MU 基本面（利润率、HBM 合约）强劲，看空情绪是错误的，但价格上行前必须先消化 1080 美元附近的套牢盘供给。

They delivered numbers that uh are just gonna they're just they scorch the the eyebrows off my face. We're talking about 87% gross margin. Uh you know, how do you pull off margins like this making micro chips in was it Idaho and some in Korea? It's absolutely insane.

Uh Micro has uh now 26 strategic customer agreements and that's 35% of their estimated revenue through 2030. Um 32 billion uh dollars of customer financial commitments. The HBM demand remains through the roof.

I mean, these people are in like heart attack mode, just trying to keep up um uh with the HPM memory.

uh and uh their vast majority of their 2027 um HBM supply uh has already been uh contracted at significantly higher prices.

data center SSD revenue reached nearly 10 billion10 billion dollars dude. So you know people saying h you know micron selling off uh here because we have you know we have we have somehow reached the top of the market is preposterous.

It is at 38 uh what is it? 24 times the PH ratio of 24. What's the forward earnings for Micron? 40. You got a forward earnings of 24 with a gross margin of 86% and 4x growth year-over-year in terms of gross revenue is what I what I think I I understood to read.

and look look you you you'll see companies peak out when you have values of demand when the market is oversaturated when companies lose their fiscal moat or their competitive mode.

None of these things are happening. When they lose major suppliers, when they're unable to deliver, not these things are all getting better, they're all getting worse, right?

Now, we were trading the micron chart yesterday uh uh live in our room and we did a live tape read of it and I told my traders, "Okay, I I said, "Okay, guys, when we got through 1083 here and failed and in the in the after hours right there, I told my traders, uh yeah, right, uh right here.

I mean, we were watching the one and two minute chart, but I told him, "Okay, guys, party's over. I'm selling Micron." We bought Migron uh in the 1050s and the 1060s, rode it to 108 1086.

When it fell 1080, we were out. Why? Because uh there's a massive overhead supply zone in in Micron here.

Okay, if you look at an hourly chart of Micron, what you'll see is about 20 million to 25 million shares traded. um right at right around right around here 1080. Okay. And that's just on on this first go around.

It doesn't even even include uh the this the first uh peing attempt. So there's a tremendous amount of overhead supply that needs to be absorbed and that's going to happen in the next few days.

So in order for the market to you know uh actually advance and repric Micron right those sellers have to be serviced in terms of their their their offers being taken and Micron right around um right around 1080 has a a ton of sellers uh at least 20 30 million shares that need to be absorbed right

Micron is not known for being a big earnings runner, which is 100% true. And if you just look at the basic structure of this chart here, uh this is what Richard Woff would call a a reaccumulative structure with a final shake out.

Okay. This was the markup right here, retest, automatic retest, secondary test. Okay. And then finally, uh uh post earnings, we had a big shakeout.

I said, "Kaput fenito, don't even think about shorting Micron here unless you want to get slapped in the face." Okay, you're in a massive massive uh demand zone. what's actually happening is we're about, you know, we we did this thing.

We shook down here and now we're going to V up. We're going to pull back. We're going to retest the highs and then we're going to go, baby. And then we're gonna go.

There's two measured moves. There's a measured move from uh this is called point of control. This is the most the highest the second highest volume uh for Micron if you add all three consolidations.