MU 基本面因 AI/HBM 需求而强劲，但估值偏高，仅在回调至约 950 美元时买入。

Micron just announced its earnings, and I'm not simply using the word "sweep," but those numbers were truly phenomenal. Micron has just announced quarterly revenues of $54.2 billion .

This represents an increase of approximately 380% compared to what it was just one year ago.

Adjusted earnings reached $33.42 per share . And if you think those numbers are impressive, wait until you see what Micron has told us about the next quarter, where management is forecasting revenue of around $61.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $38.15.

Both exceeded what Wall Street analysts had expected. These are incredible numbers, but here's what's interesting. Micron's stock barely moved after trading hours, and the following day saw a decline.

Okay, let's go back to Micron to quickly analyze the results and explain what is driving this unreasonable growth , which is indeed unreasonable. We'll talk about what management told us on the conference call, and more importantly, is Micron stock still worth buying?

Because the stock has already seen a tremendous rise, a great earnings report does not necessarily mean that the stock is a great buy.

Macron didn't just exceed expectations. The business has achieved an explosion in a positive sense. Revenues reached $54.2 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $51 billion . So, this is a major and significant overreach.

But look at all this compared to last year. Micron made just 11.32 billion , and I shouldn't say "just" because that's a lot of money, but 11.32 billion just 12 months ago. Today we are talking about $54.23 billion.

The same quarter as 12 months ago. Growth of 379%.

This is not normal growth in the semiconductor sector. This is an industry undergoing tremendous change. And the profits were even more insane. Adjusted earnings per share have risen from about $3.03 a year ago to $33.42 today.

This is more than 10 times the increase in adjusted earnings per share.

This is the first thing investors need to understand about Micron. This is not just a story about selling more memory. We are seeing greater volume, significantly stronger pricing , a richer product mix , and increased demand due to artificial intelligence.

All of this is directly reflected in Micron's profit margins.

So, let's take a look at those margins. This might actually be my favorite number in the report. Micron's adjusted gross profit margins reached 87%. Think about that for a moment.

Micron is a company specializing in memory. Historically, memory companies have been highly cyclical in nature, and are among the most volatile areas of the semiconductor industry .

Supply increases , prices fall and margins collapse, manufacturers reduce production, supply decreases and prices recover, and the cycle begins again.

But currently, Micron operates in a very limited display environment. This allows the company to achieve economics unlike those Micron investors were accustomed to just a few years ago.

The main reason behind this is undoubtedly artificial intelligence.

This is why high-bandwidth memory has become a very important component in modern artificial intelligence accelerators. Micron is one of the few companies in the world that manufactures it on a large scale, and this puts Micron in the driver's seat. A driver's seat that only a very few possess.

Companies like Apple have not even been able to exert their influence on Micron, which was one of the main reasons behind the recent price increases across its entire product portfolio.

Micron said its HBM revenues grew faster than the company as a whole during the quarter, and it has now completed agreements covering the vast majority of its 2027 HBM supply with significant year-on-year price increases .

There is another detail that I believe investors should pay close attention to. Micron is working with Nvidia on the industry's first dedicated application for HBM4E, also known as NV-HBM, designed for Nvidia's next-generation GPU platforms and NVLink Fusion.

This is important because it shows that memory is not just a marginal commodity outside the artificial intelligence system. In fact, it has become an increasingly integral part of the performance of these systems.

Those were the results, but after the results are announced comes the conference call in which management can reveal more information. And here was what I believe was the most important comment in the call, which really caught my attention .

Micron does not believe that memory loss is about to disappear.

In fact, the administration stated that it expects the supply and demand environment to become even tighter in 2027 and 2028 compared to this year. The administration essentially said they currently do not have a clear vision of when supply and demand will return to balance.

This is a very positive statement regarding memory prices, and it gets even more exciting. Customers are essentially trying to book supplies years in advance. Micron said customer commitments under long-term supply agreements rose from $ 22 billion in June to $32 billion.

The company’s remaining performance obligations under those agreements also increased from about 100 billion to 150 billion in the last quarter.

This is an amazing insight into a business that has historically been known to be highly cyclical. This is a large part of the debate surrounding investment in Micron. So, is this time different?

Whenever you hear the phrase "this time is different" as an investor, you should immediately raise your senses because Micron has experienced tremendous leaps in memory in the past.

Demand rises, prices climb, manufacturers increase their production capacity, and supply eventually catches up with demand . Prices are collapsing.

This is why investors have historically been unwilling to give Micron the same valuation multiple as other semiconductor companies or even companies like Nvidia , which is actually quite low .

The market assumes that peak earnings will not last, and this explains something very important about the stock. Although Micron is generating incredible profits, the stock still looks surprisingly cheap on a forward price-to-earnings basis , because Wall Street is not questioning whether Micron is making a profit today, but rather how sustainable those profits are.

This is the crux of the entire debate. When you look at earnings forecasts, next year looks huge too, but then they decline, and that is the question on investors’ minds that they should be asking themselves.

We have witnessed these memory cycles time and time again. Supply becomes tighter, demand increases, prices rise, the stock climbs, and then supply catches up, as I just mentioned.

But will that happen this time? That is the question you should ask yourself.

This explains the arrow's reaction. This is perhaps the most important part of the video. Micron has achieved phenomenal profits by all measures. It crushed revenue forecasts, and it crushed earnings per share forecasts.

It provided better guidance than expected. However, after trading hours and on the following day, the stock's performance was lackluster. In fact, it was red.

Why? Because expectations for Micron were already extremely high. The stock has already seen a tremendous rise. Everyone already knew that the supply of memory was scarce. Everyone already knew that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) was exploding.

This is nothing new. Everyone already knew that spending on artificial intelligence was still strong.

Therefore, Micron is not evaluated based on whether profits are good. Rather, it is evaluated based on whether the earnings are better than the huge expectations already built into the stock. This is a completely different challenge .

This leads us to the question that everyone wants answered. Is Micron stock worth buying? Here's how I see it . There are three things I absolutely love about Micron. First, the demand for artificial intelligence memory.

The development of artificial intelligence infrastructure continues and requires enormous amounts of memory. As models grow larger, context windows widen, inference usage expands, and AI clusters balloon, memory requirements increase. This is a real structural driving force.

Secondly, the supply is still scarce. This is not just management telling us that things look good for another quarter. They say demand is outpacing supply and could remain extremely tight , even more so than we saw this year in 2027 and 2028. This is huge for pricing and future growth.

Third, profits are exploding. We are not talking about a company that promises profitability five years from now. Micron just achieved $38.4 billion in adjusted net income in a single quarter. This is unbelievable.

But there are also two things that prevent me from simply saying "buy a Micron at any price" . The first thing is that this is still the memory sector. No matter how optimistic the artificial intelligence story is , I'm not going to pretend that memory suddenly stopped being cyclical.

Higher prices encourage more supply. Micron is increasing capital spending. SK Hynix is investing. Samsung as well . New factories are being built . Eventually, some of that supply reaches the market.

The crucial question is not whether the supply will grow, but that it will definitely grow. The question is, is the demand for AI memory growing faster than the industry can add supply?

If the answer is yes, this cycle may last much longer than previous memory cycles. If not, these exceptional margins will eventually return to normal .

The second risk: the stock already knows the story. This is probably my biggest concern for someone buying today. Micron's stock has already seen a tremendous rise. So, you don't discover high-bandwidth memory (HBM) before Wall Street.

You don't discover memory loss before Wall Street. You don't discover Micron's relationship with Nvidia before Wall Street .

The question is, what was actually taken into account when pricing the stock? That's why I don't simply look at the price-to-earnings ratio and say, well , Micron stock is cheap.

In cyclical businesses, a very low price-to-earnings ratio may sometimes appear near peak earnings.

So, after saying all this, what am I going to do? For me, these profits make the business premise much stronger. It confirms that the demand for AI memory remains extremely strong.

Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains strong. Prices remain strong. Supplies are still limited. And clients commit to injecting huge sums of capital years in advance.

So, basically, I liked Micron's stock even more after this report. It also makes me excited about the field of artificial intelligence in general. This is the deal. But as for Micron, I still think there's plenty of time for this stock to climb to higher levels.

The administration gave us a forward-looking view of what will happen during the next 12 months and beyond. It is a high-priced stock, so I cannot necessarily use a cash-backed put option strategy.

But if we see this stock return to around $950 per share, I will definitely be a buyer.

Because with Micron, the question is not whether the work is doing well, it clearly is. The question is , how long can this level of profitability last? This is what determines the amount I am willing to pay.

So, did Micron achieve massive profits? certainly. Revenues amounted to $54.2 billion . Adjusted earnings per share amounted to $33.42. Gross profit margins reached 87%. Revenue forecast for the next quarter is $61.5 billion .

The adjusted earnings per share forecast for the next quarter is $38.15. The administration believes that memory supplies may become more limited in 2027 and 2028.

This is a startling report. But remember, great profits don't necessarily mean buying at any price. For me, this report confirms that Micron remains one of the most important ways to gain exposure to AI infrastructure building.

This reinforces my entire hypothesis that the field of artificial intelligence will continue to grow, not slow down.

But I will wait for a pullback to enter the center. Alternatively, you can also gain exposure through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as DRAM.