他们交出的数字简直要把我的眉毛都烧掉了。我们说的是 87% 的毛利率。你怎么能在制造微芯片时做出这样的利润率，是在爱达荷州，还有一些在韩国？这简直疯狂。
Sure. So, this is the Micron chart. Okay. And um what I see here um is like I I look at this chart and uh I immediately just start salivating. This is looks This is ridiculous.
So, we have a uh in terms of uh you know results here um we're talking um uh non-GAAP EPS at 3342 versus 3182. A huge beat and then revenue. Grab on your plan aloon. Do you have a a good set of belts on and some adult diapers on the quarter 54 and a quarter versus 51.5 billion dollars?
Okay, I mean this is absolutely insane. the guidance 60 to 603 billion uh for quarter one non-GAAP EPS at um 37 to 39 uh GAP uh gross margin oh no sorry um and GAP EPS uh 368 to 386 uh [sighs and gasps] I mean they delivered numbers that uh are just going to they're just they scorched the the the eyebrows off my face.
We're talking about 87% gross margin. Uh you know, how do you pull off margins like this making micro chips in was it Idaho and some in Korea? It's absolutely insane.
结构性逻辑没有减弱，反而增强了，对吧？那些唱反调的人不仅被证明是错的，而且被彻底嘲笑。
Uh the structural thesis hasn't weakened, it has strengthened, right? Uh the naysayers were not just proved wrong, but freaking ridiculed.
美光现在有 26 份战略客户协议，这占其到 2030 年预估营收的 35%。320 亿美元的客户财务承诺。HBM 需求依然爆棚。我的意思是，这些人简直处于心脏病发作模式，拼命想跟上 HBM 内存的需求。
而且他们 2027 年绝大部分 HBM 供应已经以显著更高的价格签约。未来看起来一片光明。数据中心 SSD 营收达到近 100 亿、100 亿美元，老兄。
Uh Micron has uh now 26 strategic customer agreements and that's 35% of their estimated revenue through 2030. Um 32 billion uh dollars of customer financial commitments. The HBM demand remains through the roof.
I mean these people are in like heart attack mode just trying to keep up um uh with the HBM memory. Um [clears throat] uh and uh their vast majority of their 2027 um HBM supply uh has already been uh contracted at significantly higher prices.
The future looks bright. Data center SSD revenue reached nearly 10 billion10 billion dollar dude.
人们在说，美光在这里遭到抛售，是因为我们不知怎么已经到达了市场顶部，这太荒谬了。
you know people are saying h you know micron selling off uh here because we have you know we have we have somehow reached the top of the market is preposterous
这是 38，呃，是多少？24 倍的市盈率，24。美光的远期盈利是多少，40？这简直荒谬。他们有 4 倍增长。是的，抱歉。是的，市盈率是 24。你在开玩笑吗？不，不是。是 7。嗯，考虑到最新的情况，我认为现在是 24。
但你知道，我的意思是，你有一个 24 的远期盈利，毛利率 86%，总营收同比增长 4 倍，这是我理解读到的。
It is a 38 uh what is it? 24 times the PH ratio of 24. What's the forward earnings for Micron 40? It's freaking preposterous. They had 4x growth. Yeah, I'm sorry. Yeah, the 4 P is 24. [laughter] Are you kidding me?
No, it's not. It's it's it's seven. Well, it's I think it's 24 now given the the latest. But uh but you know, I mean, you got a forward earnings of 24 with a gross margin of 86% and 4x growth year-over-year in terms of gross revenue is what I what I think I I understood to read.
你看，当需求见顶、市场过度饱和、公司失去财务护城河或竞争优势时，你会看到公司见顶。这些事情一件都没发生。当它们失去主要供应商、无法交付时，这些情况全都在变好，而不是变坏，对吧？
and look look you you you'll see companies peak out when you have values of demand when the market is oversaturated when companies lose their fiscal moat or their competitive mode.
None of these things are happening. when they lose major suppliers, when they're unable to deliver, not these things are all getting better, they're all getting worse, right?
所以，我觉得唱反调的人在这里是错的。你当唱反调的人时总是显得很聪明，对吧？因为大众往往是对的，但你看这样一张图表，我告诉你，哇塞。好吧，绝对哇塞。
So, you know, I I I feel the naysayers are wrong here. It's you always look you always look smart when you're a naysayer, right? Because the crowd always tends to be right, but like you look at a chart like this and I'm telling you, wowza. Okay, absolutely wowza.
昨天我们在直播间里实时交易 Micron 的图表，做了一次实时的盘口解读，我告诉我的交易员们：“好，伙计们，当我们在盘中突破 1083 后失败，就在盘后那个位置，我告诉我的交易员们，对，就在这里。
我们当时看的是 1 分钟和 2 分钟图，但我告诉他们：‘好，伙计们，派对结束了。我要卖出 Micron。’我们在 1050 多和 1060 多的位置买入 Micron，一路持有到 1086。当它跌到 1080 时，我们已经出场了。”
Now, we were trading the micron chart yesterday uh uh live in our room and we did a live tape read of it and I told my traders, "Okay, I I said, "Okay, guys, when we got through 1083 here and failed and in the in the after hours right there, I told my traders, uh yeah, right, uh right here.
I mean, we were watching the one and two minute chart, but I told him, "Okay, guys, party's over. I'm selling Micron." We bought Micron uh in the 1050s and the 1060s, rode it to 108 1086. When it fell 1080, we were out.
为什么？因为 Micron 这里有一个巨大的上方供给区。如果你看 Micron 的小时图，你会看到大约 2000 万到 2500 万股在这个位置附近成交，就在 1080 附近。
而这还只是第一轮。甚至还不包括第一次上攻的尝试。所以有巨量的上方供给需要被消化，这将在未来几天内发生。
Why? Because uh there's a massive overhead supply zone in Micron here. Okay, if you look at an hourly chart of Micron, what you'll see is about 20 million to 25 million shares traded. um right at right around right around here 1080.
Okay. And that's just on on this first go around. It doesn't even even include uh the this the the first uh peing attempt. So there's a tremendous amount of overhead supply that needs to be absorbed and that's going to happen in the next few days.
有时候你必须面对供需的现实，卖方就在上方。所以为了让市场真正上涨并给 Micron 重新定价，那些卖方的卖单必须被承接消化。Micron 在 1080 附近有大量卖方，至少有 2000 万到 3000 万股需要被消化。
当这种情况发生时，这就是基本的威科夫分析入门。想象一下这是你的上方供给区，它不是一条简单的线。
Okay, sometimes you have to deal with the reality of supply and demand and sellers being there above. So in order for the market to you know uh actually advance and repric Micron right those sellers have to be serviced in terms of their their their offers being taken and Micron right around um right around 1080 has a a ton of sellers uh at least 20 30 million shares that need to be absorbed right and when something like that happens in terms and this is basic like woff analysis 101 right so imagine this is your overhead supply zone it's not a simple line.
就说这条红线。我把它画大一点，画成虚线。就是这条大的虚线。它大概在这两者之间。你有巨量的卖方。那些卖方需要被消化。他们想回本，他们之前出局了，对吧？或者他们至少想要有翻红的可能性。
这样他们才能决定怎么做。这整个过程需要一些时间。Micron 并不以大幅盈利后大涨而闻名，这是百分之百的事实。
Okay, so say this red line right here. I'm going to make it big [clears throat] and uh dotted for you. Okay, the dotted the big dotted line right here. Okay, it's somewhere between here and here.
You have just a massive amount of sellers. Okay, those sellers need to be absorbed. Okay, they want to break even. they went out, right? Or they want at least the possib the the probability of being green.
So then they can decide what to do. This entire process is going to take some time. Micron is not known for being a big earnings runner, which is 100% true.
如果你只看这张图表的基本结构，这就是 Richard Woff 所说的带有最终震仓的再吸筹结构。这里是拉升阶段。回测，自动回测，二次测试。然后最终，在财报后，我们经历了一次大幅震仓。
And if you just look at the basic structure of this chart here, uh this is what Richard Woff would call a a reaccumulative structure with a final shake out. Okay. This was the markup right here.
Retest, automatic retest, secondary test. Okay. And then finally, uh uh post earnings. We had a big shakeout.
今早震仓之后我们做了什么？大约 10:25 的时候有人问我：“你对 Micron 的下行目标是多少？”我说：“完蛋了，别想在这里做空 Micron，除非你想被打脸。”你正处于一个巨大的需求区。
And what do we do right after the shakeout this morning? I had somebody asking me at around 10:25, somebody asked me, "What's your downside target on uh on Micron?" I said, "Kaput fenito, don't even think about shorting Micron here unless you want to get slapped in the face."
Okay, you're in a massive massive uh demand zone.
这就是为什么，连分析师都需要补一点技术分析的基础课。他们看着这个位置，以为这里是破位，然后会这样走。但实际上，真正发生的情况要更微妙一些。实际发生的是，我们做了这个动作。我们在这里震仓向下，现在我们要 V 型反转向上。
我们会回撤。我们会回测高点，然后我们就要起飞了。然后我们就要起飞了。
And this is this is why, you know, even analysts needed a little bit of remedial technical analysis. They were looking at this level here and they were thinking, okay, here's the breakdown and going like this.
When in reality, what's actually happening is a little bit more subtle. Okay, what's actually happening is we're about, you know, we we did this thing. We shook down here and now we're going to V up.
We're going to pull back. We're going to retest the highs and then we're going to go, baby. And then we're gonna go.
既然那些分析师，那些可怜的分析师需要补一点技术分析的基础课，那我们就做一个基本的测量移动。他们连优先股和牲口都分不清。
Let's do a basic measured moving micro since all those analysts, those poor analysts need some remedial technical analysis. They don't they don't know preferred stock from livestock.
所以，有两个测量移动。一个测量移动来自这里，这叫做控制点。如果把三个整理区加起来，这是 Micron 成交量最高和第二高的位置。是 928 到 1099。所以你从这里到这里画一条直线。
你就得到了 123436。这是小的那个移动。下面是大的那个。这给你的是，到 12 月底、1 月初，我们就说是明年第一季度，它们会移动到 1434。1434 听起来不错。
So, there's two measured moves. There's a measured move from uh this is called point of control. This is the most the highest the second highest volume uh for Micron if you add all three consolidations.
That's 928 uh to 1099. Okay. So you draw yourself a line straight from here to here. Okay? And you got yourself 123436. And that's the small move. Here's the big the big fell. Okay.
And that gives you uh by late December, early January, let's just say quarter one next year, they move to 1434. 1434 sounds good.
你说的是 Dram。还记得吗？两周前，你说的是 DRAM。对。Dram 表现很好。
You said Dram. Remember that? Two weeks ago, you said DRAM. Yeah. Dram's doing great.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
T3 Live 在这只股票上共 12 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。